This weekend’s EFL action offers an exciting trio of fixtures that promise plenty of drama, goals, and betting opportunities.
From a tightly contested battle at The Valley to Wrexham's dominant home record being tested, and Swansea hosting a high-stakes clash with playoff contenders West Brom, there’s something for every fan and bettor to analyse.
At The Valley, Charlton Athletic face off against Reading in a match that pits the Addicks’ strong home performances against Reading’s inconsistency on the road. With goals likely on both ends, this one is shaping up to be a thrilling encounter.
In League One, Wrexham will look to extend their unbeaten home record as they welcome Peterborough United. The hosts have been clinical at The Racecourse Ground, while Peterborough’s defensive frailties on the road could leave them vulnerable yet again.
Finally, in the Championship, Swansea take on West Bromwich Albion in a match that could be decisive for playoff aspirations. Swansea’s knack for high-scoring games meets West Brom’s resolute but shaky away defence, creating the perfect recipe for another entertaining contest.
In this article, we’ll break down each matchup, provide key stats, and offer betting tips to help you make the most of this exciting weekend of football.
Charlton Athletic vs Reading
Charlton host Reading on Saturday in what promises to be an intriguing clash. Reading currently sit fifth in the table, a remarkable achievement given their off-field issues. Their lofty position can largely be attributed to their impressive home record, where they have earned 27 points from 11 matches—the second-best points per-game ratio in the division.
However, their away form has been far less consistent, with a record of W4-D4-L5. Away from home, they have scored 16 goals but conceded 24, an average of two goals per game. Interestingly, they have failed to score in just two away games this season (against Wrexham and Lincoln) but have conceded in all 12.
Recent form paints a more modest picture for Reading—they rank 18th for xPTS over the last four matches and 17th over the last eight. They face a Charlton side currently sitting 11th in the table, six points behind sixth-placed Barnsley and seven points behind Reading. At home, Charlton have a respectable record of W5-D4-L2.
They have scored 14 goals at The Valley, conceding an average of just 0.91 per game. However, after keeping clean sheets in their first two home games, they have only managed two more in their subsequent nine fixtures—a goalless draw with Mansfield and a narrow 1-0 win over Birmingham.
Charlton's underlying metrics are strong—they sit fourth for xPTS over the last four matches and third over the last eight. Defensively, they are generally solid at home, conceding an average of just 0.75 xG and 2.27 shots on target per game, but they have struggled to translate this into clean sheets.
Reading, on the other hand, have scored in 19 of their 23 matches this season but have only kept four clean sheets. They have also failed to keep a clean sheet in their last six games, although their attack has been prolific recently, scoring 10 goals in their last three outings. Reading’s away games tend to be high-scoring, averaging 3.33 goals per match.
Charlton come into this game on the back of two consecutive home wins (2-1 over Wycombe and Cambridge), while Reading have found the net consistently despite their defensive vulnerabilities. Given both teams' profiles, this match is likely to see goals, with both sides expected to find the back of the net.
- Best Bet: Both teams to score at 1.80 with Coral
Wrexham vs Peterborough Utd
Wrexham boast an outstanding home record this season, with W11-D2-L0, conceding just 0.62 goals per game on average. They have kept seven clean sheets in their 13 home matches, and since their opening fixture, where they conceded twice in a 3-2 win over Wycombe, they have allowed just five goals in their last 12 home games.
They rank seventh for home xPTS but they sit a distant 18th for away xPTS, highlighting that their promotion push will rely heavily on their stellar home performances. Currently third in the table and only two points off the top, Wrexham are firmly in the hunt despite Birmingham and Wycombe both holding a game in hand.
No team in League One has a better home record than Wrexham, with 35 points from 13 games. Reading and Birmingham follow, having collected 27 points each from 11 matches. Defensively, only Birmingham and Wycombe have conceded fewer goals at home, while no side has scored more home goals than Wrexham this season.
This weekend, Wrexham face a struggling Peterborough side, ranked 14th for away xPTS and with the fourth-highest away xGA in the division. Defensively, Peterborough have issues on the road, with only six teams conceding more shots on target and just four teams allowing more shots in the box in away fixtures.
Their away record reads W2-D2-L6, conceding an average of two goals per match. They have conceded at least two goals in seven of their 10 away games and, despite winning their first two away fixtures against Shrewsbury and Exeter, have failed to win any of their last eight. Across their 23 games this season, they have yet to keep a clean sheet. Peterborough rank 19th for xPTS over the last four matches and 16th over the last eight games. During this recent period, they have conceded an average of 1.10 xGA per match, while only four teams have allowed more shots in the box.
Given Wrexham’s prolific home form—they have scored two or more goals in nine of their 13 home games—and Peterborough’s defensive struggles, with two or more goals conceded in seven of 10 away games, I’m confident in backing the hosts to score at least twice. However, the odds for Wrexham to score over 1.5 goals are relatively low at 1.66.
To enhance value, I propose a combined bet: Wrexham to score over 1.5 goals, Wrexham double chance (win or draw), and Wrexham to win at least two corners.
Strong stats backs this combination: Wrexham have won three or more corners in nine of their 13 home games, averaging 4.23 corners per match. Meanwhile, Peterborough concede an average of 6.2 corners on the road, allowing three or more in 9 of their 10 away fixtures and at least four in six of those. This boosts the odds to 1.86 with Bet365.
- Best Bet: Wrexham over 1 goal, Wrexham over 2 corners and Wrexham double chance at 1.86 with Bet365
Swansea vs West Bromwich Albion
Swansea host West Brom on Saturday in an intriguing clash. Swansea currently sit 12th in the table with a record of W9-D6-L10, having scored and conceded 29 goals. West Brom, meanwhile, are 6th, just inside the playoffs, level on points with Blackburn but ahead on goal difference.
The Baggies have been tough to beat, losing just four games all season and conceding only 20 goals. However, they have struggled defensively on the road recently, conceding in their last four away matches, all of which saw both teams find the net. They have managed just three clean sheets in 13 away games (against Portsmouth, Blackburn, and Sunderland) but have scored in all but two of those fixtures—0-0 draws at Blackburn and Sunderland.
Swansea, in contrast, are involved in high-scoring games. Eight of their last 10 matches have seen both teams score, with an average of 3.7 goals per game during that period. They have found the net in nine of those 10 games but kept just one clean sheet. At home, Swansea are averaging 1.36 xG per match and rank fifth for home xPTS and non-penalty xG ratio.
They have scored in 10 of their 12 home fixtures and kept five clean sheets. However, four of those clean sheets were against teams currently sitting 11th or lower in the table. Against the top seven, their record is poor—played seven, lost seven—including a 4-3 defeat to Leeds and a 3-2 loss to Sunderland at home.
West Brom rank fifth for away xPTS and fourth for non-penalty xG ratio on the road. Given Swansea’s recent trend of high-scoring games and their struggles defensively against stronger opponents, this match sets up well for both teams to find the net. At a price of 1.85, backing both teams to score offers solid value.
- Best Bet: Both teams to score at 1.85 with William Hill
