With the promotion race heating up and teams battling for crucial points, this weekend’s fixtures provide plenty of betting opportunities across the Championship and League One. In this article, we analyse three key games—Norwich City vs Oxford United, Birmingham City vs Lincoln City, and Peterborough United vs Wycombe Wanderers—identifying the best value bets based on team form, statistical trends, and key player performances.
Norwich City are still in the mix for a playoff push, but their inconsistent results have left them chasing the top six. Their home form has been strong, but defensive lapses could make their clash with Oxford United, who have been fighting to secure mid-table stability, an intriguing encounter.
Birmingham City look destined for automatic promotion, boasting the best home record in League One. They host a Lincoln City side struggling for away form and looking to find some stability after a mixed run of results. With Birmingham’s defensive dominance and Lincoln’s struggles against top teams, this could be another solid outing for the league leaders.
Finally, Peterborough United vs Wycombe Wanderers promises to be a high-scoring affair, with both sides featuring among the division’s most prolific attacking teams. Wycombe are in the hunt for automatic promotion, while Peterborough are looking to pull away from the relegation battle. Defensive issues have plagued both sides, and this could lead to a goal-heavy contest.
Below, we break down each game, highlighting the best betting angles and key statistics to inform your selections.
Norwich City vs Oxford Utd
Norwich City are in danger of missing out on the playoffs, currently sitting on 48 points from 35 matches, four points behind sixth-placed West Brom. However, with multiple teams between them and the playoff positions, they have little margin for error. Their home record stands at W8 -D6-L3, with only Leeds United scoring more home goals than Norwich this season. Despite this, they have significantly underperformed compared to Leeds and Sheffield United, collecting 15 points fewer than Leeds at home and eight fewer than Sheffield United.
Defensively, Norwich have struggled at Carrow Road, keeping just one clean sheet all season, though they have only failed to score twice in their 17 home matches. A high percentage of their games—65%—have seen over 2.5 goals, which suggests plenty of attacking action. Their record against teams in the top 10 at home is poor (W1-D2-L4), with their only win coming 2-1 against Coventry in January. However, against teams 10th and below, their home record is strong (W7-D2-L1), and they have scored two or more goals in seven of those 10 matches. If Norwich are to have any chance of breaking into the top six, their home form will be crucial, especially given their poor away record (W4-D5-L9), with two of those victories coming against relegation-threatened Derby and Luton.
Statistically, Norwich rank third for xPTS at home and third for xG ratio, while also boasting the second-highest xG at home and fourth-most shots on target in home fixtures. Their main attacking threat, Josh Sargent, has been in excellent form, scoring seven goals in his last seven starts. Over those games, he has registered 20 shots and 11 shots on target, highlighting his sharp finishing ability.
Oxford United, meanwhile, look just about safe this season, sitting on 38 points—seven ahead of Luton. However, their away form has been extremely poor, with a record of W1-D6-L10, scoring just 10 goals while conceding an average of 1.59 goals per away match. Since Gary Rowett took over from Des Buckingham, Oxford have improved defensively, registering W1-D4-L3, conceding just nine goals in those matches. Despite an impressive eight-game run in which they won five, they have now failed to win any of their last seven matches, conceding two or more goals in defeats to Portsmouth, West Brom, and Coventry—all top-half teams. Their struggles away from home are reflected in their 23rd ranking for away xPTS and xG ratio, while over the last eight matches, they sit 19th for xPTS and 22nd for non-penalty xG ratio.
Norwich have been strong at home, and with Sargent in form, they have a serious goal threat. Their record against bottom-half Championship teams suggests they should dominate, especially considering Oxford have lost every away match against teams in the top 10, conceding at least two goals in seven of those nine games. Norwich to score two or more goals at 1.73 looks a solid bet, but adding a Norwich double chance (Win or Draw) boosts this to 1.99 with William Hill, making it an even stronger play.
- Best Bet: Norwich to score over 1.5 goals and Norwich City double chance at 2.03 with 888 Sport
Birmingham City vs Lincoln City
Birmingham City appear to have promotion all but secured as we enter early March. Sitting 11 points ahead of third-placed Wrexham with a game in hand, their dominant W20-D3-L3 record has been built on an incredibly solid defence, having conceded just 22 goals all season. At St. Andrew’s, they remain unbeaten, winning 14 of their 17 home matches while conceding just seven goals. Early in the season, they shipped five goals in their first four home matches, but since then, they have conceded just two goals in their last 13 home games. During this period, they have kept clean sheets in 11 of their last 12 League One fixtures.
Birmingham’s defensive numbers are outstanding. Over the last 12 matches, they rank second for xPTS and ninth for non-penalty xG ratio, but crucially, they have allowed just 0.69 non-penalty xGA per game. At home, they rank second for xPTS and first for xG ratio, conceding an average of just 0.55 xGA per game. No team has registered more shots on target at home, while Birmingham have the best defensive record for shots in the box, allowing just 2.73 per home fixture.
They welcome a mid-table Lincoln City side that has won just five of their 18 away matches. Lincoln started the season well on the road, winning three of their first four, but have since won just two of their last 11 away fixtures, scoring a total of 15 goals away from home. While they sit comfortably in mid-table—13 points above the relegation zone and 12 points off the playoff places—their away form against top-half teams has been poor, with a W1-D2-L4 record, their only win coming against 12th-placed Stevenage.
Lincoln’s away games have averaged 2.61 goals per match, while Birmingham’s home matches have averaged just 2.18 goals per game. Lincoln’s expected numbers on the road suggest low goal returns, averaging just 1.05 xG for and 0.95 xGA per match. Birmingham have only seen three of their home matches exceed 3.5 goals, and two of those were back in September. Across their last 13 home fixtures, games have averaged just 1.77 goals, with the only match to see over 3.5 goals being a 4-0 victory over bottom-placed Cambridge.
Birmingham should comfortably secure the win, but their odds are too short to back outright. Instead, combining a Birmingham win with under 3.5 goals boosts the odds to just over even money, which provides excellent value given their defensive dominance and Lincoln’s struggles against top-half sides on the road.
- Best Bet: Birmingham to win and under 3.5 goals at 2.05 with Coral
Peterborough Utd vs Wycombe Wanderers
Peterborough remain in a precarious position, still looking over their shoulder as they fight to avoid relegation. They currently sit just five points above 21st-placed Burton with a W10-D8-L16 record. Despite their struggles, Peterborough have been one of the league’s most entertaining sides, with only Wycombe, Birmingham and Bolton scoring more goals than them this season. However, their defensive frailties are a major issue, as only Crawley have conceded more goals, with 59 goals conceded in 33 matches.
At home, Peterborough’s W7-D4-L6 record has been heavily defined by high-scoring matches, with 59% of their games seeing over 2.5 goals. They have kept just two clean sheets at home this season—a 0-0 draw with Leyton Orient and a 1-0 win over Wigan. Matches at the Weston Homes Stadium average 3.41 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 11 of 17 home fixtures. Their record against teams currently sitting seventh and above is poor, with just one win from nine matches (W1-D0-L8), keeping only one clean sheet in that stretch. Across the season, Peterborough rank 15th for home xPTS and 16th for xG ratio, while over the last eight matches, they sit 15th for xPTS but 21st for non-penalty xG ratio, further highlighting their defensive issues.
Wycombe, on the other hand, have been inconsistent but difficult to beat over the last 20 matches, losing just three times—against Charlton, Huddersfield, and Birmingham. Their most recent defeat, a 1-0 loss to Birmingham, came despite playing with 10 men for the entire second half, yet they still won the xG battle 1.19 to 0.93 and generated more chances even when reduced in numbers.
Wycombe’s away games have averaged 3.41 goals per match, with both teams scoring in 13 of their 17 away fixtures. They have only failed to score once on the road this season (in the loss at Birmingham) and have managed just three clean sheets away from home, meaning 76% of their away matches have seen at least three goals.
Sitting just two points ahead of third-placed Wrexham, Wycombe see this as a crucial game in their push for automatic promotion. No side has won more away points than Wycombe this season, and no team has scored more away goals than the Wanderers.
Both teams to score is heavily favoured at 1.65, which suggests a 60% probability, yet both teams to score has landed in 70% of both Peterborough’s home games and Wycombe’s away games. Given that both teams are averaging 3.41 goals per match in their respective home and away fixtures, backing Over 2.5 goals at 1.80 with Betfred offers strong value, as the implied probability is just 55%, yet this bet has already landed in 67% of their matches this season, meaning the odds should be closer 1.50.
- Best Bet: Over 2.5 match goals at 1.80 with Coral
