The ATP Finals are well underway, and in today’s best tennis betting tips we’re going to take a closer look at day two. Two very interesting matches will be played this Monday, and we have found some great value for you. Read on for a look at what exactly we found.
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The first of these matches is between Carlos Alcaraz and Casper Ruud. It’s been a one-sided matchup so far and we’re going to back it to continue being so. The other is also a matchup which likely will go only one way, as Alexander Zverev takes on Andrey Rublev.
Alcaraz vs Ruud – under 20.5 @ 5/6
Finding some good value in this matchup was extremely tough, because the odds were not in our favour. Alcaraz is the overwhelming favourite and for good reason. He’s 4-2 against Ruud all time, and more recently has dominated this matchup.
Indoors and generally on hard courts, Ruud is very disadvantaged, especially lately with his form being all over the place. Basically, Alcaraz should win this match easily barring some spectacular turnaround.
The value that we found lies in the under market. Backing Alcaraz to win gets you nothing, even backing him 2-0 to win gets you very little so we looked at the games. Backing the under makes sense because Alcaraz should be able to break Ruud at least twice and easily so.
With a 6-4, 6-4 finish the number will stay under the 20.5 and we think it’s very likely. The Spaniard is simply the much better player overall.
Zverev to defeat Rublev 2-0 @ 5/6
Now this one is a bit tricky because the under might not apply well here. For one, Rublev is capable of keeping this a relatively close matchup, meaning he could push the sets to be 7-5 or 7-6.
In fact, indoors it’s actually very likely. Rublev is a very solid indoor player. He won’t beat Zverev because the German has been in fine form lately, having recently won the trophy in Paris and very comfortably so.
Rublev and Zverev played at the event last year as well and Zverev won that one 6-4, 6-4. That’s what made us back this 2-0 outcome. Zverev is playing super well and serving well.
The courts here play somewhat faster than usual which should help him keep his serve. While Rublev could make this a bit more interesting, it’s very likely that he would still stumble in the tiebreak, given how his mental game has been in 2024.
With the form and how the matchup has gone so far, there is a really solid chance that Zverev simply wins this one in two straight sets.
What makes this bet so good is that it doesn’t matter if it’s 6-1, 6-2 or 7-6, 7-6. Both work and we think it’s likely.
Bren is our resident Kiwi, and has been playing or watching sports down under in New Zealand for the better part of three decades. With 12+ years experience as a professional writer, Bren loves to dive deep into all things sport to bring the best betting analysis and predictions here at Mr Fixits Tips.
