This weekend's EFL fixtures present intriguing matchups as Peterborough United host Reading, aiming to capitalise on their strong home form against a Reading side struggling on the road.
Shrewsbury Town face Birmingham City, with both teams seeking crucial points to improve their league standings.
Meanwhile, Carlisle United take on Doncaster Rovers, where contrasting recent performances could influence the outcome.
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Peterborough vs Reading
Peterborough United are set to host Reading in an upcoming League One fixture on Saturday, with both teams displaying contrasting form that could influence the outcome.
After an inconsistent start at home, Peterborough have found their stride, achieving four wins and one draw in their last five home matches. Notably, they have scored two or more goals in each of these games, totalling 19 goals.
The team boasts the fourth-highest xG in the league, averaging 1.07 xG per 90 minutes. Additionally, only three teams have a higher average of shots on target per match.
Whilst the visitors have struggled on the road with a record of one win, two draws, and four losses. They have conceded 17 goals in these matches, averaging 2.43 goals against per away game, and have yet to keep a clean sheet. In four of their seven away fixtures, they have allowed two or more goals.
Over the last four games, Reading ranks eighteenth in non-penalty xG ratio and 1seventheth for xPTS. Their away performance is particularly concerning, standing 23rd for xPTS and 22nd for non-penalty xG ratio. Defensively, only three teams have conceded more shots on target, and just two have allowed more shots in the box during away games.
Given Peterborough's potent home attack and Reading's defensive struggles on the road, it's reasonable to anticipate that Peterborough will secure a win and score at least two goals in the upcoming match. However, we can take a slightly more cautious approach to the game and back the hosts to score at least twice and not to lose the game at a nice price.
- Best Bet: Peterborough to win and Peterborough double chance at 1.75 with BetVictor
Shrewsbury Town vs Birmingham City
Shrewsbury's home performance has been underwhelming, with a record of W1-D1-L5, scoring just five goals and failing to score in their last three home games. They have conceded in six out of seven home matches and in 14 of 15 games this season, not scoring in their last four games.
Their only away win was against Crawley, who sit twenty-first. Only two teams have fewer home points, and no side has conceded more goals at home. They rank eightieth for xPTS over the last four games, 23rd overall and for non-penalty xG ratio, and 24th for home shots on target ratio.
Birmingham City, while holding the fourth-best home record, boasts the highest points per game on the road in the division. Their away record stands at W4-D1-L1, with the sole defeat being a 1-0 loss to Charlton in a match that featured just nine shots, only one on target.
They drew 1-1 with Mansfield, winning the xG battle 1.92 to 1.01 and the shot count 19 to 10, with 11 shots in the box compared to Mansfield's five. They have scored two or more goals in eight of 13 matches. Over the last four games, they have averaged 1.48 xG and are second for xPTS. Only Lincoln has conceded fewer shots in the box over the last four games.
They rank second for xPTS over the last eight fixtures and for non-penalty xG ratio. In the same period, no side has conceded less xGA, with just 0.55.
Shrewsbury Town's defensive vulnerabilities, particularly in conceding corners, are evident. They allow an average of 5.43 corners per home game, conceding three or more in six out of seven matches, and at least two in all seven.
Over 15 matches, they have conceded three or more corners in 14. In contrast, Birmingham City excel in winning corners during away fixtures, averaging 6.53 per game. They have secured five or more corners in every away match this season, achieving this in 12 games and at least three in all 13.
Given these statistics, Birmingham City's strong away form and ability to win corners suggest they are well-positioned to exploit Shrewsbury Town's defensive weaknesses.
Backing the Blues to win the game and score at least twice is too low. However, if we add in the visitors to win three or more corners, we can push this to a backable price.
- Best Bet: Birmingham to win, Birmingham to score over 1 goal and Birmingham to win over 3 corners at 1.86 with Bet365
Carlisle Utd vs Doncaster Rovers
Doncaster Rovers are well-positioned to secure a victory over Carlisle United in their upcoming League Two fixture, given the contrasting forms of both teams. Carlisle have struggled this season with a record of W3-D3-L10, Carlisle has scored 14 goals while conceding 29.
At Brunton Park, they have returned W1-D1-L5, scoring just seven goals and conceding 12. Notably, after winning their opening home game, they have failed to secure a victory in the subsequent six matches, conceding two or more goals in four out of seven home fixtures.
Their record against top-half opponents stands at W1-D-L7 with six goals scored and 21 conceded. Over the last four games, Carlisle rank twentieth for xPTS and seventeenth over the last eight games, generating only 0.59 xG in the most recent four matches. Mike Williamson was appointed as manager in late September and so far, has overseen W1-D3-L3 scoring just four times.
In contrast Doncaster have recorded W8-D4-L4, with 22 goals scored and 18 conceded.
On the road, they have achieved W4-D1-L2, winning their last three away games. Their away points per game is among the best in the division. In the last four games, Doncaster ranks seventh for xPTS and second over the last eight games, conceding just 0.65 xGA in that period. Overall, they are fourth in xPTS and third for non-penalty xG ratio.
Given Carlisle's defensive vulnerabilities and Doncaster's strong away form and recent performances, Doncaster Rovers should secure a win in this encounter.
- Best Bet: Doncaster -0.25AH at 1.75 with Bet365
