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Zizi did it well following decent market support yesterday, proving early odds of 5/1 to be very much on the generous side as she won by a cozy two lengths.
| Chelmsford - 16:50 |
Poke The Bear |
12/1 |
On Saturday, it's a tricky day as far as I’m concerned, and I’d certainly argue that the early market has it right in most cases.
One race that does appeal from a value-for-money point o view is the second at Chelmsford, a nursery event over seven furlongs, which is low-grade stuff, that’s for sure.
Ahead of what is absolutely a weak contest, Poke The Bear looks a little generously priced at odds of 12/1. I’m struggling to see why, with many of his rivals having offered very little promise, the Amy Murphy runner is quite that big in the early betting.
Most recent effort not without promise
After three modest (at best) efforts, the gelding improved to run reasonably well over this trip at Kempton last time out, finishing sixth (of 12), keeping on towards the death following late headway.
He was caught too far back that day and was never going to lay down a serious challenge, but if he’s left with a bit less to do here, then he could quite easily make his presence felt in what is clearly a weaker contest, especially as he's right up there in terms of speed ratings.
What’s key is that this race contains much less strength in depth, so he wouldn’t need to come on much to get more heavily involved.
From a decent draw, for a trainer who does well at Chelmsford, delivering a highly profitable strike rate in the last year, the two-year-old is worth betting on to get the job done while odds of 12/1 are on offer.
Based on a £10 level-stakes example, the Nap of the Day running profit is +£64 (since switching to being published here (10/09/2024) rather than on the ‘Nap of the Day' page).
Well done yesterday I did put 2 messages up but always in moderation so never seen
Thanks :) Sorry for not responding. If your messages do get put in moderation, I don’t have anything to do with that. All I do is do the bet research and write the article each day, nothing else. I’ll always respond to comments if I see them.