The third round of Wimbledon is here already, which means bigger and bigger names begin to clash. One of these matches takes place this Friday, with defending champion Carlos Alcaraz coming up against former top 10 player Frances Tiafoe.
Who will prevail in this tantalising encounter on day five of Wimbledon? Read on for our Alcaraz vs Tiafoe prediction and betting tips, as we break down each player’s path to victory and look at the latest betting odds.
Player Form: Two Very Different Years
Let’s call a spade a spade: Alcaraz and Tiafoe are two very different players right now.
Alcaraz has been somewhat in Jannik Sinner’s shadow in 2024, but has still won a Grand Slam and a Masters 1000 title. The Spaniard has a 28-6 win-loss record for the season so far, and has made a strong start here in London. Having gone all the way and won the tournament last year, the world No. 3 has navigated his first two matches without any issues, winning in straight sets.
Tiafoe, however, has had a torrid year. He’s barely in the green, only balancing his win-loss record to 15-14 this week at Wimbledon. The American has taken 11 losses to players outside the world’s top 50 in 2024, and recently came under fire for saying he’s been “losing to clowns” the last year.
So far at Wimbledon, he’s shown surprising character. The world No. 29 came back from two sets to love down against Matteo Arnaldi in the opening round, before ousting Borna Coric in straight sets to make the third round.
How the Bookies View It: Alcaraz By a Mile
Bookmaker Betfred has Alcaraz well ahead in this clash, with the 21-year-old at 1/14 to win. Tiafoe is a huge dog at 7/1, while set betting expect this will be over quickly, paying 8/13 for Alcaraz to win in straights.
Recent Head-to-Head: Last One Was Big
Alcaraz and Tiafoe have split their meetings so far, winning one each. Last time they met, it was the US Open semi-finals in 2022, which Alcaraz won in five sets.
Anything Else Catch the Eye?
Tiafoe is a big match player. He’s won three of his last four matches against players in the top five at Grand Slams. He’s also only ever lost in straight sets to a top 10 player three times at Grand Slams, from 13 matches.
Alcaraz vs Tiafoe Betting Tips & Predictions
Alcaraz will move through to the Round of 16, but it’ll be tougher for the No. 3 seed than bookmakers are predicting. Expect ‘Big Foe’ to win a set as he rises to the occasion.
- Tiafoe +6.5 @ 1/1
- Alcaraz to win 3-1 @ 5/2
The pair play first on Centre Court this Friday, so head over to our outright betting predictions while you wait.
Bren is our resident Kiwi, and has been playing or watching sports down under in New Zealand for the better part of three decades. With 12+ years experience as a professional writer, Bren loves to dive deep into all things sport to bring the best betting analysis and predictions here at Mr Fixits Tips.
