As the weekend unfolds, it brings with it an abundance of thrilling football from across the globe.
In Japan, we gear up for a dynamic clash between Vissel Kobe and Kawasaki Frontale, where the underdogs could upset the league leaders. Brazil offers us an intriguing match-up with Flamengo looking to close the gap on the runaway leaders against the struggling America MG. Meanwhile, in Sweden, we look forward to a goal-fest as Norrköping and Degerfors collide. And finally, in Norway, a rejuvenated Strømsgodset takes on former powerhouse Rosenborg in a must-win encounter. Read on for the expert tips that will help you navigate through this thrilling round of football.
Vissel Kobe v Kawasaki Frontale
Saturday, 11am
Saturday morning is J1 League time and we have a cracker in store this weekend when Vissel Kobe and Kawasaki Frontale go head-to-head. It isn’t the top of the table clash many would have predicted in pre-season, but I do believe league leaders Kobe could be vulnerable facing an ever-improving opponent.
Kobe have never won the top prize in Japanese football, but with 14 games remaining they sit joint-top with Yokohama F-Marinos on goal difference, but with a game in-hand. They’re unbeaten in five in all competitions, last losing a league match at the start of last month. Kawasaki themselves have won three on the spin in league & cup, and one defeat in nine overall means they’re in their best shape all season.
Kawasaki started the season poorly and have been playing catch-up ever since, and whilst a title challenge is probably a bit out of reach, three could still be a possibility given they’re just eight-points away. A 1-0, and deserving, away victory at joint-top Yokohama F-Marinos last time out could be the turning point in their season. That was comfortably their best result of the season and first over a top-five opponent, so confidence is sky-high right now.
I would still class Kawasaki as one of the top teams in the league despite their seventh position standing at present. They finished second last season and four league titles since 2017. Kobe have failed to beat a top-five opponent so far this season (D1, L3), including losing their two home losses to clubs in this bracket. It is only a matter of time before Kawasaki get back into this part of the table and I fancy them to come away from this tricky away contest with something.
A Bet365 bet-builder is called upon here and I particular like the look of Both Teams to Score and Kawasaki Double Chance at 2.10. My case for Kawasaki is based upon their win last weekend and the fact they achieved that missing some key players rate it even higher in my eyes. They’ll end the season strongly, and I’ve included BTTS in this given this is ultimately two attack-minded sides that will play to win. I don’t expect a goal-fest, but this is two evenly-matched teams based upon the Expected Goals (xG) and Expected Goals Against numbers (xGA).
Flamengo v America MG
Saturday, 8pm
I haven’t delved into Brazilian football from a betting perspective too often this season, mainly because of the rather hectic schedule. Games are a little more spaced out so teams can have a full week to prepare for matches, and that has been the case for Flamengo heading into this clash with America MG, who will be playing their tenth match in the space of roughly one match this weekend.
Saturday will be Flamengo’s ninth clash in approximately the same amount of time, but the luxury of having a full week of preparation should not be discounted here. Furthermore, they’ve been playing regularly and claiming good results in the process, unlike their bottom of the table opposition. It is seven unbeaten for Flamengo, and the two draws they earned in that time came away to Fluminense and Palmeiras, which are very tough places to go.
Whilst Flamengo do sit second in the table, they are 12 points behind runaway leaders Botafogo RJ, who recently appointed former Wolves boss Bruno Lage as their new Head Coach. The club last won the top title in 1995, so this is a big deal for them. Flamengo are more used to the top prize and won’t give up this season without a fight. Extending their unbeaten run is required, specifically with victories to close that gap potentially, so they can certainly not afford to drop points to lowly America MG.
The good thing for Flamengo is they tend to get the job done over the lesser likes in the league, at least based upon the standings. They’ve won six out of six this season in their meetings with teams positioned 14th or below, outscoring their combined opponents 16-5 in the process. They have a 5-1-1 league home record, and they’re taking on a team that struggles overall, but especially on the road.
America MG have zero away victories and just two points to their name, conceding a whopping 18 goals in that period, too. They’ve already been away to top-five clubs Botafogo RJ, Gremio and Sao Paulo and lost comfortable, whilst also losing comfortably at home to Fluminense, who sit in sixth. A strong case is made here for the home win and the away side losing, so finding a bet is the next port of call, which can be tricky when Flamengo are a short price to get the three points.
A 2.00 bet has been located thanks to Bet365 and that is the Half Time/Full Time market and we’re going to back Flamengo/Flamengo, meaning their winning at both half time and full time. After a full week to prepare, you can bet the hosts will want to start fast, especially after drawing back-to-back games. No team has been more successful in the HT/FT market than Flamengo in Serie A this season, and only top team Botafogo RJ have a stronger first half record. In comparison, America MG has by far the worst first half away record; being behind in six of their seven road clashes after 45 minutes.
Norrköping v Degerfors
Sunday, 2pm
We all love a bit of Scandinavian football and the first of two bets I like the look of in that part of the world on Sunday comes from the Swedish Allsvenskan Norrköping meet a struggle Degerfors at PlatinumCars Arena. The bookies have this as a clear and obvious home victory, and whilst a case can certainly be made, I don’t suspect this to be a completely one-sided affair.
Norrköping had their moment in the sunshine in 2015 when they claimed the league title that they had previously won in 1989 before that. They finished second and third in two of the three seasons after this, but they’ve really now bedded themselves into the next part of the table in the several years after. Finishing 12th last season was most disappointing, but it was fifth, sixth and seventh in three seasons before that, and with them currently placed sixth, it shows where they are right now.
That means they should really be more than good enough to despatch a Degerfors team that has already conceding a mammoth 40 goals this season, and only in 16 games! Bottom side Varberg are the nearest challengers to that on 29, which further demolishes their defensive reputation. Surprisingly, they don’t have the worst xGA figure in the league, and that stands at 26.62, meaning they’ve actually been unfortunate to concede the number of goals they have done. On the xG front, they are quite high up, and should have six more goals to their name. A case could be made for them being quite unfortunate one on hand.
Nevertheless, they’re the only Allsvenskan side without a clean sheet to their name, and yet BTTS has paid out 62.5% of the time in their league matches, so there is at least an entertainment value attached to them. As for Norrköping, just under 67% of their matches has also seen both teams find the net, and having only three clean sheets to their name is nothing to shout about either.
Goals looks the play here and BoyleSports have rather generously priced up Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 Goals at 2.00. This has paid out in seven of Norrköping’s last eight fixtures, and three of Degerfors last four away from home.
Strømsgodset v Rosenborg
Sunday, 6:15pm
There are a couple of standout matches in the Norwegian Eliteserien this weekend and we can certainly class Strømsgodset’s home encounter with Rosenborg as being right up there. At first glance, it might only look like a mid-table encounter but this is a winnable clash for both teams and an exciting, end-to-end clash could easily materialise. Strømsgodset have won five in seven in all competitions, whilst Rosenborg got a much-needed win over Tromsø, who are fourth, last time out.
The hosts are favourites to get the job done in this Sunday evening battle, and the recent form guide would suggest that is sensibly set by the odds compilers. Rosenborg once dominated this league on an annual basis, but they already find themselves 22 points behind league leaders Bodø-Glimt and face a battle to even make it into Europe for next season. Still, the victory last time out could serve as a turning point for them, but they’ve not won back-to-back league games since last October/November.
Rosenborg’s away form stands against them this weekend as their one of just three teams in the league yet to record an away triumph. Drawing away at Molde and also losing at bottom side Aalesund kind of proves the sort of team they are right now. Still, betting on them to win away has been a consistently losing bet, whilst Strømsgodset have four wins in six at home, including winning their last two at Marienlyst Stadion against top side Bodø-Glimt, without conceding, and emphatically defeating Sarpsborg 08 5-2.
There is next to nothing between the two teams on the xG and xGA counts, but as mentioned, the form guide has separated these two over the past month or so. Rosenborg really need to start winning games and climbing the table, and whilst there isn’t that kind of pressure and expectation on a club like Strømsgodset, they will always raise their game against the biggest club in Norway.
Bet365 have priced backing the home team on a -0.25 Asian Handicap at 2.09 and I think that has to be taken advantage of. As mentioned, Rosenborg haven’t won away, and whilst they’re good enough to improve at some point, they just aren’t trustworthy. Strømsgodset arguably aren’t so trustworthy either, which is why I have gone for them on the handicap instead of backing them to win outright.
Tips
Vissel Kobe v Kawasaki Frontale – Both Teams to Score and Kawasaki Double Chance (2.10 Bet365)
Flamengo v America MG – Flamengo/Flamengo HT/FT (2.00 Bet365)
Norrköping v Degerfors – Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 Goals (2.00 BoyleSports)
Strømsgodset v Rosenborg – Strømsgodset -0.25 (2.09 Bet365)
