Women’s US Open draw and bracket: quarter-by-quarter analysis

The US Open is upon us, and it promises to be a very exciting showdown between some of the best players in the world. We’ve dived deep into the women’s US Open draw for a quarter-by-quarter analysis before the first ball is served in New York.

World No. 1 Iga Swiatek is there and hoping to win her second US Open trophy. Defending champion Coco Gauff will vying for the title too, hoping to also win her second US Open, as will last year’s runner-up Aryna Sabalenka, who is also searching for her third Grand Slam trophy. 

Sabalenka is widely regarded as the top favourite, but the super-quick courts and the new/old light tennis balls add an additional storyline to what promises to be an already exciting affair. 

Read on as we break the US Open women’s draw down quarter-by-quarter to see how things might unfold.

Women’s US Open draw analysis – quarter breakdown

First quarter (top seed – Iga Swiatek)

As is customary, the top seed at a Grand Slaim is located in the first slot of the draw. This year, it’s Iga Swiatek, and simply by that, she’s the favourite to win this quarter. 

Swiatek’s form does warrant thistype of optimism, but more than that is questionable. We haven’t seen her produce at her absolute best level in recent weeks, and her lone prep event came in Cincinnati. That should be enough for a couple of wins, but it doesn’t guarantee that she’s a sure-thing to win this quarter.

That’s mostly because Jessica Pegula is also in it, and she’s been the best-performing player leading up to the US Open. 

The American won the Canadian Open and made the Cincinnati Open final, so she won’t be easy to deal with. She, though, has a bigger problem than Swiatek initially because she is staring at a potential clash with Emma Raducanu in the second round. This depends on whether she beats Shelby Rogers and if Raducanu beats Sofia Kenin, and both seem likely.

Two other players stick out from this quarter. One is Danielle Collins, who won the Miami Open this year and is going to play her final US Open. That makes her a dangerous opponent, as she’ll play without pressure and will have heavy fan backing. She’s also on Pegula’s side of the quarter, making her path to the quarter-finals really tough.

Mirra Andreeva is another name to watch. The Russian has been playing amazing tennis this year and did well in New York last year. She could potentially be Swiatek’s opponent in the fourth round, which would be an amazing match to watch.

Projected quarter-final: Iga Swiatek vs Jessica Pegula

Second quarter (top seed – Elena Rybakina)

The next quarter doesn’t lack any kind of firepower, as Elena Rybakina is the big name here. 

Rybakina hasn’t played that much tennis lately due to physical issues but did play one match in Cincinnati. It wasn’t the best match, though, but even so, she should do really well in New York on talent alone. A few wins would get her into a solid rhythm, and then anything is possible. 

The No. 4 seed’s first match should be against a qualifier, and then it will probably be Elise Mertens in the next round. This doesn’t look too complicated for her, though she might face Caroline Wozniacki in round three, which could be a potentially tricky one.

Rankings-wise, the top player in her quarter is Jasmine Paolini. 

She might not be the biggest name, but she played in the last two Grand Slam finals. The Italian is far from a pushover and actually beat Rybakina at Roland-Garros. Getting that rematch between them would be amazing, but there are some dangers lurking for Paolini in the draw. Chiefly, former champion Bianca Andreescu, whom she’ll face in the first round.

Another tricky one for Rybakina could be Leylah Fernandez, who also stood in the final here a couple of years ago and actually bested the Kazakhstani player in Cincinnati recently. 

Jelena Ostapenko is another player who could stun from the shadows. She’s an incredible hitter who thrives in these conditions. Don’t forget that it was she who bested Iga Swiatek at the US Open last year.

Projected quarter-final: Elena Rybakina vs Jasmine Paolini

Third quarter (top seed – Coco Gauff) 

This quarter belongs to defending champion Coco Gauff, who found herself in the 96th position in the draw chart. 

Gauff’s US Open series has been pretty bad so far, as she failed to impress in both Toronto and Cincinnati. It’s very different from last year’s when she played well and then won the US Open. If her recent level indicates what’s to come, she won’t be winning this year’s US Open trophy, but her draw doesn’t look too bad. 

The American starts off against Varvara Gracheva, who is fairly beatable. Elina Svitolina might wait in the third round, but that’s a solid matchup for her. Three players stick out as those who could end her run before she gets out of this part of the draw.

The first one is Emma Navarro whom she could face in the fourth round if both win their matches. What makes this one tricky for her is that Navarro outplayed her at Wimbledon and possesses a game that can trouble Gauff quite a bit. 

The second player is Barbora Krejcikova, whom she would face in the quarter-final if they both won all their matches. Krejcikova is a tricky player to gauge because she’s incredibly streaky. She won Wimbledon when nobody saw it coming. The same thing happened at Roland-Garros a couple of years ago. It mostly comes down to how well she feels and plays, and on her best days, she can beat Gauff. 

The final player is Paula Badosa, with the Spaniard playing at a high level recently. She won the Citi Open in Washington and maintained a solid level in the previous events. Badosa is a really solid hitter and has a good serve, which is the skill-set you need to do wonders at the US Open. She’s also proven to be quite a tough matchup for Gauff in the past. 

Still, with the crowd backing her and her comfort level being high in New York, not seeing Gauf at least in the quarter-final will be a major surprise.

Projected quarter-final: Coco Gauff vs Paula Badosa

Fourth quarter (top seed – Aryna Sabalenka) 

The final quarter is reserved for the second seed at the event, and it’s Aryna Sabalenka this year. According to many, she’s the top favourite to win the event because she’s playing the best tennis right now. 

The Belarusian just won Cincinnati in pretty dominant fashion, and as we saw last year, those who win Cincinnati generally do well in New York. The draw was pretty solid for her as she has a qualifier in the first round, and none of the players she could face early look that dangerous. 

Ons Jabeur was shaping up as a challenge because she’s beaten Sabalenka in the past and stood in the US Open final in 2022, but the Tunisian just withdrew injured on Friday.

Her biggest threat, though, will be Madison Keys. Keys is an extraordinary player who regrettably rarely finds her best tennis. It tends to happen more often on US soil, meaning her fourth-round match against Sabalenka would be fireworks. 

If Sabalenka passes that test, she likely won’t have many issues with Croat Donna Vekic.

She’s expected to cruise comfortably to at least the semi-final, and then anything can happen. Sabalenka missed out on the trophy last year, but expect her to be quite motivated this year, and make the most of her peak form right now.

Projected quarter-final: Aryna Sabalenka vs Donna Vekic

So here you have it, a breakdown of the women’s US Open draw, quarter-by-quarter. There are plenty of exciting matches, as we’re only a handful of days away from the event – who’s your pick for the final weekend?

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