EFL expert, The Betting Desk, is here with his weekly betting previews and best bets in England’s Football League.
Barnsley vs Burton
The hosts are in excellent form winning their last four games as they push up the league table and now look a good shout to push the top three for automatic promotion. This season they have gone W10-D3-L6 whilst at Oakwell it’s been just three defeats from nine games, conceding just nine goals. Therefore, it’s no surprise to see that only one side has conceded fewer shots on target than Barnsley when playing at home. Over their last seven league games they have conceded just five goals and they should have too much for a poor Burton side this season.
They are becoming a bit of a force at home as they have now won their last three games at Oakwell in all competitions, finding the net on eight occasions and conceding just once.
Burton have generally been poor all season despite changing manager. Dino Maamira has come in after a relatively poor spell at Oldham where he won just 28% of games and was sacked after 10 months After 14 games, they have a record of W3-D6-L5 and are struggling to find a way out of the bottom three. However, under Dino they average 2.93 match goals per game, finding the net in 12 and conceding in 12. They have conceded two or more in 6 and on the road its one clean sheet in six fixtures conceding two or more in three with a xGA of 1.25. Over those 6 games they have conceded an average of 15.16 shots with 4.0 on target.
Burton haven’t won in six league games. They have conceded 42 goals this season with just two clean sheets, with just one on the road. Barnsley, who are in good form, should win this match.
- Barnsley win at 19/20 with William Hill
West Brom v Rotherham
WBA in recent weeks have started to look like the team that their underlying metrics suggest they could be! The Baggies just outside the bottom three but 4th on xPTS,2nd on xG ratio, shots on target ratio and shots in the box ratio. Despite these excellent underlying stats they have a record of W6-D8-L7 so far this season. They haven’t beaten a side at home that sits above them in the league table with a record of W0-D3-L4 against sides that sit 16th and above, but their record home and away against side that sit below them is good with W3-D3-L0.
The Baggies have now won their last four games on the spin and since Carlos Corberán became manager is four wins and one defeat with three clean sheets. With 6th placed Preston just eight points ahead and the Baggies having one game in hand on the majority of sides above them they will feel that the play offs are in reach.
Rotherham have won just three times since Paul Warne left the game with W3-D3-L6. Overall, this season their away record reads W2-D5-L4 conceding 14 goals. Only three sides have collected fewer away points then the Millers and I have then 23rd on xPTS this season. Statistically they are the worst away side in the division, sitting bottom on xPTS, xG, shots on target and shots in the box ratios.
With just five points from their last eight games, Rotherham should struggle to contain the Baggies who are in fine form. I fancy WBA to win the game in a low scoring affair. Rotherham have only conceded 3 or more goals in three games this season and WBA recently have scored just six goals in their last four games.
- WBA to win & under 5 goals – 8/11 with Bet365
Burnley vs Middlesbrough
Two of the form sides go head to head on Saturday afternoon and I fancy both sides to oblige here and get on the scoresheet. Burnley play great open attacking football under Vincent Kompany and at home have been really strong with W7-D4-L0 finding the net in every home game with an average of 2.09 scored per home fixture. I have the Clarets in the top three for all the major metrics and they long in a good place to return to the Premier League at the first time of asking.
However, they have conceded in seven of their 11 home games and kept just seven clean sheets from their 22 games. They have conceded in five of their last eight games and over the last four games have a xGA of 1.25 whilst conceding an average of 4.16 shots on target per fixture.
Boro have improved under Michael Carrick collecting 13 points from W4-D1-L1 with both teams scoring in five of these games. They are within four points of the play offs and know its important to avoid defeat here.
Over the games under Carrick, they have average 2.0 goals per game with a xG of 1.66, generating 12.06 xPTS.
Both teams appear to be better in attack than in defence and that should lead to both sides finding the net. Both teams to score is around 8/11 but we can add in Burnley to avoid defeat with a double chance play to push this to 11/10. Burnley are yet to lose at home and whilst Boro are improving, I am not sure they are at the same level as Burnley
- Both teams to score and Burnley double chance at 11/10 with Bet365
Waooo