We got a little lucky last week. Swindon and Salford delivered the goals at 1/1, but Leicester and Coventry served up a goalless draw when the data had pointed the other way.
That left us with one loser, and we looked set for another until Ipswich’s game with Blackburn was abandoned, voiding the bet. So, one winner and one loser on the board, but the process remains solid.
This weekend the focus is back on three home sides who all look well placed based on form and underlying numbers. Bradford’s clash with Blackpool is the first, with Valley Parade shaping up as one of the hardest away trips in the division. Grimsby then meet a Cheltenham side who are bottom of the table and now without a manager after Michael Flynn’s exit, while Gillingham host Harrogate with the leaders aiming to extend their flawless start at Priestfield. Each game has a different profile, but the common thread is the value with the home teams, all of whom have the data and momentum on their side.
Bradford City vs Blackpool
Bradford have made Valley Parade a fortress this season, and everything points to them extending that run against Blackpool. Four wins from four home games tells its own story, but the underlying numbers back it up even further. They have scored 10 times in those fixtures, averaging 2.5 goals per game, and their non-penalty xG data is among the strongest in the division. Their attacking play has been consistent too, creating high-quality chances rather than relying on moments of fortune. That has given them a top-of-the-table platform, and it’s hard to see them slowing down here.
Blackpool arrive in sharp contrast. They are still searching for their first away point of the campaign and have lost all four on the road. Even more concerning is their output in those matches: just one goal scored and eight conceded. Their xG away numbers are bottom tier, reflecting a side that is neither creating enough nor preventing chances at the other end. This lack of balance has been evident across their last eight games, where they rank bottom for overall xG ratio.
Matchups like this tend to be decided by fine margins, but Bradford look significantly ahead in every key category. Their forwards are in form, the midfield is supplying steady service, and defensively they have limited opponents to low shot volumes. Blackpool’s away attack, by contrast, averages fewer than four shots inside the box per game, which will struggle to test one of the division’s most in-form home defences.
The odds imply Bradford have a 50% chance of victory, but the data suggests something closer to 65–70%. With Valley Parade already proving a difficult place to visit, and Blackpool offering little sign of improvement on their travels, Bradford look well placed to take all three points.
- Best Bet: Bradford win at 1/1 with William Hill
Grimsby Town vs Cheltenham
Grimsby look well placed to beat Cheltenham this weekend, and the game should feature at least two goals given how both sides have been trending.
Cheltenham come into this fixture at their lowest point, bottom of the table with just one win from nine league matches and now managerless after Michael Flynn was sacked following a 3-0 home defeat to Oldham. Their issues run far deeper than results. They rank bottom for xG across the division, averaging just 0.54 per game over the last eight, while defensively they are conceding 1.90 xGA in the same period. The Robins have allowed the most shots on target and touches in the box away from home, which makes them highly vulnerable against a Grimsby side who consistently create chances.
Grimsby themselves have been strong in the underlying data even if their points tally looks modest. They rank first across the division in xPTS, with an xG supremacy of +0.69 per game over the last eight. At home, their numbers are even better. They average 1.65 xG for and just 0.50 xGA, among the best home splits in the league, and they have been reliable at generating shots inside the box and clear big chances.
Goals also look likely. Eight of Grimsby’s last nine league matches have seen at least two scored, and Cheltenham’s defence is rarely capable of shutting out opposition attacks. They have just one clean sheet this term and have conceded 17 goals across their nine games. Whilst their underlying metrics shows that only one side has conceded more big chances than them on the road.
With Grimsby’s attack ranking top for non-penalty xG and Cheltenham giving up more than six shots on target per game away from home, the matchup looks heavily tilted in favour of the hosts.
The most logical angle is backing Grimsby to win, with the safety of over 1.5 goals included.
- Best Bet: Grimsby win & Grimsby to score over 1.5 goals at 4/5 with Ladbrokes
Gillingham vs Harrogate
Gillingham are in a strong position to take three points against Harrogate, with both form and data pointing clearly towards the home side.
Gareth Ainsworth’s team sit top of League Two after an unbeaten start of six wins and three draws from their opening nine matches. They have been especially dominant at home, winning all four games at Priestfield while conceding just one goal. Their defensive structure has been excellent, ranking in the top three for xGA across the league and first for clean sheets. This foundation has allowed them to manage games efficiently, often striking first and then shutting teams down.
Harrogate, by contrast, have struggled for consistency. Away from home they have lost two of four and scored only three times. Their away xG over the last eight sits at just 0.70 per game, while they are conceding more than 1.70 xGA. They also rank among the worst in the division for touches conceded in their own box and big chances allowed. That is not the type of profile that tends to survive against a well-drilled side like Gillingham.
Another key difference is efficiency in tight games. Gillingham have won five of their six victories by a single goal, showing control and composure under pressure. Harrogate, however, have dropped points in matches where they have had opportunities, underlining their lack of clinical edge. With Gillingham’s back line in commanding form and their ability to generate xG from set plays, they are well set to exploit Harrogate’s defensive weaknesses.
Given Gillingham’s flawless home record and Harrogate’s limitations on the road, the most logical play is a home win. Even at odds of 5/6, the implied probability looks generous compared to the underlying numbers.
- Best Bet: Gillingham win at 4/5 with 888
Further Reading
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- Chelsea vs Brighton & Hove Albion Prediction and Betting Tips
- Everton vs West Ham Utd Prediction and Betting Tips
- Manchester City vs Burnley Prediction and Betting Tips
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