Having only saw one selection fail in our attempt at victory in the acca last weekend, I’ve returned with another bet which should give us a good run for our money.
We are however adding one selection more compared to our last try, but I believe I can make a decent case for this to come at a nice little price. Who can resist a weekend acca?!
Leg 1: Kristiansund v Mjondalen
Kristiansund are always a team I like to gravitate towards in the Norwegian second-tier, but they now find themselves 12 points behind league leaders Fredrikstad, so the priority now may to ensure they at least have a play-off place to show for their efforts in their remaining ten games. They’ve lost two in three, including a rare home setback, so they’ll be eager to bounce back.
They face a Mjondalen side that have a different agenda entirely for the season, and that is simply to avoid relegation. In OBOS-Ligaen, two are relegated automatic and the third-from-bottom side enters a play-off, and Mjondalen sit precariously above these spots as things stand. They are five without victory, winning only twice in their previous ten league assignments. Whilst on one hand you could say the pressure is off them facing a promotion contender, the reality is that they need points.
Kristiansund bounced back after back-to-back losses with a fine 3-0 success over Moss, who are in a similar part of the table to Mjondalen and were on a similar level of recent form. That was away, but Kristiansund will be delighted to return home, where they have the third-best home record in the division. Mjondalen are very hit-or-miss on the road, winning four and losing six. They’ve lost their past four on their travels however, conceding 11 goals in the process.
A home win is probably on the cards, but for acca purposes, I’ll just take Kristiansund to score at least two goals. More often than not they achieve this at home, whilst Mjondalen are especially leaky defensively on the road.
Leg 2: Vasteras v Brage
Another second-tier match in Scandinavia catches my eye for the weekend acca and this comes in the Saturday contest between Vasteras and Brage. It is a two-horse race at the top of Superettan for the title, with Vasteras just two-points behind league leaders Utsikten. More important, the top two have a decent-sized gap over GAIS in third, so Vasteras have their destiny in their own control with ten matches remaining.
Brage won’t be getting involved in the promotion picture this time around, and ensuring they will at least be playing in this league next season in very much the priority. Whilst being positioned 10th in a 16-team league may look roughly around mid-table, the reality is that Brage are only two-points above the bottom-four, which is the relegation and relegation play-off positions.
Vasteras are enduring a mini-blip by their high standards after two without a win. Both were away from home, and it included a 4-0 defeat to top side Utsikten, but a return to home soil, where they’ve yet to suffer defeat all season, is exactly where they’d want to be in order to get back on track. Brage also have a strong home record, and they’d be alongside Vasteras in the table if they had anything close to a decent return on their travels. Brage have one away win all season, scoring only six goals, too.
It almost looks too good to be true to just expect a home win here, but everything is pointing towards that being the case. The hosts are third in the xG table in the league, and also possess the third-strongest xGA number. Combine this with their strong home form and Brage’s away struggles, a home triumph looks on the cards.
Leg 3: Brest v Rennes
Ligue 1 in France is now a few rounds old, and we already have a top-five encounter on the weekend fixture list in the form of Brest versus Rennes. Brest may have fallen short away at Marseille last time out, but they won their other two battles, including impressively coming from behind against Lens, second in the league last season. Rennes are unbeaten, which includes two draws, also at Lens, but more disappointing at home at newly-promoted Le Havre.
Rennes are very much an aggressive, front-foot team that will throw everything into winning the game. This can cost them defensively at times, which is why they aren’t ever much of a confident bet to keep a clean sheet. They did lose key man Jeremy Doku to Manchester City recently, but this team will continue to create chances and score goals, and they’ll travel here expecting three points.
That in turn will open the door for Brest to perhaps cause a bit of a shock here. As mentioned, they’ve already defeated Lens at Stade Francis Le Blé this season and they was always very competitive here last season. Rennes are a side I don’t tend to trust so much away from home. It is harder to play the style that they did on the road as home teams will sense a defensive vulnerability which they can expose. That is why I am backing a goals-based angle here.
Both Teams to Score will be the nominated third leg of our weekend acca, and a strong case is made for this to come through. All three Rennes matches has seen this pay out this season, and two from three for Brest, and the match where they failed to score, away at Marseille, saw them claim an xG of 1.92. Both will believe they can win, so an open game is anticipated, and this selection also paid off in both H2H renewals from last season.
Leg 4: Salzburg v Rapid Vienna
The final leg which will hopefully take us to victory on our weekend acca is an attractive-looking contest from the Austrian Bundesliga between Salzburg and Rapid Vienna. These two have been battling against each other for many, many years in the top-flight, and there is an angle here which I think gives an even bigger advantage to the hosts this weekend.
We’ll touch upon Salzburg first, who are always the first team to come to mind when thinking of this league. To say they are dominant would be something of an understatement. They’ve won the top prize across each of the last ten seasons, and 2004/05 was the last time they failed to make the top-two. Rapid Vienna have knocked on the door in that time with several runners-up medals, but they just can’t overcome the top dogs.
Salzburg have won a cool five from five to start the campaign, now under the management of former New York Red Bulls and Barnsley boss Gerhard Struber, who faces a high-tempo game on and off the ball. They put the opposition under big pressure, and they’ll take on a Rapid team that had a huge Europa Conference League clash away to Fiorentina on Thursday night. That is not ideal preparation to face the best team in the league away from home. Rapid have started the season well, but you suspect they may have to rest key players here from the start, just as they did in their last league game given their exploits over two legs against the Italians.
Even so, man-for-man, Salzburg are just simply a stronger team. Also, for what is it worth, Rapid Vienna last won away to Salzburg in August 2015, so it certainly is no happy hunting ground for them. Rapid actually have a higher xG figure compared to Salzburg this season, but they’ve had the easier opposition to start the season.
The final part of the acca is simply a Salzburg victory. Backing against them, especially at home, is never a wise thing to do if winning bets is your thing. Incredibly, they’ve not lost a home league game since December 2020.
- Kristiansund Over 1.5 Team Goals
- Vasteras ML
- Brest v Rennes Both Teams to Score
- Salzburg ML
4.75/1 (Bet365)
