It was a slightly disappointing set of results last weekend, with a red card derailing our Blackburn vs Norwich goals bet and Wrexham somehow keeping their first clean sheet of the season despite allowing three big chances and an xGOT of 1.21.
Attention now turns to this weekend’s card, which offers several strong angles backed up by the data. Swindon Town look well placed on the 0.0 Asian Handicap line as they travel to Barrow, fresh from one of the standout away performances of the season at Crewe. Huddersfield’s meeting with Peterborough has the makings of a one-sided contest, with the hosts’ attacking metrics stacked up against a Posh side struggling badly in the final third.
Meanwhile, Wycombe’s clash with Mansfield looks primed for entertainment, with Wycombe’s defensive issues and Nigel Clough’s lively attack combining for a strong case on the goals line.
Wycombe Wanderers vs Mansfield Town
Wycombe’s clash with Mansfield looks primed for goals, with both recent results and underlying performance data pointing strongly towards over 2.5 being the standout angle.
Wycombe’s defensive issues are hard to ignore. They are one of just two sides in League One yet to register a clean sheet this season, and their underlying metrics back up those struggles. Across their opening six league matches they have allowed an average of 7.5 shots inside their own penalty area per game, producing a negative shots in box ratio of just 42%.
Their non-penalty xGA sits at 1.34 per match, which ranks them in the bottom five of the division, while they also concede over two big chances on average. At Adams Park, Wycombe have already shipped five goals in three league games and have allowed opponents to register double-figure efforts in each of those fixtures.
Mansfield, on the other hand, come into this fixture with one of the strongest attacking profiles in the league. They rank top six for non-penalty xG at 1.41 per game and are averaging over eight shots inside the box. Their games are producing an average of 2.45 combined expected goals, and 67% of their fixtures have already cleared the 2.5 line.
Nigel Clough’s side have netted 11 goals in their opening six matches, and they have found the net in five of those outings. They also rank in the top five for big chances created, averaging just under two per match, which highlights their ability to carve open opposing defences.
With Wycombe leaking chances and Mansfield creating them, this game should see both sides contribute to the scoreline. Wycombe’s attack is not without threat either, generating over nine shots per game and producing a positive xG return in four of six matches. Combined, the data suggests that three or more goals is the most likely outcome.
- Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals at 19/20 with Bet365
Huddersfield Town vs Peterborough
Huddersfield’s meeting with Peterborough has all the hallmarks of a one-sided contest, and the data strongly supports a goals market approach. The bet on Huddersfield to score over 1.5 goals and Peterborough to score under 1.5 goals is well grounded in both recent form and underlying numbers.
At home, Huddersfield have been among the league’s most consistent attacking sides. They average 2.0 non-penalty xG per game at the John Smith’s Stadium and have already scored three against Leyton Orient, two against Doncaster and one against Stevenage.
They rank in the top five in League One for big chances created, with five in their three home matches, while allowing only one big chance in that same period. Their shots in the box profile is equally strong, averaging 7.0 for and just 5.5 against at home, giving them a healthy 56% ratio.
Peterborough arrive in stark contrast. They have played eight competitive matches this season across league and cup, failing to score in five of them. Their four goals scored underline the bluntness of their attack. Metrics reinforce the eye test: they are bottom of the division for non-penalty xG at just 0.51 per game, and their shots in the box differential of -4.3 is the worst in League One. Away from home they are averaging only 0.43 xG, while conceding 1.70, leaving them with a negative swing of -1.27 per match.
Huddersfield’s defensive record further strengthens the bet. They have already kept four clean sheets, conceding only once at home, and rank top six for xGA at 0.78 per match. Against a Posh side that have not scored more than once in any of their eight fixtures, the data firmly supports Huddersfield clearing 1.5 goals while keeping Peterborough under that mark.
- Best Bet: Huddersfield over 1 goal & Peterborough under 2 goals at 10/11 with Bet365
Barrow vs Swindon Town
Swindon Town on the 0.0 Asian Handicap line makes a strong case as they travel to Barrow. Confidence will be high after their excellent 3-0 win at Crewe Alexandra last weekend, a result that underlined their credentials. Crewe are one of the division’s best home teams, ranking top three in home xPTS, yet Swindon held them to just 0.44 xG, four shots in the box and three on target. At the same time they produced 18 shots, 10 from inside the box and eight on target, showing the dominance of their performance.
Swindon’s away data is among the best in the league. They rank second for away xPTS at 6.04, only behind Crewe, and their away xG profile is excellent at 1.20 for and 0.47 against, giving them a positive differential of +0.73 and a league-high 71.9% xG share. In terms of penalty-box control, they average 8.7 shots in the box per away game compared to just 4.3 conceded, a +4.3 margin and a 66.7% ratio, again the highest figure in the division.
Barrow, by contrast, have struggled to assert themselves at Holker Street. They have only 3.50 home xPTS, ranking in the bottom six, and their home xG numbers are weak: 0.57 for and 0.70 against, leaving them with a negative differential and just 44.9% share. Their shots-in-box numbers at home also underline the problem, with a –1.0 differential and a 45.7% ratio, meaning opponents are consistently generating better quality chances in dangerous areas.
The contrast between Swindon’s away strength and Barrow’s home struggles is striking. With Swindon already proving they can win at top sides like Crewe, the 0.0 Asian Handicap line offers excellent value, with the safety of a push if the game ends level.
- Best Bet: Swindon 0.0AH at 33/40 with Bet365
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