Jack Draper continued his tremendous form with yet another win yesterday at the Paris Masters, and now he’s facing Alex de Minaur again. The Brit will have a chance to win an eighth match in a row, but De Minaur won’t give up easily.
He’s fighting for a spot at the ATP Finals, so motivation will be huge. Read on for our Draper vs De Minaur prediction and betting tips.
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Player form: Draper on a seven-match winning streak
Draper came to Paris off the back of a maiden ATP 500 title in Vienna last week, and with two wins so far this week, rides a seven-match win streak.
His win over Fritz yesterday was particularly impressive because the American is a really good player. He did drop a set, though, so he might not be playing as cleanly as he did last week.
Even so, there are some things that make him a huge favourite in this one no matter what the odds tell you. It’s mostly because De Minaur hasn’t been as sharp as he can be. He hasn’t been fully healthy for a while, but he’s found ways to win matches (beating Mariano Navone and Miomir Kecmanovic so far this week) which is still impressive.
How the bookies view it: Draper ahead
Draper is the favourite here and for very good reason. He’s the better indoor player right now because De Minaur might not be fully healthy. The Aussie is a tricky matchup for most players, but the last time they played at the US Open was an easy time for Draper.
He’s still in good form while de Minaur took a step back with the conditions favoring Draper too. That’s why he’s favoured, with Betfred putting this one at 3/5 for Draper and 6/5 for a De Minaur upset.
Recent head-to-head: De Minaur leads 3-1
Much like Fritz yesterday, De Minaur leads the head-to-head 3-1 so far. It’s mostly because Draper hasn’t been as good as he’s been lately. This Draper is a much better player and he showed it in New York where he won easily 6-3, 7-5, 6-2.
Anything else catch the eye?
The big reason why Draper has been so good lately is his serve. He has been hitting his serve at a really high rate and converting points behind it super efficiently. He had a 96% win rate against Jiri Lehecka just a few days ago.
Generally, though, his serve has cooled off a bit compared to Vienna. Yet, he’s still serving at a hugely impressive rate. He was superb against Fritz, but the American was playing a really good match which is what made it seem less impressive.
De Minaur is not going to play as well as Fritz simply because lately he hasn’t been at his best since a hip injury at Wimbledon. He’s been winning matches, but most of those wins are not that impressive. Here in Paris, he beat a clay specialist and Kecmanovic who has been off for a while.
The thing that will likely decide the matchup is the serve. It was a huge weapon for Draper in their last meeting and won him lots of free and easy points.
The Aussie will have to work for most of his points and eventually we simply think that Draper will have a better time with that. De Minaur is fighting for Turin so there is added motivation for him, but we don’t think it will be enough.
Draper vs De Minaur betting tips & predictions
Our prediction is that Draper will win this match. The odds are not great, but we think he’s just been too good lately. The conditions should also favour him quite a bit so take him to win it.
- Draper to win the match @ 3/5
This match will be played on Thursday, October 31, 2024 in Vienna.
Bren is our resident Kiwi, and has been playing or watching sports down under in New Zealand for the better part of three decades. With 12+ years experience as a professional writer, Bren loves to dive deep into all things sport to bring the best betting analysis and predictions here at Mr Fixits Tips.
