As we head into another exciting weekend of football, we have three intriguing matchups that offer plenty of value from a betting perspective.
Derby take on high-flying Sheffield United, looking to turn around their poor form and avoid slipping further into relegation danger. Reading host Bolton, with both teams capable of finding the net but struggling to keep clean sheets. Meanwhile, Harrogate face a tough challenge against Crewe, a side with one of the best defensive records in the league.
In this article, we break down the key stats, underlying data, recent form, and trends for each game to identify the best betting opportunities.
Whether you're looking for goals, value bets, or potential upsets, we have got you covered with data-driven insights. Let’s dive in!
EFL betting tips
Derby vs Sheffield Utd
Sheffield United travel to Derby County on Saturday, aiming for a strong performance after their 3-0 home defeat to Hull City. Meanwhile, Derby find themselves in serious danger of relegation to League One. They currently sit 22nd in the table with a record of W7-D6-L16, having conceded 40 goals this season.
At home, Derby’s form has been mixed (W6-D2-L6), but they have struggled offensively, scoring just 19 goals—only seven teams have netted fewer on home turf. Their recent form is alarming, with six consecutive losses and just three wins in their last 20 games. However, in the last 15 fixtures, only Plymouth have accumulated fewer points than Derby. The Rams have managed just nine points from their last 15 games, an alarming trend that the Rams have struggled to break.
Over the last four matches, Derby rank 21st for xPTS and 22nd over the last eight. Their defensive frailties are evident, as no team has a higher xGA than Derby over the last four games (1.68). Additionally, over the last four fixtures, only West Brom have conceded more big chances than the Rams, and across the last eight, no side has conceded more.
Sheffield United, on the other hand, have been active in the transfer market, strengthening their squad for both a promotion push this season and potential Premier League survival next year. The Blades have lost just five matches all season, conceding only 21 goals—an impressive average of 0.72 per game. Their away record stands at W8-D4-L3, with defeats coming against Sunderland, Middlesbrough, and Leeds—all teams currently in the top six.
Apart from last week’s loss to Hull, Sheffield United have dominated sides sitting seventh or lower, boasting an unbeaten record of W16-D4-L0. They have only failed to score in three away matches—against Leeds, Middlesbrough, and in a goalless draw with Portsmouth. Despite their recent setback, they rank third for xPTS over the last eight matches. Although their non-penalty xG is relatively low, they have found the net in 24 of their 29 games.
Their recent signings—Tom Cannon from Leicester and Ben Brereton Diaz from Southampton—should bolster their attacking threat. The Blades have already been prolific on the road, scoring two or more goals in seven of their last nine away matches. The only exceptions were a 2-1 loss at Sunderland and a narrow 1-0 win over Millwall.
Derby, meanwhile, have been leaky at home, conceding in nine of their last 11 matches, with an average of 1.27 goals per game. Frustration is growing among the fans, and pressure is mounting on manager Paul Warne, whose track record in the Championship remains poor.
Sheffield United should have the quality to bounce back against a Derby side that looks increasingly likely to drop to League One.
- Best Bet: Sheff Utd to score 1.5+ goals at 2.5 with William Hill
Reading vs Bolton
Reading’s matches this season have averaged 3.07 goals per game. At home, they boast a strong W9-D0-L3 record but have kept just four clean sheets whilst only failing to score in two of their 12 home games. Over 2.5 goals have landed in eight of those matches (66.67%), with an average of two goals per game, and both teams scoring in 50% of fixtures.
Things were going well for Reading until Ruben Selles left for Hull City. Since his departure, their form has dipped, recording W3-D2-L5 in their last 10 matches, which have still averaged 3.0 goals per game. Defensively, they have been vulnerable, conceding an average of 1.7 goals per match and keeping just one clean sheet at home under new manager Noel Hunt. In his four home games, Reading have gone W2-D0-L2, conceding in all four and averaging two goals conceded per 90 minutes.
Over the last four games, they sit 18th for xPTS, dropping to 21st over the last eight. During this period, they have averaged 1.57 non-penalty xGA, conceding 10 big chances—only two teams have allowed more. Despite their defensive struggles, they have failed to score at home only against Leyton Orient and Blackpool but have netted two or more goals in eight of 12 home matches.
They now face a Bolton side in transition after Ian Evatt’s sacking, with Julian Darby as interim boss. Despite the managerial change, Bolton have won both games, including an impressive 1-0 win at Huddersfield.
Bolton’s games have averaged 3.04 goals per match, with a W13-D5-L10 record. They have conceded 42 goals, ranking among the seven worst defensive teams. However, they have been solid away, ranking sixth in away points (W6-D2-L5), though they have kept just three clean sheets in 13 away matches.
Over the last eight games, Bolton have averaged 1.23 non-penalty xG, but defensively, only six teams have conceded more shots in the box.
With both teams struggling defensively, both teams to score looks likely. However, over 2.5 goals appears to be the best bet, with 60% of their combined matches hitting that mark—offering true odds of 1.67 but with odds much higher offering some value.
- Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score at 2.05 with William Hill
Harrogate vs Crewe
Harrogate have struggled this season, losing 16 of 29 matches while averaging just 0.83 goals per game. In contrast, Crewe have been far more consistent, suffering only five defeats all season, with two coming in their opening two fixtures. Since then, they have lost just three times in 26 games.
At home, Harrogate have a W5-D1-L8 record, scoring only 11 goals in 14 matches. They have failed to score in 50% of their home games and kept just four clean sheets. Across the season, they rank 23rd for xPTS and sit bottom for non-penalty G ratio, generating just 0.57 xG per game at home. They also rank 23rd for shots on target ratio and shots in the box ratio, consistently among the league’s worst in key metrics.
Harrogate sit bottom for xPTS over the last 12 matches and remain bottom over the last eight. My model has them 23rd for home performances, while over the last eight matches, they have conceded 1.66 non-penalty xGA per game. Only Newport has allowed more touches and shots in the box, and no side has conceded more big chances. Offensively, only Morecambe and Carlisle have scored fewer home goals.
Crewe, meanwhile, boast the fourth-best away record (W5-D6-L3), conceding just 11 goals—the best defensive record in the division. Over the last eight matches, they rank seventh for xPTS and fifth for non-penalty xG ratio, allowing just 0.64 non-penalty xGA per game, the second-best defensive record in that period.
Crewe have conceded just 14 goals (0.79 per match) on the road, keeping five clean sheets while scoring in 12 of their last 13 away matches. Their three away defeats came against Cheltenham, Newport, and Barrow, though they were unlucky against Newport, winning the xG battle 1.53 to 0.73.
Under four goals has landed in all 14 of Crewe’s away matches and 13 of 14 Harrogate home games. Crewe win or draw (double chance) & under four goals at 1.95 odds looks a solid bet.
- Best Bet: Crewe double chance and under 4 goals at 1.95 with Bet365
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