EFL expert, The Betting Desk, returns with his weekly betting previews and best bets in England’s Football League.
Peterborough vs Cambridge
Posh have gone W6-D1-L1 at home this season scoring an average of 2.50 goals per home fixture. They have the flat track bullies of League One having a home record in this division of W21-D6-L4 with two of these defeats coming to Hull City and Blackpool in the 2020/21 season, both of whom were promoted that season. Their record against bottom half sides is W14-D4-L1 whilst finding the net at least twice in 79% of these games. They have only failed to score at home in three of their last 31 home games at this level.
So far this season their home performances have been good no side having a higher home xG than Posh with 1.80 per game. They have the most shots, shots on target, and shots on the target in the box and the 2nd highest shots in the box. They have great attacking ability all over the pitch with the likes of Clarke- Harris, Marriott and Poku. They will set up to attack Cambridge and whilst the away side might find a way onto the scoresheet, I am not sure the Us will be able to stop Posh.
Cambridge have an away record of W2-D1-L5 with victories over bottom-placed Morecambe and a surprise 3-2 midweek win at Wycombe. They were a little fortunate to win that game as they lost the xG battle 2.04 vs 1.24 conceding 24 shots and 10 shots on target. A repeat performance on Saturday at Peterborough will prove costly.
Cambridge have now conceded in every away game this season with an average of 2.0 concede per away fixture. Their defensive record is not great as they have now conceded two or more in five of their eight away games with a xGA of 1.06. Only two sides have conceded more goals on the road, and I have them in 16th place for shots on target conceded and 17th for away xPTS.
I am expecting Cambridge to try to sit back and defend as they have done so on the road to the better teams in the division. Posh have won an average of 7.50 corners at home this season, winning at least four or more in each of their eight home games this season. Cambridge have conceded an average of 5.5 corners on the road this term, conceding 4 or more in 6 of their eight games, although one of these games was against rock-bottom Morecambe.
- Peterborough to score over 1 goal and win over 3 corners is 5/6 with Bet365
Burnley vs Reading
Burnley had a very good result in midweek as they beat promotion rivals Norwich 1-0 and I am happy to back them again to beat Reading. Under Vincent Kompany Burnley have gone W4-D4-L0 at home scoring an average of 1.88 goals whilst conceding just 0.88. There is no doubt that Kompany has changed how Burnley play after a number of years under Dyche where results were more important that style or finesse. No side in the Championship has more passes per game than Burnley, whereas, under Dyche in the Premier League, only one side averaged fewer passes per game. It is a turnaround in style that has worked well and quickly. They should continue to improve as the players really start to adapt to the way of playing.
It wouldn’t surprise me if Reading find a way to score at the weekend. Despite being great going forward, the hosts do suffer at the back with an xGA of 1.01 and only four sides concede more shots on target at home and just one side concedes more shots on target in the box in their home fixtures. However, going forward they have the 3rd best xG with 1.4, 3rd highest shots on target and the 2nd highest scored at home.
Reading started the season well with four wins in their opening six games, but recently they struggled with now one win in their last five games. I have Reading 20th on away xPTS and 16th for away xG ratio. Attacking wise its not clever with just 0.79 xG and 0.71 goals scored per game. The Royals sit 21st for shots taken in their away games, 21st for shots on target and 22nd for shots in the box, yet despite having sitting 8th for shots conceded and 7th for shots on target against they have an xGA of 1.17 and only three sides concede more goals on the road. Reading have the lowest percentage of shots on targets to saves made in the Championship this season, with just 55% saved.
Reading have an away record of W2-D0-L5 with the wins over Millwall back in August and Wigan. They have now played five of the top half away from home and have a record of W1-D0-L4 conceding 13 goals, an average of 2.6 goals conceded per game.
I think Burnley will be too good for Reading and happy to back them to score twice or more but I want to be as risk-averse as possible and whilst I think they should win I want to boost the odds to score twice a little and take Burnley to avoid defeat as well.
- Burnley to score over 1 goal and Burnley double chance at 8/11 with Bet365
Colchester vs Stevenage
Colchester are in real problems this season look likely to drop out of the Football League come May. They have an owner who is constantly arguing with the fans, and they have just appointed another manager in rookie Matt Bloomfield, but he becomes their 5th manager since July 2020 with Wayne Brown taking on the role twice in that time. More recently he lasted just 10 months. The merry-go-round of managers can’t help, and their squad is an aging group who I am not sure are really up for the fight.
Matt Bloomfield might go onto have a successful career as a manager but surely, they needed to appoint someone with experience to get them out of this position. So far this season they have gone W2-D4-L9. Six of their 10 points this season have come against sides that sit 13th and below. They managed to beat Bradford at home back in mid-August, but they lose the xG battle 1.18 vs 0.59 scoring in the 97th minute from centre back Tom Eastman but that still left time for Bradford to hit a post! Since their opening two home games they have taken just four points at home – a 1-1 draw with Hartlepool with sit 24th and a 2-1 win over Harrogate who are 21st. They did pick up a point at home to Crawley midweek, but again lost the xG 0.95 vs 0.62, although did win the shot count 13 vs 7.
I have Colchester in 22nd on xPTS, 21st on xG ratio and 22nd on shots on target ratio, with only two sides conceding more shots on target in their home games and only four sides scoring fewer goals when playing at home. Its pretty dreadful at both ends.
Stevenage so far this season have a record of W11-D2-L3 with all their defeats coming to sides in the top seven against Northampton, Salford and Bradford, which means their record against sides outside of the play-offs is W10-D2-L0. I have them as the 3rd best away side in the division. Attacking metrics are very strong with only one side having more shots and just three sides have more shots on target and no side on the road has more shots in the box. At the back just 0.9 xGA with the 3rd lowest shots conceded and 5th fewest shots on target. Colchester will struggle to break this side down.
There is nothing pretty about Stevenage, but they generally find a way to win, and I am a little surprised by the odds here. You can back the away side to win the match at 23/20 which looks appealing, but I would rather be a little more reserved and take Stevenage with -0.25AH at 5/6 which again seems a good price. If the game ends in a draw, we get 50% of our stake back. A win for the visitors will see us get paid out in full.
- Stevenage -0.25AH at 5.6 with Bet365
