Saturday’s Racing Tips – Carrytheone looks ahead of the handicapper at Newmarket

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It was another profitable day on Friday as Rizz managed to land two winners with Fairbanks and No Half Measures. 

My sole selection Heavens Gate looked awkward when asked to go and win the race while Rizzel's other selection Mousey Brown didn't stay the trip.

Saturday's racing is filled with quality but from a punting angle looks as tough as ever. We've two selections each from between the meetings at Newmarket, York, and Ascot.

Cairnzy's Tips

Carrytheone 7/2 – Newmarket 4.00

My first selection for Saturday's racing is the Michael Bell-trained Carrytheone who despite being one of the older horses in the race, comes here with a massive chance of an unchanged mark of 101. Ryan Moore has been booked for the ride and if going of his previous couple of runs, he still looks ahead of the handicapper in my opinion.

Originally trained in Ireland by J P Murtagh, Carrytheone switched hands to Michael Bell at the start of the year. His first two outings for his new trainer were a tad underwhelming finishing midpack on both occasions over 7f at Ascot and Newmarket. He bounced back to form two runs ago when landing a class 2 handicap at Newmarket over 7f. He only won by a short head that day but the winning distance doesn't tell the whole story. Carrytheone was denied a clear run on more than one occasion and had he had a clear passage, he probably would have won by a few lengths and he seemingly had a lot in hand that day.

His most recent run at Royal Ascot in the Buckingham Palace Stakes was another cracking effort, finishing 4L behind English Oak in third. It was a similar scenario for Carrytheone that day as he was positioned alongside the rail and had little racing room to put down his effort in the business end. Once in the clear, he rattled home to knick third spot, and had he been positioned better for a clear run, I think he would have finished a lot closer to the eventual winner. The booking of Ryan Moore looks key to this selection, we all know he is one of the best in the business and if he can get Carrytheone in a nice position to challenge, he will surely be bang there at the finish.

Quddwah 13/8 – Ascot 2.20

This doesn't look like the strongest of renewals and I'll be disappointed if Quddwah isn't able to justify favoritism for punters in this contest.

Trained by Charlie Fellowes, Quddwah was a combination of both impressive and immature last year. He very much learned on the job on debut at Salisbury, running around in the final furlong or so but getting up between horses to win by a neck to the Ralph Beckett-trained Balance Play. The form of that race reads well with Balance Play going on to win multiple races since, most recently last year when winning a class 2 handicap at Newbury on heavy ground by just under 2L.

Quddwah followed up on his debut success two weeks later at Newbury, winning by one and a quarter lengths to Theatre Honours. Quddwah again showed signs of inexperience that day ( awkward head carriage ) but showed a good attitude to pick up the pieces in the final two furlongs and won with a decent amount in hand. Quddwah was then given a break of just under a year, I'm assuming it was to develop and mature in that period.

The time of the track seemed to work a treat for my selection as he returned in May to land a listed contest at Ascot, getting up on the line to beat Docklands by a neck with the favorite Maljoom back in third. The form of that run also reads well, with both Docklands and Maljoom placing second and third at Royal Ascot in the Group 1 Queen Anne.

Rizzel's Tips

Lou Lou's Gift 7/2 – Newmarket 2.12

I think this race is going to be about the improving fillies who are rated at the bottom of this race, with the William Buick ridden Lou Lou's Gift being my selection.

This lightly raced filly is the model of consistency, as she hasn't finished out of the top three on all of her starts to date. She has also done nothing but improve, with her winning on her final start as a juvenile, and has then come back with a solid third on her first start over 7f, and then managed to win her second race of her career last time out over today's C&D.

The form of the third-placed effort at Kempton on the AW looks solid. At the time, I had a feeling that the race was going to work out well as the winner was strongly hyped up by Richard Hughes, who said she had been aimed at the Wokingham for the best part of a year, she didn't exactly run great in that race but then went to France and won a Listed contest, which heavily boosted Lou Lou Gift's third-place behind her. The fourth, fifth and eighth-placed horses have all come out and won since, franking the form further.

Lou Lou's Gift was strongly fancied in the market when winning at Newmarket last time out, going off at odds of 10/11F. She recorded an RPR of 98 (+17 to her handicap mark on the day), and the three horses behind her all ran to form based on their RPRs, so it's a good indicator that she has improved a fair amount from her first run of the season, battering horses who have run well in defeat. She has gone up 7lbs in the handicap, which seems fine as that performance could've seen her raised a couple more. The ground should not be an issue as she is by Lope De Vega who has produced many soft ground horses, so the expected good to soft ground should be fine based on her pedigree.

The two horses below her in the weights for this race were my idea of the main threats. The Ralph Beckett horse has gone up 15lbs in the handicap for her runaway success at Chelmsford. This is a totally different ball game, but she's evidently in good form. The Karl Burke horse has to be respected as she won on this C&D a few weeks ago and put in a visually impressive performance.

Remaadd 10/1 – York 3.10

Putting up a selection in one of the toughest handicaps of the year might seem a little odd, but Remaadd looks good value in the John Smith's Cup at York.

It is strange to see a three-year-old in this race, as it is very difficult to even get into this race for a young horse due to the nature of how handicaps like this are virtually Class 1 races with a wig on and when the younger horses get the weight for age allowance, they have to be high rated to even get a squeak in at the bottom of the weights. Remaadd gets into this race running off 8st 9lbs and is rated 103, which is 10lbs more than the older horses carrying the same race weight. There has only been one three-year-old who has run in this race since 2011, and that proves how difficult it is, and that it's not a usual target for the younger horses who are rated 100+ as Listed and Group races are what they would be racing in. Other than the one runner in 2019, a three-year-old won this race in 2010 and that horse was the sole runner of his age group in that race, so it's not a bad strike rate.

William Haggas is a very shrewd trainer when it comes to races like this. He will not run a horse of this nature, especially when the stats suggest not many turn up to this race, unless he firmly believes he can win it. William is a Yorkshire lad but trains in Newmarket, and he loves having winners at this venue, as his strike rate would suggest (17% from 668 runners). Haggas won this race in 2011, 2013 and 2020 so he definitely knows the type of horse which is required, and that is normally a group horse. Based on his runs to date, Remaadd fits that bill. He was third in a Group 3, he was poor in Listed company last time out but that was over a mile, and with just five runs under his belt he should be a key player in this race, despite his inexperience.

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