Racing tips: The drop in class will bring Sense Of Duty back to form

This tip has expired. Please check our free horse racing tips section of the website to find the most up to date.

If The Busy Fool didn't make a pig's ear of the second last hurdle he would've won his race and he drifted out to 10/1 as well. Law Of Supply was a bit too keen in the early stages of his race, jumped very nicely and we'll get our money back on him in the future. Broomfield Present jumped in patches, but it was at its worst at the end of the race and that cost him his chance of winning. Similar to the other Kim Bailey horse, he'll be a tip on this thread in the future and we'll be getting our money back, even though we didn't lose anything on him as he was placed.

Kelso 1:05 – Butler's Brief 15/2 (0.5pt EW SkyBet 4pl)

With all the good racing we have on Saturday it seems a little strange having a selection at Kelso, but I think I might've found something worth having a small bet on.

Butler's Brief is Alastair Ralph's first runner at Kelso, ever. Ralph has been training since the 2011/12 season and he has never had a runner at this Scottish border track, which is surprising, but he isn't one for sending his horses to the northern parts of the UK and into Scotland, he tends to keep his horses at more local tracks, so the fact he is sending this horse all the way up to Kelso could be a tip in itself.

Nick Schofield goes up for the ride on Butler's Brief and goes up for two rides in total. This horse is definitely the main reason to be travelling to Kelso as the other is on a spare for a trainer he has never ridden for before, whereas he has been a regular rider for Butler's Brief.

This horse is best suited on soft ground, which he'll get today. His recent run was a decent effort considering it was on much quicker than ideal ground and I believe you can forgive his form from his win in July to now as the ground wasn't ideal and he had a try over fences.

Newcastle 2:05 – Sense Of Duty 5/2 (2pt, put up early on Friday morning)

I put this horse up early on Friday morning as I thought the price would be gone by the time Saturday's selections went live, so I thought it was for everyone's best interest to get the best price on Sense Of Duty.

Now I've put her up very early as I don't think she'll drift at all, she'll end up drifting. In all seriousness, if she's back to the level of her 2022 campaign, she should be running away with this race, as she is a very talented horse on her day and her form from her Newcastle win over 6f in April 2022 is head and shoulders above this field. She recorded an RPR of 116 that day at Newcastle and the form of that race has worked out nicely since, especially with Annaf who was the runner-up that day. Annaf has since been placed at Group 1 level and has won many races, and if he was to turn up to this race he'd be the favourite, so, in theory, Sense Of Duty should be a fair bit shorter than the 5/2 on offer early Friday morning.

She wasn't seen for over a year, clearly having complications, but she returned at Newbury when finishing 3rd on testing ground, it was a nice pipe opener for her and I can't imagine soft ground is what she wants, hence why I think you can overlook her last run on Champions Day as that was testing ground too.

Aintree 1:35 – Imperial Merlin 3/1 (2pt)

I'm not a big fan of betting in the Pertemps Qualifying races as you only need to be placed in the top 4 (I think) to qualify for the final race at Cheltenham, so you often get horses doing the bare minimum and not really wanting to win. However, Imperial Merlin still looks like a horse who is on the up over staying trips and can add another win to his already good record.

He has always looked like a horse with plenty of ability, he did his fair share of winning/running in novice races last year which saw him win when carrying a penalty and he did well when trying to defy a double penalty but was beaten by a Lucinda Russell newcomer who looked like a nice horse for the future, and that same horse makes his chase debut today. This horse fell dropped back down to 2m 3f, he was pitching with a decent chance but probably would've struggled, but was in the midst of making a decent race of it. On his final start on his first attempt over 3m he won and beat some decent handicappers, and from that performance, I thought there was still a fair bit to come from him before the handicapper catches up to him.

Wincanton 2:25 – Forward Plan 25/1 (0.5pt EW PaddyPower 4pl)

I'm hoping the ground isn't going to be too testing, as the current description is soft and good to soft in places with no further rain expected to land at Wincanton, so based on that I'll take a chance on Forward Plan.

Anthony Honeyball sends three for this race, so he's not messing around and will like to come away with something to show for it and I think his best chance in this is Forward Plan. I wouldn't read into Rex Dingle riding Gustavian as Forward Plan is normally ridden by Ben Harvey and it's vital that Ben remains in the saddle for this ride as he claims 3lb which is a big help considering this horse is 7lb out of the handicap. Sending a horse into a race out of the handicap isn't ideal, but I think it shows the belief that Anthony has in this horse and I can see why.

This horse made good strides as a chaser last season, winning over 3m and 3m 2f, albeit in a lesser grade, but when he was up in grade at Ayr at their spring festival I thought he ran a nice race, especially with how the race unfolded. The winner that day got an uncontested lead and scooted many lengths clear, so it was always going to be a tough task to catch him, especially when he was as well handicapped as he was that day. I thought his run at Kelso over 3m 2f was a decent effort as well, he didn't quite stay the trip on testing ground that day, but Kelso is a demanding track on a horse's stamina and he ran with credit again, and the form of that race has worked out quite well since.

Anthony has come out and said that this has been the target for this horse, obviously many of these would have been targetted it, but he's running off bottom weight and they could've gone for another target where he wasn't running from out of the handicap, so he gets the vote.

Horse Racing Tips

🔗 Share Your Horse Racing Tips on Social Media