EFL expert, The Betting Desk, returns with his weekly betting previews and best bets in England’s Football League.
Accrington vs Bristol Rovers
I am keen to get behind goals here. The hosts have been struggling recently with just one win in their last 12 as they slip towards League Two. Over these 12 games they have seen an average of 2.67 goals, conceding 2+ in 7. At home it’s not been great with a record of W2-D5-L4 finding the net in seven games with Ipswich, Sheff Wed and Bolton all keeping clean sheets. Outside the top five sides they have found in the net in six of seven games when playing at home and 13 of 17 games in total, so I am hoping they find the net again here.
Defensively their home metrics are poor sitting in the bottom four for the majority, but they do have a midtable attack, and I think they can contribute to goals on Saturday. The Gas have seen an average of 3.23 match goals in the road, finding the net in 11 of their 13 away games with Barnsley and Ipswich stopping them scoring. They have conceded in 11 with clean sheets against two of the bottom three. Rovers have the 2nd highest scorers in away games in League One with an average of 1.62 and their attacking metrics don’t really reflect this, but there are similarities between the number of goals conceded and their defensive performance. I have them in the bottom five for all major defensive metrics on the road.
Rovers have Aaron Collins and Josh Coburn and they should be good for some goals. Collins is the league’s leading scorer with 13 goals and 10 assists whist Coburn has 9 goals and with Rovers have scored 2+ in just over 50% of their away games, they should keep up that trend here with a high scoring game.
We can back over 2.5 match goals 87/100 with Betfair
Burnley vs Coventry
I am a little surprised by the odds on Burnley to win this match. The hosts have a home record of W9-D4-L0 scoring an average of 2.23 goals per home fixture. I have them 3rd on home xPTS and then in the top five for all the usual attacking metrics. I have them winning 11 of their 13 home games on xG and they average a home xG of 1.46 allowing a xGA of 0.78 with just 0.86 goals conceded.
Kompany has them playing some excellent football, no side has scored more home goals, only one side has taken more shots on target and just three sides have had more shots in the box. The Clarets should be full of confidence after beating PL side Bournemouth 4-2 last weekend in the FA Cup, whilst the Sky Blues were beaten by National League leaders Wrexham.
Coventry have won just once in their last seven games and have an away record of W3-D4-L5 with their three wins coming over Cardiff, Stoke and Watford. Against visiting sides that sit 16th and above they have a record of W1-D3-L5, keeping just two clean sheets and conceding 2+ in 5.
Only five sides have collected fewer away points than Coventry and given the form of both sides I am happy to back the hosts to collect all three points here. However, the odds have dropped to a below acceptable level on the straight win, so I am going to back Burnley to win and under 4.5 goals.
The hosts have 10 of 13 home games gone under 4.5 goals and Coventry have seen an average of 2.33 match goals on the road with only two sides conceding fewer goals in the Championship this term. 7 of 12 Coventry away games have seen two or fewer goals with five clean sheets which means I don’t see Burnley running away with this game.
Charlton vs Barnsley
Another goals angle in our last bet with Charlton and Barnsley meeting at the Valley. The hosts have seen an average of 3.15 goals across their home League One fixtures this season. The Addicks have found the net in 11 of 13 games failing to score against Cheltenham and MK Dons and have conceded in 11 of 13, one of which was their home opener against Derby. As you can see goals are generally on the agenda at the Valley with 6 of 13 going over 2.5 match goals and 9 of 13 with both teams finding the net.
Only four sides have scored more goals at home than Charlton and just seven sides have conceded more than the hosts. In my rankings I have then 5th for shots on target taken and 17th for the same metric against.
They have resigned Macauley Bonne after his release from QPR and last season he had an impressive scoring rate with Ipswich at this level whilst visitors Barnsley have also improved their forward line with the arrival of Max Watters from Cardiff.
Barnsley have scored in all but two of their away games this term and with Charlton’s poor defensive performance this season, the visitors should be able to score again here.
I think both sides will get in the score sheet here and the game will see at least three goals
We can back this at 1/1 with Unibet
