The ATP Finals are the last big singles event of the season and this year's event is finally upon us. As in years prior, they will be held in Turin so there is plenty of data for us to analyse in our ATP Finals betting tips.
There are a couple of great players in the mix, precisely because it’s supposed to be an event that only features the best players in the world for the previous 12 months. There won’t be any Novak Djokovic though, making this year’s tournament feel like a real changing of the guard.
With eight days of action starting this Sunday, read on for our full ATP Finals predictions, including a look at the best dark horse bets, group winners, and of course, our pick of who will win the whole thing.
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ATP Finals betting tips – group winner predictions
This event, as always, is structured into two groups of four players each. This year’s groups are named after former players with the first group being named the Ilie Nastase group and the second one called the John Newcombe group.
One is considerably more notable, at least when it comes to the names, than the other, so that’s an interesting dynamic to consider for our predictions. Let’s take a look at who might win these two groups.
Group Nastase winner – Jannik Sinner @ 1/2
As the first group features Jannik Sinner, there is no way you can argue for anybody but him to win the group. There is simply no valid reason for it and we’re going to explain why.
First of all, Sinner is currently No. 1 and nobody is even close, whether it be in the Race to Turin or the general rankings. That tells us that he’s been the best player this year by far and it’s true. Even in recent weeks, Sinner has dominated.
He made the China Open final where only a crazy comeback by Carlos Alcaraz stopped him from winning the trophy. He then goes to Shanghai and smashes everybody en route to the trophy, including Djokovic in the final.
After that, he went to Riyadh where he breezed past a couple of more players to win the trophy there, including Alcaraz whom he beat in the final. That’s what he did recently and he will arrive in Turin without any fatigue after skipping over Paris.
Turin is in Sinner’s home country of Italy, so he will have the fans backing him heavily. He made the final last year so he clearly likes to play there. He’s also 42-3 on hard courts this year, losing only to Alcaraz and Andrey Rublev on the surface in 2024, neither of which are in his group.
Easy play, Sinner wins his group.
Group Newcombe winner – Alexander Zverev @ 2/1
This other group is a bit more tricky considering that there isn’t a player who has dominated the year as well as Sinner has. Sure, this group has Alcaraz, and while he has peaked at a very high level this season, the Spaniard never quite dominated as much as Sinner did.
That’s why we’re going to pick Alexander Zverev as the winner of this group. Zverev has played really well in Turin in the past. He won the event in 2021 and has looked really good whenever he’s played here.
The event generally plays more on the quicker side which suits his style of play because his serve becomes almost undefendable. He’s also playing really well right now, having won the Paris Masters.
Zverev has generally taken a more aggressive approach to tennis this year which has unlocked his game quite a bit. It makes him that much more dangerous, especially on courts like this one where his serve does as much damage as it did in the past.
Another reason why we’re backing Zverev over Alcaraz is simply because Zverev actually beat Alcaraz on these courts last year. It was a competitive match, but Zverev prevailed, so with everything in mind we think it’s a pretty solid bet to have Zverev win the group.
The other players in the group are Casper Ruud and Rublev, and neither of which are considered a threat to Zverev, or Alcaraz.
Outright winner prediction for ATP Finals
Based on our reasoning above, you likely know where we’re going with this. Here’s our ATP Finals betting tip for an outright winner:
Outright winner – Jannik Sinner @ 6/5
This again will be hardly a surprise for most people because Sinner has been so good lately. We explained above what makes Sinner very likely to win his group and that’s half of the job already done.
We think he’s going to win all three of the matches in his group because neither Daniil Medvedev, Alex de Minaur, nor Taylor Fritz should present too much trouble for Sinner. That leaves the other group as something that could give him trouble but is that really so?
So let’s assume that Zverev and Alcaraz get out of that group. It’s very likely that Sinner plays Alcaraz in the semi-final because we do think that Zverev will win the group. So that’s Alcaraz for Sinner, and he’s beaten him this year.
Indoors, it’s more than likely that he’ll beat him again. Why? The match up is so close that the conditions will be the deciding factor. Turin is just a type of court that fits more with Sinner’s game. If he beats Alcaraz, similar to how he beat him in Riyadh indoors not too long ago, he will likely face Zverev in the final.
That might be a tough matchup on paper for the Italian, but he should be able to handle that without too many problems. He’s got a good return and that’s what you need to force Zverev to play rallies. As stable as Zverev is in rallies, he’s not as great of a hitter as Sinner is.
That should give Sinner a minor advantage in those rallies, and if he brings a level that can be considered close to his best, then he’s very likely to win the match which would mean that he won the event. He was in the final last year but Djokovic stopped him. There is no Djokovic this time around.
ATP Finals dark horse betting tips
A dark horse candidate is a player who could technically win the event even though most would agree that they won’t. They are far from a sure thing, but if the bet hits, it’ll be juicy.
Dark horse prediction – Zverev @ 13/2
Now, whether Zverev can actually be considered a dark horse candidate to win is highly debatable because technically he’s one of the favourites. However, when you really put it into perspective, almost nobody expects him to win.
The vast majority of experts would pick Sinner as the top favourite, which makes sense. He is. A slightly lesser group would likely pick Alcaraz as the favourite, but almost none of them would pick Zverev.
That alone makes him a dark horse by default because nobody really believes he can do it. We do, and it mostly comes down to what he’s been able to do at the event in the past and his recent formy. The matchups are what tennis is all about and he has good matchups against most of these players, contrary to popular belief.
The serve is another major thing which can power him past players even when he’s not playing as well as he can (and he is playing very well right now). We explained above why we think he’s going to win the group and the same applies for the event. The only player that should give him major problems is Sinner.
He won’t face him until the final likely, and in a final lots of things can happen. Zverev has beaten Sinner in the past and if he gets a crazy serving day then there is a chance that Sinner simply fails to break him.
His own aggressive and streaky play could put him in some trouble in a matchup where only a few points decide so anything is possible. In some ways, Zverev will arrive in Turin in even better form than Sinner so this is our pick. We don’t see any other players really putting their name into the mix.
Best ATP Finals betting tips for 2024
- Group A winner – Sinner @ 1/2
- Group B winner – Zverev @ 2/1
- Outright winner – Sinner @ 6/5
- Dark horse prediction – Zverev @ 13/2
The 2024 ATP Finals in Turin are upon us, and this was our preview of it. We gave you our thoughts on which players are likely to win each group – Sinner and Zverev – with a detailed explanation of why we think that.
We also provided an outright winner – Sinner – based on everything we’ve observed. We also added a dark horse candidate – Zverev – to win the event in case you’re feeling very bold and want to try a surprise.
Bren is our resident Kiwi, and has been playing or watching sports down under in New Zealand for the better part of three decades. With 12+ years experience as a professional writer, Bren loves to dive deep into all things sport to bring the best betting analysis and predictions here at Mr Fixits Tips.
