Our first two EFL columns of the season have started strongly, returning four winners and one refund from six bets. With confidence high, we turn our attention to another weekend slate that offers three standout opportunities across the EFL.
At the New York Stadium, Rotherham look a club in crisis, with their underlying numbers among the worst in the division, while Wigan arrive in far better shape under Ryan Lowe. In North Wales, Wrexham welcome Sheffield Wednesday to the Racecourse Ground, where Phil Parkinson’s side carry a formidable home record and a sharper attacking profile. Meanwhile, Swindon host Shrewsbury in a fixture that looks heavily tilted in favour of the home side, with the data showing a big gap in attacking threat and chance creation between the two.
Three different matches, three different betting angles, but all backed up by the same process of weighing results against underlying performance.
Rotherham vs Wigan
Wigan Draw No Bet looks the safer angle when they visit Rotherham.
The Millers are in disarray both on and off the pitch. Their xPTS return of just 1.01 is the lowest in the division, while their non-penalty xG of 0.30 per game is paired with a huge 1.73 against, giving them a damaging -1.43 differential. In terms of shots in the box, they average only two per match while conceding more than eight, a gulf that underlines their inability to compete in key areas. A squad that has lost Mallik Wilks, Hakeem Odoffin and Jonson Clarke-Harris also lacks the quality and depth of previous campaigns, and the backdrop of supporter unrest towards owner Tony Stewart hardly helps the atmosphere.
Wigan, meanwhile, are at least showing balance. Their xPTS tally of 6.41 ranks them inside the top half, while their non-penalty xG differential of +0.25 suggests they are creating marginally more than they concede. They are also positive in the penalty box count, generating six shots to 5.5 conceded per game, unlike Rotherham who sit bottom by distance. Ryan Lowe has tightened things up, and with Sam Tickle in goal, Will Aimson and Jason Kerr in defence meaning there is enough of a spine to make them hard to beat.
Given Rotherham’s blunt attack and Wigan’s more stable metrics, siding with the Latics on Draw No Bet removes the risk of a stalemate while backing the likelier winners. Even away from home, the underlying data points firmly in their favour.
- Best Bet: Wigan DNB at 7/10 with William Hill
Wrexham vs Sheffield Wednesday
Wrexham’s meeting with Sheffield Wednesday looks a strong opportunity to back the home side to win with over 1.5 goals in the game. The underlying numbers suggest Phil Parkinson’s team are better placed to turn pressure into points, and with Wednesday arriving in disarray, this market stands out.
Expected points has Wrexham at 2.44 compared to just 1.76 for Wednesday. In attack, Wrexham’s non-penalty xG sits at 1.87 per game, higher than their visitors at 1.55. They have also created four big chances in their first two games, double the tally of Wednesday, who have managed only one. Defensively, Wrexham’s issues are more about volume than quality, conceding 11.5 shots in the box per match, yet the big-chance data suggests these efforts are often low value. Wednesday, by contrast, have allowed four big chances already and look more fragile when openings do come.
The Racecourse Ground is an added factor. Last season in League One, Wrexham won 16 of 23 at home, averaging 1.78 goals per match and keeping 13 clean sheets. They scored in 21 of those 23 games, and 13 went over 2.5 goals. That record shows how often Wrexham’s matches at home clear the 1.5 line comfortably.
Wednesday’s off-field situation makes matters worse. Henrik Pedersen has admitted they need an emergency loan goalkeeper after Pierce Charles suffered a shoulder injury, leaving them without a senior option. Against a team as clinical at home as Wrexham, that is a major handicap.
Wrexham’s attacking strength, coupled with Wednesday’s vulnerability, makes Wrexham to win and over 1.5 goals an appealing play.
- Best Bet: Wrexham win & over 1.5 goals at 4/5 with Bet365
Swindon Town vs Shrewsbury Town
Swindon look a very strong bet to claim three points when they host Shrewsbury this weekend, with both results and underlying numbers pointing firmly in their favour.
The league table already shows a clear divide between the two. Swindon have won two of their opening four games and sit 12th, while Shrewsbury are 23rd with only one point and a single goal scored. That alone highlights the gap in quality, but the advanced data tells the story even more strongly.
Swindon rank fourth in the division for xPTS, showing their performances have merited far more than mid-table. They average just over 7 xPTS, keeping pace with Chesterfield and Grimsby. Shrewsbury, by contrast, are second from bottom on only 2.59 xPTS. That confirms their struggles are not down to bad luck but consistent poor displays.
In terms of chance creation, Swindon are far superior. They average eight shots in the box per game, while Shrewsbury manage only five, one of the lowest returns in the league. When it comes to big chances, Swindon have produced three already, while Shrewsbury are the only side yet to fashion a single one. That lack of threat is reflected in their non-penalty xG of just 0.47 per game, less than half of Swindon’s 0.91.
Defensively, Swindon can be vulnerable, conceding over 10 shots in the box per game, but crucially they have not given up a single big chance so far. Shrewsbury, who rarely create anything meaningful, are unlikely to change that. With a sharper attack and far better underlying data, Swindon should win this match comfortably.
- Best Bet: Swindon win at 17/20 with Coral
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