A FEW weeks ago Mighty Mike was around the 10/11 – 1/1 mark to recapture the Matchplay.
However with some recent lapse performance has drifted out to as big as 7/4 with Betfred, writes Dave South.
Two first round exits at the recent World Series events in Las Vegas and Germany where his form against both Michael Smith and Martin Schindler was patchy to say the least will give the field a real sense of Mighty Mike not at all cylinders when it comes to toe the Oche from 19:00 Saturday.
One argument is that the World Series is a glorified exhibition tour with no ranking points on the line but unpicking the MVG price stage by stage:
MVG to reach the Semi Final – 1/2 Betfair
MVG to reach the Final – 1/1 Coral/Ladbrokes
MVG to win the Matchplay – 7/4 Betfred
This implies a combined 66.67% chance of reaching the last four. Layers anticipate MVG to be no bigger than 1/3 in the semi final and around the 4/11 mark if he lifts the title in the final.
There will be backers out there taking the 7/4 on the basis MVG’s shock first round exit to Jeffrey De Zwaan in the 2018 event will want to be avenged and veteran Steve Beaton will do all he can to try and upset the odds again.
The Wright Stuff?
Peter Wright knows he has ranking points to defend after appearing in the final 2 years ago when he lost to Phil Taylor on his farewell. Sporting new darts could Peter Wright be coming into the right form just in time for the event.
Backed up with three titles since the German Masters inclusive of a double header victory in both pro tour events on Tuesday and Wednesday backers have seen snakebite trimmed into 12/1 to take the title. Being in the bottom half of the draw if Wright can emulate his 100+ averages seen in the last week he will be difficult to beat and first up is Vincent Van see Voort!
With Wright in a more winnable quarter is 13/8 get to the semi final with Unibet with the closest seed Daryl Gurney at 100/30.
Wright would not face Gurney if it went by seeding until the quarter final and feel after his 8-0 thrashing to James Wade, the 13/8 has mileage with Unibet.
Gerwyn Price is credible at 7/2 to win the third quarter with Rob Cross at 7/4. I wouldn’t be confident in taking Cross where the draw is no means easy for either.
After seeing some money for the 180’s via my previous article on the total 180s in the event, Sportingbet have adjusted to 309.50 now.
@WreckitRalf111 got in touch asking my opinion on Hills chalking up the first round total maximums set at 132.5 which averages 8.25 maximums per match. This will come close I feel but remembering that at the event a year ago 108 maximums were chalked up it will still need 3-4 matches to see a low maximum count to help this.
Finding this bet within the #yourodds section should see this at 5/6.
Opening Night Bets
Looking briefly at the opening night short price favourite backers can back Aspinall, Price, Gary Anderson and Rob Cross all to win at between 12/5 and 5/2 with Betfair.
Dobey and King could be the biggest threats here although Aspinall was superb at the recent Las Vegas World Series tour and Merv is certainly still a reputable force and will go close.
Rob Cross wont take Chris Dobey lightly knowing his capabilities. Gerwyn Price will need a good start against Stephen Bunting, although if the Bullet’s scoring is better than anticipated could well be a much needed victory.
Hopefully Gary Anderson will be in title defence mode and Danny Noppert will not make the Scot’s journey that straightforward.
Good luck with the Matchplay!
Recommendations
- Peter Wright to win Q4 – 13/8 Unibet 1pt
Round 1
- Whitlock to beat Henderson – 10/11 Hills 1pt (Monday)
- King/Aspinall – over 16.5 legs – 21/20 Sportingbet 1pt (Saturday)
- Over 15.5 leg double – Webster/Clayton games – 11/8 Sportingbet 1pt (Sun/Mon)
- Hughes – over 4.5 180’s vs Smith – 19/17 Marathonbet 1pt (Sunday)
- Most 180 draw no bet double Wright and Chisnall – 57/50 Ladbrokes and Coral 1pt (Sun/Mon)
