EFL expert, The Betting Desk, returns with his weekly betting previews and best bets in England’s Football League.
Millwall vs Blackburn
A massive game in the Championship as it is pretty much winner takes it all from the Den. A win for the hosts and they will be in the Play-offs and if Rovers win then they will leapfrog the Lions but will be hoping for Sunderland and WBA to drop points in order to the make the playoffs and given the opposition of the other two sies it’s a real possibility.
To add to the excitement and tension of the game, Craig Pawson has been the whistle and he should oblige with some cards. He has taken charge of 23 games this season and has averaged 4.09 cards per fixture with both sides collecting at least a card each in 83%. In the Championship he has taken charge of three games dishing out an average of 5.0 cards and giving both sides a card in all three. Given the importance of the game we should see some 2nd half cards as the pressure and frustration mounts for both sides. Pawson have given both sides a 2nd half card in 66% of his 23 games and in 100% of his Championship games.
The Lions have averaged 1.15 cards at home this term, collecting at least one card in 16 of 22 home games but they have seen 20 visiting sides to the Den pick up at least a booking. Rovers have collected an average of 2.24 cards this term, with a match average of 4.33 cards. On the road they have been awarded an average of 2.41 cards, collecting at least one card in 20 of their 22 games. Such is their disciplinary record they have been awarded at least two cards in 16 fixtures. Both sides have collected a card in 19.
At some point Rovers need to attack the Lions and then the game should open up. Millwall beat Blackpool 3-2 last time out and Rovers drew 1-1 with Luton, but we saw 27 shots in that game and a total xG of 3.31.
- Both sides over 0.5 2nd half cards, over 3.5 match goals and over 0.5 goals can be back at 10/11 with BetVictor.
Stockport vs Hartlepool
Stockport can still clinch an automatic promotion spot with a win over Hartlepool and Northampton failing to win at Tranmere. County has a superior goal difference so a draw for the Cobblers won’t be good enough and therefore I am expecting County to go out and thrash the already relegated Hartlepool.
The local press in Hartlepool has been reporting this week that up to 10 players will be leaving the club now that the side has returned to the National League, and this isn’t going to help the attitude and feeling around the club. On the road the visitors have gone W3-D5-L13 conceding an average of 1.86 goals per away fixture. Their record against the top half on the road has seen them win just once and lose seven, conceding two or more on eight occasions whilst failing to keep a clean sheet against any of the sides 14th and above with just two away clean sheets all season.
County have kept 13 home clean sheets this term winning 11 of their last 20 games overall, losing just twice. Over these 20 games, no side has taken more points than Stockport, sitting five points ahead of league winners, Leyton Orient.
Stockport players know what is required and they should win this game comfortably. Hartlepool have to nothing to play for and with many players knowing that they won’t be around next season, I can see the hosts winning this with ease. I wanted to back the hosts to score at least three goals, but that’s only 4/7. We can take the hosts to cover -1.75 Asian handicap meaning that we are splitting our stake between -1.5 and -2. Should the host win by two clear goals we will win with half our stake, but should they run out winners by three or more we will take a full payout.
- Hartlepool -1.75AH at 5/6 with Bet365
Swansea vs WBA
Another game from the Championship that can impact the top six. The Baggies can gatecrash the playoffs with a win over Swansea alongside a Blackburn win over Millwall and Sunderland failing to beat Preston. Both these results are strong possibilities and could well happen, although Albion need to take care of Swansea to stand any chance and they may come unstuck.
Swansea have collected the most points over the last eight games with W6-D2-L0 scoring 16 goals – the most in the division over this period. Their form came just a little late for them to challenge the top six, but they will want to keep the momentum going into the new season, especially after a tough start to this season. Over this run the Swans have been to Norwich and won 3-0 and beaten Preston, Huddersfield, Bristol City, and local rivals Cardiff City.
WBA beat Norwich last weekend to keep their promotion dreams alive, but their away form has been disappointing with W7-D4-L9, losing six of their last nine away trips. Yet, they must win this game with anything else being no good for their promotion aspirations however, they struggle to keep clean sheets on the road with just two in their last 13. We should see some goals here.
Swansea home games average 4.68 cards with the Swans collecting at least one card in each of their 22 home games with an average of 2.32. They have seen both sides carded in 20 of the 22 games. The Baggies have been booked in every away game with an average of 1.77 cards per fixture. They have seen both sides carded in 21 of 22 away game. Given that cards look likely and with the visitors still having something to play for, I am happy to back cards here. The referee is Keith Stroud who averages 5.33 games across his 35 EFL games this season. He has given both sides a card each in 33 games and he has dished out four or more cards in 31 games.
- Both sides over 0.5 cards each, over 2.5 match cards & over 1.5 goals – 10/11 with BetVictor
