MFT Safe James

It's another exhilarating weekend of football action, as clubs from various leagues gear up to showcase their prowess on the pitch.

With the dust settled from the international break, it's back to business for teams looking to climb up the rankings or break their losing streaks.

From the bustling stadiums of the Premier League to the gritty arenas of the National League and the electric atmosphere of Major League Soccer, there's no shortage of thrilling matchups.

As always, the stakes are high, the energy palpable, and the goals—well, we're expecting plenty.

So let's dive into the specifics of some of the most intriguing contests this weekend has to offer, and perhaps help you make an informed bet or two along the way.

Fulham vs Luton Town

Saturday, 3pm

With the international break done and dusted, Premier League clubs welcome back players from their respective countries and look to go again. The break was a benefit to some, whilst others would have preferred to keep on going. For Fulham and Luton, it could be argued it came at a good time for them. Fulham lost 5-1 at Manchester City last time out, whereas The Hatters have lost three from three, but nobody is panicking just yet.

For all that nobody is necessary worrying in the Luton camp given they’ve lost all three, all against strong opposition, clearly they want to get a point on the board as quickly as possible. A trip to Craven Cottage presents a very realistic chance to do so, and I suspect they’ll have a right go in this one. It is well-documented that Fulham defensively can be got at, and are far from convincing in that respect.

As for Fulham, they of course view this as a game they really should be winning. Anything less would be dropped points in their eyes. That is just the way it is going to be for Luton this season, everyone will expect to beat them, especially at home, but they are certainly no pushovers. Fulham haven’t been so convincing at the start of this season but you can often count on them to produce a performance at home more often than not. Neither team have really impressed defensively, and with both viewing this as a game they can win, I can only see goals here.

I really like the look of 1.91 on offer from Bet365 on Over 2.5 Goals. It jumps out a mile to me! Luton games are just going to hit over’s for now whilst they adjust to the league and can begin to prove they can be tighter defensively against stronger opposition than they’ve been used to facing last season. Fulham will see plenty of the ball and have their moments, but so will Luton, who aren’t coming to park the bus. Both teams are seeing an average of at least 3.50 goals per Premier League game so far, so run with this theme for now.

York City v Southend United

Saturday, 3pm

I’ve been having a good run of it on National League action this season and one match that instantly wet my appetite comes in the form of two former EFL clubs in York City and Southend United. A quick glance at the league table will show that this is a bottom-two encounter after eight games of the campaign, with York already changing their manager, whilst Southend would be in a play-off place if they didn’t start the season with a point deduction.

As mentioned, York have changed the man in the dugout, and Neal Ardley has already had one game at the helm when overseeing the 2-2 home draw with Boreham Wood last time out. He had only had two training sessions with the team going into that clash, but he stressed not to expect mass changes so soon into his tenure. We saw the good and bad for York in that match, so for the short-term at least we can’t expect them to be anything close to what Ardley wants them to be eventually.

Southend have been through it all in the off-season, and just for the club to be able to get a team on the pitch and also keep them in existence is an achievement in itself. Whilst they sit bottom of the standings, the reality is that they’d be 5th if not for starting the season with a -10 handicap. Holding the best xGA number in the league suggests they’re doing a lot right defensively, but my worry at the minute if they aren’t able to match what they do at home compared to on the road. They won’t be alone in having that problem, but you have to give York a chance here, whereas if they were the away side I’d have less optimism over their chances.

For all that Southend have been quite tight defensively, their games are still averaging 3.00 goals per game, whilst York’s have seen a higher figure than this. York are near the bottom because of their defensive record, which only betters that of Aldershot Town and AFC Fylde. Ardley will look to address this, but it’ll take time, especially when he got the squad he’d like in terms of his ‘own players’. They will remain leaky for now in my eyes, so I have to look at goals once more.

Over 2.5 Goals is available at 1.90 with Bet365 and there are worse bets you can have this weekend. Southend are a front-foot team that has momentum, and for all that they aren’t quite the same on the road, they’re facing a team that has not been reliable for clean sheets. Also, Ardley won’t necessarily want to turn York into a defend at all costs sort of team, and shall look to play on their attacking strengths to try and get them out of trouble for now.

Houston Dynamo v St. Louis City

Sunday, 1:30am

Last and by no means least I look towards Major League Soccer for my final selection of the weekend, specifically in the clash between Houston Dynamo and St. Louis City. The Dynamo come into this game fresh after not playing over the international break, whilst this weekend’s away side squandered a 2-0 half time lead away at LA Galaxy, eventually drawing 2-2.

It will certainly surprise many to see St. Louis City sitting proudly at the top of the Western Conference in what is their first-ever season as a club. The club has had momentum behind it from the very start and they continue to ride this crest of a wave, and who knows what it may bring at the end of the season. At the very least, a play-off spot is practically secure, but their targets have changed, and they want it all.

Houston are also having a very good season and finds themselves in the Western Conference play-off positions, sitting nine points behind their upcoming opponent. If we are to look more towards the form guide, then Houston are right up there at present. They are unbeaten in the five since MLS resumed following the break for the Leagues Cup, whilst only St. Louis has a stronger home record in the Western Conference after 28 overall games in the season.

My concern for St. Louis is whether they can maintain this. For all that there is no pressure on them in one sense, they’ve given themselves a bit of a problem in one sense due to their excellent form. The mentality has shifted to one where they are now the team to catch, and some teams can crumble under that weight. Also, I’m always keen potentially oppose teams towards the top of MLS when playing away from home. This is where you can find decent odds, as home advantage is vital in this part of the world. For all that St. Louis sit top, they’ve still lost half of their away games.

Also, Houston have only won twice away in MLS this season, which means they place big significance on their home record, so they’ll really target this match as one they need to be winning, even against the top team in the Western Conference at present. St. Louis have been inconsistent of late, only winning three in nine (all at home), so I’m not really sold at them.

My bet of the weekend is simply to back Houston Dynamo here, and the 1.83 on offer from Betway I suspect will shorten approaching game day. The price is good enough to back for now.

Tips

Fulham v Luton Town – Over 2.5 Goals (1.91 Bet365)

York City v Southend United – Over 2.5 Goals (1.90 Bet365)

Houston Dynamo v St. Louis City – Houston Dynamo (1.83 Betway)

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James O'Rourke

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