ENGLAND have been building up an impressive head of steam at Qatar 2022 but they will need to topple the defending champions and the best player in the world to keep their dream alive today.
Gareth Southgate’s record at major finals is hugely impressive and victory over France would take the Three Lions into a third successive semi-final.
However, the England boss still has his doubters, mainly because the only big scalp he has claimed so far was that of Germany in Euro 2020 on home soil at Wembley.
Beating the world champions would silence the doubters and I fancy England to pull it off, even though Kylian Mbappe has been winning games almost single-handedly for France.
The PSG striker was the breakout star of Russia 2018 as he won the World Cup as a teenager and looks even more deadly now.
He boasts five goals from just four games in Qatar and delivered for me with a double after I’d backed him to score in the last 16 against Poland.
There’s no doubt Mbappe has the ability to put England to the sword as well but France don’t look as impressive as they did four years ago.
While Didier Deschamps has been reliant on his star man so far, with back-up from veteran Olivier Giroud, Southgate has seen so many players chip in for the Three Lions.
England are the top scorers at the World Cup with 12 goals so far – and only one of those strikes has come from skipper Harry Kane.
In Jude Bellingham and Phil Foden, the English boast two of the most exciting young players in the world while the likes of Bukayo Saka, Marcus Rashford and Jack Grealish have been making an impact either as starters or off the bench.
McBookie price England at 21/20 to reach the semi-finals and that looks good value to me, with the odds increasing to 2/1 if you back them to win inside 90 minutes.
France are 3/4 favourites to qualify and their price rises to 7/5 to finish the job without extra time and penalties.
It wouldn’t be a major finals if England weren’t involved in some penalty drama and this one could go all the way.
The draw at 90 minutes pays 21/10 at McBookie, who price both sides at 9/1 for a victory in a penalty shoot-out.
Foul bets have been the most profitable market for me at this World Cup and I’m dipping into those waters again for this one.
Unibet offer a tempting evens on Mbappe to be fouled over 1.5 times while the same firm price French stopper Rafa Varane at 10/11 committed over 0.5 fouls.
While England’s clash with France is the headline act at Qatar 2022 today, there’s also a tasty starter as free-scoring Portugal face a mean Morocco side.
Walid Regragui’s men have the chance to make history as no African side has ever reached the semis.
They have only conceded once in the entire tournament but Portugal have more punch in attack than a Spanish side that monopolised possession but failed to lay a glove on the Moroccans in the last 16.
I expected Switzerland to be a tough nut to crack for the Portuguese in the last 16 but it turned into a rout instead as Fernando Santos’ side won 6-1.
The gaffer took a gamble by leaving Cristiano Ronaldo on the bench but it paid off in style as replacement Goncalo Ramos ran riot to grab a hat-trick.
That will surely earn the Benfica kid another start today and Ramos is 11/5 with William Hill to grab another goal. But I’m more drawn to the 6/4 on offer at Unibet for the youngster to have over 1.5 shots on target.
Backing Sofyan Amrabat for a card backfired for me in Morocco’s win over Spain but the Fiorentina man still got stuck in.
He’s 3/1 at Bet365 for a card today and that looks overpriced given his career track record.
Morocco have won just three corners in the entire tournament so Portugal -3 in the corner handicap looks good (13/10, Paddy Power) as they have been averaging five a game.
Super singles
- England to qualify (21/10, McBookie)
- Mbappe fouled over 1.5 times (evs, Unibet).
- Amrabat to be carded (3/1, Bet365).
- Portugal -3 corner h’cap (13/10, PaddyPower)
I'm a sports journalist, football tipster and author from Dundee, who is now working in Glasgow. I've covered games at every level, from Junior football to internationals, and still love football even though it has clearly sold its soul. I've been in football tipping since 2018 with the MFT site.
