The EFL play-offs enter a decisive stage this week with three huge second-leg fixtures across the Championship, League One and League Two. Promotion dreams are on the line as the tension ramps up and margins tighten.
In the Championship, Sunderland take a slender 2-1 lead into their home clash with Bristol City, looking to book a place at Wembley. League One sees Stockport County host Leyton Orient after a dramatic 2-2 first-leg draw, with both sides believing they have got the firepower to edge it. And in League Two, AFC Wimbledon return to Plough Lane with a 1-0 advantage over Notts County, who must find a way back into the tie without their top scorer.
AFC Wimbledon vs Notts County
AFC Wimbledon and Notts County approach the decisive second leg of their League Two play-off semi-final with contrasting strengths in home and away performance profiles. With Wimbledon holding a 1-0 lead from the first leg and returning to the Cherry Red Records Stadium, the statistical split between their home dominance and Notts County’s away output takes on added significance.
Wimbledon have been one of the strongest home teams in League Two this season with W13-D5-L5. My model ranks them second overall for home performance. They average 1.35 goals per game at home while conceding just 0.7, and their underlying metrics reinforce this strength with 1.54 xG and xGA of just 0.88. Their defensive solidity in front of their own fans is strong – only two teams conceded fewer per game and they have kept 13 clean sheets – and it aligns perfectly with their approach in the first leg: composed, compact, and opportunistic.
Notts County have been one of the stronger away teams this season, earning the second-highest points total on the road. They have averaged 1.55 goals per away game and posted a healthy 1.31 xG, highlighting consistent attacking quality. However, they have struggled defensively, conceding 1.25 goals per game with an xGA of 1.3. That lack of control at the back is underlined by just six away clean sheets – five of which came against teams in the bottom six. Against a defensively solid and efficient home side like Wimbledon, those vulnerabilities could prove costly. County's record against the top eight offers further concern with W2-D3-L9.
Overall, the home and away performance data supports the narrative from the first leg: Wimbledon are tough to break down and efficient at home, while Notts County carry attacking threat but are vulnerable when stretched. The balance of power lies firmly with the home side.
- Best Bet: Wimbledon to win at 2.2 with Boylesports
Stockport County vs Leyton Orient
Stockport County and Leyton Orient meet at Edgeley Park for the second leg of their League One play-off semi-final, with the tie locked at 2-2 after a thrilling first leg in London. While the score line is level, the performance data and form trends give Stockport a distinct edge heading into this pivotal clash.
In the first leg, Leyton Orient struck early but Stockport responded well, turning the game around before a late penalty from Charlie Kelman salvaged a draw for the home side. Both teams showed attacking quality but also left questions at the back, setting up a fascinating second leg.
The most compelling evidence in Stockport’s favour lies in the expected points data. Over their last four matches, they have posted 8.67 xPTS compared to just 4.32 for Leyton Orient. The trend holds over longer stretches—Stockport have recorded 14.13 xPTS across eight games and 21.68 over 12, compared to 11.06 and 15.87 respectively for Orient. This consistent supremacy reflects not just recent momentum, but long-term form.
Stockport’s home form has been excellent all season. They have won 16 of 23 at Edgeley Park and consistently posted strong underlying numbers, averaging 1.59 xG and conceding just 1.03 xGA. They come into this match unbeaten in their last seven, with six wins in that run. In contrast, while Orient boast 12 away wins this campaign, their xG data suggests they have been overperforming, particularly defensively. Over their last four games, they have conceded 1.78 xGA per match and posted a negative xG supremacy across the four, eight, and 12-match samples.
From a betting perspective, Stockport are the standout play. Their form, home strength, and underlying metrics all point toward a win. The first leg produced four goals and both teams scored, which fits with both clubs' recent scoring patterns. .
Stockport have the better numbers, the stronger form, and home advantage.
- Best Bet: Stockport to win at 1.87 with Boyelsports
Sunderland vs Coventry City
Sunderland host Coventry in the second leg of the Championship play-off semi-final holding a 2–1 aggregate lead, and the best betting angle looks to be both teams to score. There is a strong case for this market when combining form trends, tactical context, and underlying data.
Coventry are in a must-score situation. They cannot afford to sit back and will need to push forward from the outset. That attacking mentality has been a consistent feature of their away performances this season. Both teams have scored in nearly 64% of Coventry’s matches, and they have found the net in eight of their last ten away games. With playmakers like Jack Rudoni and Callum O’Hare involved, they carry the creative threat to unlock defences – especially in a game state that demands risk.
Sunderland, meanwhile, are strong at the Stadium of Light. Their home record this season reads W12-D7-L4, with 32 goals scored and just 18 conceded. They have scored in 10 of their last 11 home games and average 1.39 goals per match there. Even with a lead to protect, they remain dangerous in transition—particularly with pace and movement from Wilson Isidor and Eliezer Mayenda, both of whom scored in the first leg.
Defensive vulnerabilities also support the both teams to score. Coventry have conceded 34 goals in 23 away games and kept just three clean sheets. Sunderland have not kept a clean sheet in any of their last seven matches, and both teams have scored in 50% of their fixtures this season.
The head-to-head form aligns as well. The first leg ended 2–1, and earlier in the season, Coventry won the reverse fixture 3–0. While Sunderland’s record against top-six teams is mixed, they have been strong at home. Coventry have battled but often conceded against top sides on the road.
- Best Bet: Both teams to score at 1.75 with Boylesports
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