Get ready for an exciting weekend of world football with these top betting tips. From a low-scoring encounter in the Liga Portugal to a faultless start in Malmö's latest Allsvenskan title challenge, there's something for every type of bettor.
Moreirense v Tondela
Saturday, 2pm
This was a Liga Portugal fixture this time last season, but relegation for Moreirense and Tondela confined them to the second-tier in this campaign. The good news for Saturday’s home team Moreirense is that it is set to be a short stay at this level, as they currently enjoy an eight-point gap at the top of the table with only five matches remaining. One win in four may suggest they’re wobbling to a degree, but with a ten-point gap to third spot, where only the top two are automatically promoted, they should still be more than fine.
Tondela haven’t really had it their own way and has struggled to mount any significant promotion bid this time around. They are bang in mid-table and are actually closer to the bottom three than they are the top, so it really is a case of now planning for next season. Despite their league standing, they have actually been very difficult to beat. In fact, only top two Moreirense and Estrela have suffered fewer defeats. Tondela however lead the league in draws with 15, and not turning enough of those into wins is why they are where they are.
This is generally quite a low-scoring league, with only three teams seeing their matches average at least 3.00 goals. A few weeks ago, Moreirense was actually involved in a 7-4 epic when getting the better of Benfica B, but that was clearly a freak result. Considering Tondela has been a tough opponent for most, and so have Moreirense for different reasons, you’d suspect this should be a much closer encounter. Under 2.5 Goals is available at 17/20 with Bet365 and there is a strong case to be made for backing this. It is mainly through the presence of Tondela, who have the lowest average goals per their matches with 2.00. Whilst Moreirense are at the opposite end of the spectrum, you just feel they’ll just try to get the job done in a steady manner, whilst Tondela will again look to keep things tight, and could frustrate their superior opponents.
Karagümrük v Antalyaspor
Saturday, 2pm
We are getting to the business end of the season in most of the European leagues, and that is certainly the case in the top flight of Turkish football. Karagümrük take on Antalyaspor in something of a mid-table battle this weekend, but it is still a contest which catches the eye for several reasons. Karagümrük have hit a good patch of form and have actually suffered just one league loss since Christmas Day. It won’t be enough to see them enter the qualification for Europe equation, however. Antalyaspor aren’t completely out of the relegation picture, so it could be argued this is a more important game than their opponents purely from a league-table perspective.
Despite sitting in the central portion of the standings, Karagümrük have still been a team to catch the eye across the campaign. A large reason for this is the sheer amount of goals that their matches do produce. 22 of their 29 league contests have defeated the 2.5 goal line, with the overall goal average standing at a whopping 4.00. Only big boys Fenerbahce and Galatasaray have managed to score more goals than Andrea Pirlo’s side, yet only three teams have conceded more goals. Entertainment is never too far away.
Antalyaspor are more of a middle-of-the-road sort of team in comparison for goals scored and goals conceded. One consistent angle about their matches this season is the struggles they have away from home. Only twice have they managed to secure three points on their travels, losing eight of their 14 in total. They have scored a huge 23 goals fewer than their weekend opponents, despite only three teams separating them in the table, so tactically they will need to come up with a plan to reduce Karagümrük’s attacking threat.
That is easier said than done, however, and everything is pointing towards Saturday’s hosts getting at least a couple of goals to their name once more. Karagümrük have netted two or more goals in 17 of their last 22 league fixtures, but the fact they’ve remained largely inconsistent in terms of results in that period suggests they aren’t one to remain maximum faith in from a win perspective. A safer play is to back Karagümrük to score Over 1.5 Team Goals at Evens with William Hill.
Gil Vicente v Benfica
Saturday, 8.30pm
The third and final play we like the look of across the Saturday card in the European footballing scene allows us to take in Gil Vincente against top of the table Benfica. With the visitors now out of the UEFA Champions League at the hands of Inter recently, all focus can now return to domestic matters and claiming the league title. The gap between them and Porto has now reduced to four-points after recently suffering consecutive losses, so they will want to avoid needlessly dropping more points.
You would suspect they won’t do that when making the trip to Barcelos to take on a Gil Vicente outfit who still remain in the relegation picture, but by all accounts shouldn’t be relegated with a nine-point gap ahead of the bottom-three with only 15 points left to play for. Still, they’ll want to mathematically get it done as soon as possible, although they probably head into this clash as big underdogs knowing little is expected of them. This team has won away at Porto and drawn at home to Sporting CP this season, so they can spring a surprise result.
One thing going for Benfica though is they do have a perfect record against teams in a similar part of the table to Gil Vicente. When I say perfect, I do mean perfect! It probably isn’t a surprise considering they’ve lost only three league games all season, but to have won 11/11 against teams currently positioned 11th or below deserves big credit. The fact that two of their three losses came recently should sharpen the mind if anything to get back on track, and they’ll look to do a job on their opponents in this one.
One good angle to approach this clash from a betting perspective is to get Benfica on side whilst keeping a clean sheet. They lead the league for shutouts with 18 out of 29, and they’ve only shipped five goals in total across their away league matches, which is quite something. Therefore, getting a price of 5/4 with Parimatch on Benfica to Win to Nil looks far, far too good to turn down.
Columbus Crew v Inter Miami
Sunday 12:30am
Major League Soccer really is one of my favourites and the league is now starting to settle nicely into a new season. Every team has played eight or nine games in the two Conference’s and we can now really start to locate a few trends to make our lives as bettors potentially that little bit easier. Columbus Crew versus Inter Miami is one particular encounter that has grabbed my attention and there is one angle I really like the look of.
First, let us set the scene in terms of how The Crew have begun the new season. Wilfried Nancy was given the task in the off-season of taking over the strong foundations left by his predecessor Caleb Porter, who won MLS Cup back in 2020. It has been a solid start under the Frenchman, especially at home. They are yet to taste defeat at Lower.com Field, and already have 6-1 and 4-0 wins to their name here over Atlanta United and Real Salt Lake respectively. Like most in MLS, they will have a much stronger home record than on the road considering the distances the clubs have to cover, and you have to go all the way back to August for the last time they suffered a home loss. They’re odds-on favourites to get another win to their name and continue their assault on the top places in the Eastern Conference.
One opponent they probably would have handpicked to face in an upcoming home match is Inter Miami. It has been a very, very tough start to the campaign for Phil Neville’s side, and the former Manchester United man insists he retains the full support of the club hierarchy, headlined by his ex-teammate David Beckham. Whilst that may be the case now, a few more defeats could see that change. Optimism was high after starting the season with back-to-back wins, both at home, but they’ve followed that up with six straight losses. They have failed to score in five of those losses, too. Something needs to change, and just scoring a goal away from home would resemble improvement at this stage.
Inter Miami have also failed to score on their two previous visits to Columbus, so history also counts against them in this one. The signing of striker Josef Martinez to replace the now retired Gonzalo Higuaín has not worked out so far, and you just wonder when or even if things will click going forward for this team. We obviously can’t have much faith in them right now, so Columbus Crew really are the team to be on. Backing Columbus Crew to Win and Under 4.5 Goals is priced at Evens with Coral, and really should be a winning selection. Whilst Inter Miami are consistently losing, they aren’t being heavily defeated. This has been a winning selection in ten of Columbus’ last 13 MLS victories.
Malmö v Hammarby
Sunday, 2pm
Last and by no means least, we focus on a big game on the Swedish footballing card on Sunday when Malmö welcomes Hammarby to Eleda Stadium. It has been a faultless start to Malmö’s latest Allsvenskan title challenge with four wins from four to start the campaign. They’ve conceded only one goal in the process, and they’ll no doubt be more than pleased with their start. It is a case of a mixed bag for Hammarby after two wins and two defeats. It has been a case of beating who they’d expect to beat and away defeats to AIK and Hacken aren’t massive shocks, but they’ll be disappointed.
Things therefore need to improve for Hammarby when they make another tough looking away journey on Sunday; a game that is indeed harder on paper than the current two they’ve already played and lost. Eleda Stadium just simply is not a place that Hammarby likes to visit, and the fact they lasted tasted a win here was in 2008 is a good reflection of that. One big concern for Hammarby is that in both away defeats so far they were fair results, and the Expected Goals (xG) count confirms that.
Malmö have created enough opportunities in their opening four encounters to warrant more goals to their name, so it is to the fear of the rest of the league that they’ve got the results they’ve got despite not necessarily being at their best. They certainly won’t be taking Hammarby for granted given how capable they are on their day, but they’ll still expect to make it five from five on Sunday. The bookies agree as you’re getting odds-on quotes for the home team to oblige. They are clearly the team to side with, and backing a home win alongside Over 1 Goal pays 20/21 with Bet365. Even in the two games Malmö won 1-0, they should have added another goal at least, and with more games under their belts you’d suspect they’ll sharpen up even further offensively. Hammarby only have one clean sheet to their name, and even in that game the xG count suggested Varberg were good for a goal, so the selection should have a great chance of coming off.
Betting Tips
- Moreirense v Tondela – Under 2.5 Goals (17/20 Bet365)
- Karagümrük v Antalyaspor – Karagümrük Over 1.5 Team Goals (Evens William Hill)
- Gil Vicente v Benfica – Benfica to Win to Nil (5/4 Parimatch)
- Columbus Crew v Inter Miami – Columbus Crew to Win and Under 4.5 Goals (Evens Coral)
- Malmö v Hammarby – Malmö to Win and Over 1 Goal (20/21 Bet365)
