The US Open is the largest draw we’ll get until the end of the year, which means that it’s also the most tennis matches we’ll have in a very long time. It’s a perfect opportunity to find those dark horses and place those value bets. Some of those value bets might be outright winners like Aryna Sabalenka due to how she’s played recently.
Nobody has played better than she has recently, so that’s valuable, but it’s not the only US Open betting tip you should consider. There are a few others, and we’re going to talk about some of those.
US Open betting tips – outright winner predictions
We’ve broken down the latest odds from bookmaker Betfred, and these are our US Open betting tips for the men’s and women’s singles events.
Jannik Sinner to win men’s singles @ 3/1
Jannik Sinner might not have made a deep run at the US Open in the past, as he’s never reached the semi-final, but the Italian just recently won the Cincinnati Open, which will play similarly to New York.
He’s also looked pretty decent at the event in the past and is generally capable of beating any player in the draw. His serve improving as much as it did since last year is certainly one of the main reasons he can win the event.
Other factors contribute to his chances. Novak Djokovic just had a hugely emotional experience in Paris, and many wonder whether he’ll be able to refocus in time for this event. He’s also not showing himself to be immune against Sinner on hard courts.
Carlos Alcaraz hasn’t looked that impressive either, especially after the Olympics letdown. His performance in Cincinnati was a shocker. Some of the other players who could technically challenge don’t really stand out too much, and most of them have been beaten by Sinner a few times already this year.
The biggest downside to this bet is Sinner's doping saga a few days ago. He might be heavily distracted by that, and the crowd might turn on him a little bit. If he can handle that pressure well, he should be good, but there is a chance that it will heavily impact him.
Overall, he’s just a solid pick to win the event, as many tennis analysts are predicting. The court and the way it plays benefit him most out of all the contenders.
Iga Swiatek to win women’s singles @ 7/2
According to the odds, Iga Swiatek might not be the biggest favourite, but the Polish player can certainly win this event. She won the US Open two years ago, and anytime you do that, there is always a chance that you’ll do it again.
Her most recent experience in Cincinnati didn’t go too well, with a straight set loss to Aryna Sabalenka. That’s hardly a bad loss because Sabalenka was on fire last week. What makes Swiatek a solid pick is that it literally takes a huge effort from somebody really good to stop her from winning.
The odds of that happening aren’t that high, though there are a couple of candidates who could get it done, mainly Sabalenka. Even so, she bested her a couple of times this year, so it’s not a matchup she can’t win.
Another boost for Swiatek is the balls switching back to the ones used in 2022. They helped her win the event that year, and she’s excited about getting those back. They don’t work as well for Sabalenka, though, who prefers the heavier version used last year.
Overall, Swiatek is a brilliant player who has and can win the event. She’s going to be motivated after losing out on the gold medal at the Olympics, and there is historic proof that a motivated Swiatek is still the best of all the WTA players.
Dark horse betting tips at 2024 US Open
Fancy a bet that has slightly juicer returns? Then take a look at some of these dark horses at the US Open – they aren’t sure things, but they sure do pay nicely if they come off.
Daniil Medvedev men’s singles dark horse @ 16/1
Daniil Medvedev hasn’t performed spectacularly well this year, but that’s exactly why he’s a solid pick as a dark horse to win the event. Medvedev is a former champion of this event, having beaten Novak Djokovic in 2021 to win the trophy.
It was a strong run by the Russian, who demonstrated just how well he is as a hard court player. While his results this year haven’t been spectacular, he’s still one of the best hard courters in the world.
Medvedev was in the Australian Open final earlier this year, so he can certainly still play well on the surface. He’s going to be quite motivated as well, and some things contribute to this reasoning.
He can beat Novak Djokovic on a hard court, even though he failed to do that in last year’s US Open final. He can also beat Carlos Alcaraz on it, as he showed last year. He can also beat Jannik Sinner, as he beat him at Wimbledon recently.
He has a really good track record in New York, and he’s beaten all three of his closest competitors, so he’ll be motivated. That’s all you really need to back him as a solid dark horse to go all the way.
After all, he’s not a favourite, but certainly good enough to win from the shadows if some things line up well for him.
Jessica Pegula women’s singles dark horse @ 11/1
One player that is rarely mentioned among those who could technically win the US Open is Jesica Pegula. It’s a bit odd because she’s a native player who has historically played really well in New York. She’s also from the state of New York, which makes this a really important event for her.
The conditions do favour her style of play, and she happens to be in really good shape ahead of this event. She won the Canadian Open and made the Cincinnati Open final, so she’s 9-1 heading into the US Open.
That’s a superb run, and it likely won’t end in New York. She should make at least the quarter-finals and who knows what might happen after that. The more she wins, the more confident she’ll get, and one thing leading to another could undoubtedly do the trick.
Outside of the main favourites like Sabalenka and Swiatek, it’s Pegula who is the likeliest to win this event, and that’s what makes her a good pick. In form and very familiar with conditions and the courts. What else could you hope for?
Best US Open betting tips for 2024
- Jannik Sinner to win men’s singles @ 3/1
- Iga Swiatek to win women’s singles @ 7/2
- Daniil Medvedev men’s singles dark horse @ 16/1
- Jessica Pegula women’s singles dark horse @ 11/1
Above are some of the best betting tips for the 2024 US Open. The value is there because sometimes the favourites don’t win. Most of the time, they do win, but if they don’t, a dark horse candidate is certainly the best route to go.
Who are your favourites and best dark horses to bet on? Let us know in the comments below.
Bren is our resident Kiwi, and has been playing or watching sports down under in New Zealand for the better part of three decades. With 12+ years experience as a professional writer, Bren loves to dive deep into all things sport to bring the best betting analysis and predictions here at Mr Fixits Tips.
