IT'S a packed day of tennis on Thursday at the Mutua Madrid Open with Andy Murray, Rafa Nadal and Roger Federer all in action.
Nadal was far from his best on an overcast Wednesday at La Caja Magica in his relatively comfortable win over Benoit Paire.
There are sure to be a few complaints about the state of these courts in Madrid as plenty of players have been slipping and sliding – arguably as much as on the infamous blue clay of 12 months ago – and Rafa was all over the place at times.
He was also poor on break-point chances, taking just two of seven opportunities, which did for my bet on Wednesday. There was some good news as my outright on Tomas Berdych is still alive after he came from behind to defeat Jerzy Janowicz impressively.
And we were in profit on my second recommended bet of the day when Mikhail Youzhny upset Nico Almagro to record a quick win for those who layed Almagro 2-0 and it would have been a great payout for those who went further and backed the Russian.
Thursday sees Andy Murray and Roger Federer in action, with Murray taking on Gilles Simon and Federer faces Kei Nishikori.
After Murray's stuttering effort against Florian Mayer in which he seemed totally shattered and gasping for air at times I won't be investing in the 1.21 about a Murray win.
He does have a great record against Simon of 10-1, including the last 10 in a row, and he's lost only three of his last 23 matches against Frenchmen. He should win this but if he produces a reactive performance like did against Mayer we could be here all day as Simon himself is pretty much a human backboard.
The Scot is tough to predict on clay but if I were betting in that match I'd take the over 20.5 total games at around 1.92.
A bet I prefer today is to side with fans' favourite Fernando Verdasco whose win over Milos Raonic will have given the Madrid man a much needed boost and today he has another winnable match against another big hitter in Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.
The Frenchman had to rely on Robin Haase's horrendous tie break record to overcome the Dutchman yesterday and I didn't see a great deal from him that should worry Verdasco.
Fernando has had a dreadful year or so and this would be a great place for him to get back on track at the venue where he took down Nadal last year and he's had success against Tsonga before so siding with the Spaniard appeals to me today.
I like the +3.5 game start on the handicap in this one and at home in conditions that suit against a poor returner like Tsonga, Verdasco should have every chance.
Recommended Bet
Back Verdasco +3.5 games to beat Tsonga at 1.9
Milesey (Betfair)
Resident football tipster at Scotland's most read newspaper, the Daily Record, for over 20 years and proud host of one the best betting communities on the web with daily betting tips.
T.Haas to win D.Ferer. Great odds on Haas… if somebody watching tenis will agree with me that T.Haas is beter then D.Ferer at this time.
Even though at this moment he’s down a set, I can’t disagree about Haas, the Germans been in excellent form recently with some impressive performances. He’s gone out to 7/2 now but he’s up a break in the 2nd, so nothing drastic from me just a £25 single. Could go either way this one but i’m already up for the day after Nishikori beat the goat who’s still a bit rusty after his two month lay off.
Nadal @ 1/2 has to be nailed on now for the outright, but if you fancy a punt you can still get 25’s for Dimitrov who’s knocking on the door of the top 10.
RESULT
( 2 – 6 ) ( 6 – 4 ) ( 7 – 6 ) MURRAY WIN
MURRAY V SIMON
over 20.5 total games at around 1.92
Milesey