Ballon d’Or winner odds: Rodri all but confirmed as the winner

‘Vini Jr' had been installed as the overwhelming favourite to win the 2024 Ballon d'Or, after emerging from Karim Benzema's shadow to become Real Madrid's main man.

However, there was a last-minute twist in store, as news broke on Monday afternoon that Real Madrid took no delegation to the French capital, all but confirming reports that Rodri was in fact the 2024 Ballon d'Or winner.

Ballon d'Or winner odds latest news

At present odds comparison sites are yet to reflect the latest developments, but it seems as though backing Vinicius Jr would now be a waste of money, even with him still being the favourite in places:

Rodri gazumps Vinicius Junior

Everything pointed to Vinicius Jr picking up the award, as he inspired the Spanish giants to a La Liga and Champions League double last season, racking up 24 goals and 10 assists in the process. On top of this, he consistently showed that he is Real's man for the big occasion, netting twice away to Bayern Munich in the Champions League semi-final before scoring the crucial second goal during Real Madrid's 2-0 win over Borussia Dortmund in the Wembley final.

And a recent hat-trick against the same luckless opponents only strengthened the case for the Brazilian to pocket the prestigious accolade in Paris.

As for Rodri, the unfortunate timing of his season-ending injury looked to have extinguished his chances of scooping the award. Not so it would seem! After inspiring Spain to Euro 2024 glory, Rodri has cemented his status as the finest midfielder on the planet. The 28-year-old was the driving force at the heart of La Roja’s engine room in Germany and his performances earned him the Player of the Tournament award.

Jude Bellingham to complete the podium

The Englishman always looked like a shoe-in for the bronze medal here, with leaks on Monday afternoon seemingly vindicating this belief once and for all.

Bellingham enjoyed a stunning first season in the Spanish capital with Real Madrid. The 20-year-old made a seamless transition to one of the biggest clubs in the world and was pivotal in their all-conquering La Liga and Champions League triumphs.

Bellingham banged in 23 goals in all competitions and ended his maiden campaign in Spain with 13 assists to his name. 

While the Stourbridge-born star was heavily criticised for his performances at Euro 2024, his stunning last-gasp overhead-kick equaliser against Slovakia will go down as one of the most iconic goals in the tournament's history.

Dani Carvajal falls short

Again, due to the absence of any Real Madrid representative, Carvajal will not be the first Spaniard in six decades to lift the Ballon d'Or. Nonetheless, the Spanish right-back enjoyed one of his best seasons last term in what is fast becoming an ever-growing glittering career. 

Last season, Carvajal won La Liga, the Champions League and Euro 2024 all within the space of two months. He also confirmed himself as a Real Madrid legend by scoring the opening goal in June's Champions League final against Borussia Dortmund. Unfortunately for Carvajal, he suffered a serious knee injury during Real Madrid's 2-0 win against Villarreal earlier this month, and that can perhaps be attributed to his odds for Ballon d'Or glory drifting out to 40/1.

Maybe next year for Lamine Yamal

After starring in Spain’s run to a historic fourth European Championship title, 17-year-old wonderkid Lamine Yamal has burst into the Ballon d'Or conversation. The Barcelona boy wonder bagged the tournament's Best Young Player award and his stunning strike against France was named the Goal of the Tournament.

He has also been one of Barcelona's standout performers across the opening months of the season in both La Liga and the Champions League. And while he won't be picking up the award this year, he could have a decent chance in 2025, especially if Barcelona go on to win the title after Saturday's sensational 4-0 victory over Real Madrid at the Bernabeu.

Ballon d'Or winner trends

It's hard to gauge with much accuracy how much we can glean from the last 10 editions of the Ballon d'Or, given that Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi dominated the 2010s:

There are distinct trends all the same though. The first and most prominent, perhaps, is the fact that 10 of the past 12 Ballon d'Or winners have represented a La Liga club. And before 2023, each of the preceding 35 editions saw its recipient come from one of the top five European domestic leagues.

For the record, 1986 remains the last time a European team not in that category saw a Ballon d'Or winner, with Dynamo Kyiv's Igor Belanov taking the honours.

Real Madrid are also the only team to have three different Ballon d'Or recipients in the past decade. This, along with those other trends noted above, only further bolsters the belief that Vinicius will make good on his price to become the first award-winning Brazilian since Kaka in 2007.

Kaka's win came after AC Milan's Champions League win earlier that year. Interestingly, nine of the dozen editions spanning 2007 to 2018 inclusive saw the winning player receiving their award in the same year as a Champions League triumph.

More recently, there has been a move away from that, as evidenced by Messi's wins of 2019, 2021 and 2023. However, we can say with confidence that Haaland might have pipped Messi to the 2023 award after his Premier League and UCL double, had the Argentine failed to bring the World Cup home.

In any case, you would have to go back to 2013 to find the last time a Real Madrid player won the Ballon d'Or without winning the corresponding year's Champions League final.

See also: The 12 criteria that make the ‘perfect' Champions League team.

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