With the EFL season entering its final stretch, every point matters — whether it’s for teams chasing promotion, gunning for the playoffs, or fighting to avoid the drop. The markets are starting to react heavily to motivation, but that often opens the door to value where form and underlying numbers are being overlooked.
This weekend, we have focused on three fixtures that present strong betting angles. Bristol Rovers are in freefall and clinging to their League One status as they host an in-form Reading side. In Birmingham, the Blues continue their relentless form with a home game against struggling Mansfield, while Chesterfield look to keep their late playoff hopes alive against a Morecambe team already relegated to the National League.
Plenty is on the line across the board — and that makes for a great opportunity to find value in the numbers.
Bristol Rovers vs Reading
Matt Taylor was sacked as Bristol Rovers manager back in December after winning just 33% of his 57 games in charge. Inigo Calderon was appointed with the club sitting 19th in the table on 22 points, having scored 19 goals and conceded 35.
Since Calderon's appointment, things have gone from bad to worse: Bristol Rovers now sit 23rd. Under his leadership, they have won just six more matches, with a record of W6-D3-L14. During that period, they have scored 24 goals — only six teams have scored fewer — and just three sides have conceded more.
Although there were some early wins, since early March they have collapsed, recording just one draw and seven defeats in their last eight matches. They have scored only four goals across those games and picked up just one point — a hard-earned 1-1 draw away at Wrexham.
Over their last 14 games, Rovers have picked up only eight points and scored 11 goals. In the last eight matches, they rank 23rd for xPTS and 18th for non-penalty expected goal ratio, averaging a miserable 0.54 non-penalty xG per game. Even worse, their xG from open play over that stretch is just 0.26 — the lowest in the league by a distance. They are averaging just 3.88 shots inside the box per game and have created only two big chances across those eight matches.
Next, they host Reading, who are in excellent form — losing just twice in their last 17 matches and conceding only 12 goals in that run. Reading's away record this season reads W6-D7-L7, and they currently sit level on points with Leyton orient, who occupy the final playoff spot with just two games to go.
On the road, Reading have kept three clean sheets, and against teams ranked 14th and below (home and away), their record reads W14-D4-L1 — with the only defeat coming in a 3-2 loss at Burton back in January.
Bristol Rovers desperately need points to avoid relegation. They are currently in the bottom four, level on points with Burton Albion, but both Burton and Mansfield have a game in hand. A defeat here could be critical, as it would likely leave them in a direct fight with Burton to avoid the final relegation spot.
However, just because Bristol Rovers need a win doesn’t mean they'll get it — and with Reading available at a good price on a -0.25 Asian Handicap, they look the value side here.
- Best Bet: Reading -0.25AH at 1.95 with Bet365
Birmingham City vs Mansfield Town
The bookmakers have priced Birmingham at 1.55 to win, which looks interesting when you consider that — excluding the opening few games of the season — they have only been priced higher at home in three matches: against Wycombe (who were second at the time), Lincoln (1.62), and Stockport (1.65).
Birmingham host a Mansfield side who have won just two of their last 20 League One matches and only 16 points on the road all season, losing nine. Getting the Blues onside here looks the smart move.
Birmingham are chasing history: if they win their remaining matches, they could set the highest points total ever recorded in the EFL — currently 106, set by Reading in 2006. The Blues sit on 102 points with three games still to play, meaning they could potentially reach 111 points, an incredible achievement.
Mansfield, while not mathematically safe, are likely to secure survival through their remaining two home games against Peterborough and Exeter. Even with a defeat on Sunday, they already sit five points clear of Burton and Bristol Rovers.
On the road this season, Mansfield have failed to score in five matches and have kept clean sheets in just four — all against teams currently ranked 17th and below. Against top-nine teams this season, Mansfield’s record reads W2-D3-L12. They did hold Birmingham to a 1-1 draw earlier in the season, but the Blues’ home record is formidable: W18-D4-L0, with 13 clean sheets from 22 matches and only two games without scoring.
Over the last eight games, Birmingham sit first for xPTS and fifth for non-penalty expected goals ratio. Defensively, they have conceded just 0.74 non-penalty xG and only 0.54 xGA from open play, allowing only three big chances across those eight matches. At St Andrew’s, their defensive numbers are even more impressive: they are top for xPTS and conceding just 0.5 xGA per game, while allowing just 1.91 shots on target on average.
The bookmakers seem to have priced Birmingham slightly higher because they “don't need” to win — but that narrative can be exploited. A bet on Birmingham to win and score over 1.5 goals looks attractive here.
The Blues have cleared this line in nine of 10 home games against bottom-half sides this season.
- Best Bet: Birmingham win and over 1.5 goals at 1.83 with Coral
Chesterfield vs Morecambe
Morecambe have been relegated to the National League after winning just 10 of their 44 matches this season. They have conceded 66 goals and lost 28 games, including 16 defeats from 22 away trips (W4-D2-L16). On the road, they have kept just two clean sheets and failed to score in 12 of those 22 matches.
Against top-half opposition away from home, Morecambe's record is W0-D0-L11 —scoring just once. That lone goal was a consolation in a 3-1 loss at Grimsby. Overall, their record against teams currently 12th or higher is W1-D3-L19. It has been a dismal season for the Shrimps, and they are set to drop to the National League.
They travel to Chesterfield this weekend, a side who still have an outside shot at the playoffs. Chesterfield sit three points off seventh-placed Grimsby with two games left, and with Colchester and Salford facing each other on Saturday, at least one of those sides is guaranteed to drop points — keeping Chesterfield in the mix.
Chesterfield’s home record this season is solid: W9-D10-L3. They have failed to score in only two of their 22 home games and beat Morecambe 5-2 away earlier in the campaign. Over the last eight matches, Chesterfield rank 3rd for xPTS and 2nd for non-penalty xG ratio, generating an average of 1.81 non-penalty xG. In that period, they have created nine big chances and conceded just one.
In stark contrast, Morecambe have created only two big chances and conceded five across their last eight matches. Backing Chesterfield outright isn’t offering much value, as expected given the form and motivation of both teams.
However, goals may be limited. Only two of Chesterfield’s 22 home games have gone over 4.5 goals — a 3-3 draw with Bradford and a 5-2 win over league leaders Doncaster. Excluding the Doncaster match, their other eight home wins have all come under the 4.5 goal line.
Meanwhile, just 40% of Morecambe’s away games have gone over 2.5 goals. Only one of their 16 away defeats has been by more than two goals — again, the 3-1 at Grimsby — and none have gone over the 4.5-goal mark. Morecambe have scored just 15 away goals all season and are currently on a run of 10 straight away defeats, averaging just 1.2 total goals per game in that stretch. They have only conceded three or more goals once in those 10 and scored in just three.
So, while the price on Chesterfield to win & under 4.5 goals might seem short, it offers good value given the context. Chesterfield need a win, and Morecambe would likely settle for avoiding another heavy defeat.
- Best Bet: Chesterfield to win and under 4.5 goals at 1.73 with Betway
Further Reading
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