Blackburn vs Sheffield Utd
Sheffield United appear well-positioned to secure a win against Blackburn this weekend. Currently ranked fourth on xPTS and ninth on away xPTS, the Blades have performed consistently on the road, conceding only 0.88 xGA and 3.17 shots on target per game—figures only five teams in the division can beat.
Their defensive solidity has seen them concede just four goals in away matches, with two of those coming against a strong Leeds United side. Although Sheffield United’s recent games have been low scoring, with an average away match xG of 1.56, they remain formidable defensively, conceding fewer goals than any team aside from Burnley.
Blackburn, while undefeated at home, have benefited from a favourable schedule, with most home wins coming against lower-ranked teams.
When facing sides in the top eight, Blackburn’s record dips significantly, with W0-D3-L1, including just one clean sheet and failing to score in half of these games. Their recent form shows further struggles, with a W1-D1-L3 record, and they have lost the xG battle in three of their last four home games.
Blackburn’s last four matches have also seen them average only 0.57 xG while conceding 1.17 xGA, suggesting weaknesses on both ends.
While Blackburn holds the final play-off spot, they have the highest goal concession rate among play-off contenders and are ranked 15th in xPTS and 16th in non-penalty xG ratio.
Given Sheffield United’s strong defensive record and Blackburn’s inconsistencies against top teams, the Blades look well-equipped to capitalize on Blackburn’s vulnerabilities. However, we can back them on the scratch Asian Handicap, which means if they draw the game, we get a refund but will get paid out in full if they claim the three points.
- Best Bet: Sheffield Utd 0.0AH at 1.86 with Bet365
Hull City vs Portsmouth
Hull City and Portsmouth’s clash promises goals, with both teams likely to score and see over 2.5 match goals. Hull’s home form has been inconsistent, recording just one win in six games (W1-D3-L2) and conceding in five out of six matches.
The Tigers’ defence has been porous, allowing the most shots in the box among all teams and ranking twenty-fourth for both xPTS and non-penalty xG ratio over the last four games, where they’ve averaged 1.53 xGA. With only QPR and Portsmouth having a worse home record, Hull’s vulnerability at the back is apparent.
Portsmouth’s away games have been goal-heavy, with an average of 4.17 goals per match and over 2.5 goals landing in five of six. They have found the net in five of six road games, with both teams scoring in the same five games.
Defensively, Portsmouth has struggled, having kept only two clean sheets, both at home, and conceding an average of 1.765 xGA away. Currently bottom of the table, Pompey have conceded the most goals in the league.
Between them, Hull and Portsmouth have seen BTTS in 15 out of their 24 games this season, with only three total clean sheets. Given their defensive weaknesses, recent injury struggles, and the tendency for high-scoring games, both teams are likely to find the back of the net. However, the odds on this is too low, so we can add either side scoring at least two to boost the odds to just over even money.
- Best Bet: Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals at 2.05 with Boylesports
QPR vs Sunderland
I want to back goals again in this game, given both teams recent form and statistical trends. Sunderland, under new head coach Regis Le Bris, have impressed this season with 28 points from 12 games (W9-D1-L2). Both losses have come on the road, and they have kept just two clean sheets in six away games, with both teams scoring landing in four of these matches.
One of the clean sheets was when they visited Cardiff, but they conceded 1.22 xGA and allowed 11 shots, three of which were on target. Sunderland have consistently scored away from home, as only two teams have registered more shots in the box on the road.
QPR, sitting in 23rd place, are struggling with just one win all season. Their home record is particularly poor (W0-D3-L3), yet they’ve managed to score in all six home games, with both teams finding the net each time. Ranked twenty-third for home xPTS, QPR have conceded 11 goals at Loftus Road this term. However, they have been consistently able to find the back of the net, scoring in nine out of 12 games.
Given that both teams scoring has landed in 10 of the 12 combined home and away matches for these two teams, and with both finding the net regularly, goals from both sides seem very likely.
- Best Bet: Both teams to score at 1.93 with Vbet.
Mallorca would appear to be a good value bet today, having taken 10 points from their last 5 up against Alaves who have taken zero from the same number of games.
I have absolutely no confidence in my own judgement right now though so proceed with caution.
5/2 or thereabouts
Wrong page, my mistake.