Burnley vs Cardiff
We already knew that the Clarets had a strong squad and would go well this season, but the way they dispatched fellow promotion contenders have seen their odds to come to 5.5 to lift to the title, with Leeds pushed out to 4.0.
I think it's an overreaction, as Luton had several players missing, but it does demonstrate how the market reacted to an impressive display. Now, they return to Turf Moor to take on a Cardiff City side that will struggle to improve on last season's 12th place.
Cardiff overachieved last season. My data had them 20th on expected points (xPTS) and 22nd on expected goal (xG) ratio. The Bluebirds only won the xG battle in 16 games last season with 12 of these sides finishing the bottom half, which suggests that they struggled against the better sides, this is confirmed with their away results.
Their record against the top half on the road was W3-D1-L7. They failed to win any of their games against the top eight sides, and that’s where I would expect Burnley to finish. Against the top eight last term, they lost by an aggregate of 20 vs 6.
The home win is too short at 1.5, so I am happy to take Burnley -1AH at 1.75 with 888 Sport. This bet would have won in five of Cardiff’s visits to last season’s top eight and would have produced a full refund in a further two, with just one loss.
Best Bet: Burnley -1AH at 1.75 with 888 Sport
Colchester vs MK Dons
There has been a significant overreaction to the Dons' defeat at Bradford where they lost 3-2. The game started badly as Sam Sherring sliced a cross into his own net after eight minutes on his debut. However, they won the xG battle 1.57 vs 1.07 and they had more shots and shots on target as they suffered a surprise but underserved defeat.
The EFL Cup result midweek was another defeat, this time 5-0 at the hands of Championship Watford. Again, I want to make a defence for the Dons. Manager Mike Williamson made eight changes, and their goalkeeper had a game he will never forget, gifting Watford most of the Hornets goals.
MK were second favourites to win the league, and in my view, they should have been favourites, as I couldn’t get behind Chesterfield to carry off the title. They went off at odds of 2.19 to beat Bradford at home and now 2.3 to beat a Colchester side that finished three points above the league trap door last season.
I do expect the Us under manager Danny Cowley to improve, but I am not sure they are ready to move from relegation battlers to promotion challengers.
Last weekend they raced into a 2-0 lead inside nine minutes but still lost the game 4-2. Wimbledon having six shots on target generating a xG of 2.91 as they won comfortably.
Under Cowley things did improve especially at home, where they only lost three of his 10 games, but the fixtures were kind and they still were beaten by Wrexham, Stockport and Doncaster, who were all promoted.
It’s still early days, so I am going to propose taking MK Dons -0.25AH even money with Bet365. This means that if the game ends in a draw we lose 50% of our stake with the other 50% refunded. A win for the visitors will see us profit.
Best Bet: MK Dons -0.25AH at 2.0 with Bet365
Bolton vs Wrexham
I am expecting goals in this game and in most Wrexham games this term. They started the season with a 3-2 win over Wycombe and then a 4-1 defeat to Sheffield Utd in the EFL Cup.
The Welsh side has had some strong results in their pre-season fixtures. They faced Premier League Chelsea and Bournemouth and didn’t taste defeat. Goals were on the agenda across all their friendly games, with an average of 3.6 per fixture, and their opening two games across League One and EFL Cup have averaged five goals.
Their victory over Wycombe had 32 shots in the match, 10 shots on target and 25 shots in the box and the defeat to the Blades had 32 shots, eight shots on target and 24 shots in the box. Whilst it’s a small sample these are incredible numbers.
Last term, Wrexham had the fourth best away record in League Two with W9-D7-L7, keeping just six clean sheets, but they only failed to score in six, so a trend of goals at both ends.
Bolton were strong at home last season with a home record of W15-D5-L3 scoring an average of 2.26 goals per home fixture backed up by expected goals (xG) of 1.46, the best in League One.
The Trotters at home liked to attack teams with the second-highest number of shots and shots on target per game, and therefore, it’s no surprise to see that they scored in 75% of home fixtures. Despite an impressive home record and underlying data, Bolton only kept clean sheets against three of the top half at the Toughsheet Community Stadium.
Given how open Wrexham have started the season and Bolton's strong record of scoring at home, we should see both sides scoring and then with the attacking players from both sides, I am confident that we will see at least three goals.
Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals at 1.85 with Bet365
