Vettori vs Dolidze 2 prediction: Redemption awaits for the Caucasian

Roman Dolidze and Marvin Vettori will share the cage for the second time this Saturday in the UFC Vegas 104 main event at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Vettori left the arena with the bragging rights last time, but can he replicate that result two years later? Let’s find out in our Vettori vs Dolidze 2 prediction.

Tale of the tape 

Vettori sits eighth in the middleweight rankings, with a professional MMA record of 19 wins, seven losses (two KOs, nine subs), and one draw. In the UFC, however, his record stands at 9-5-1. 

‘The Italian Dream’ was seen as one of the biggest prospects in the UFC at one point. After a solid record of 7-2-1 in his first 10 fights, Vettori punched the ticket to challenge Israel Adesanya for the UFC middleweight strap. However, he lost that fight and since then, has struggled to maintain his form. 

Dolidze has a 8-3-0 UFC record and has picked up back-to-back wins in his last two fights after suffering consecutive losses. 

The Georgian is still working his way to his first title fight. While he lost twice in his last four fights, and one of them was against Vettori, his performance trajectory has been upward in recent fights. He beat Anthony Smith last June and three months later, he picked up a TKO win against Kevin Holland in Salt Lake City. 

Marvin Vettori vs Roman Dolidze 2 hot tip: Dolidze to win 

Bookmakers are considering Vettori the favourite to win this fight. However, it’s a big ask for the Italian to perform at his best after two years away from the Octagon. He has also recovered from a recent injury, so a big question mark hangs over his fitness ahead of this fight. 

Dolidze put up a solid performance when he fought Vettori in London. But he could not convince the judges that time. It would be difficult, however, for Vettori to maintain the same intensity after such a lengthy layoff. So, Dolidze has a very good chance of getting retribution in this fight. 

Vettori lost to Jared Cannonier after beating Dolidze and has been inactive in the UFC since then. The 31-year-old has been largely inconsistent in recent years. ‘The Caucasian’ has shown more stability lately and has seen more action inside the Octagon. So, we see Dolidze as being in a better position to win this fight. 

Marvin Vettori vs Roman Dolidze 2: Key stats 

• Vettori has a 16:55 average fight time, while Dolidze’s fights last 11:15 on average. 
• Dolidze has a two-inch reach advantage over Vettori, which will make it easier for him to control the distance. 
• Vettori lands 4.56 strikes per minute. This is significantly higher than Dolidze’s striking rate (3.16 per minute). 
• Vettori also gets the edge in grappling. His takedown average per 15 minutes is 1.66, whereas it is 1.33 for Dolidze. Vettori (45%) also leads Dolidze (42%) in takedown accuracy.

Fight odds and win probability 

Here are the current Marvin Vettori vs Roman Dolidze 2 odds:

Marvin Vettori: 8/13 (1.62) – Implied probability 61.9%

Roman Dolidze: 5/4 (2.25) – Implied probability 44.4%

*Marvin Vettori vs Roman Dolidze 2 betting odds from Boylesports, subject to change.

Keys to victory 

Vettori has not been at his best in his recent fights and the injury layoff could hinder his chances further in this fight. That said, it would not be wise to rule out the Italian’s chance of winning this fight altogether. Let’s discuss the keys to victory for both fighters in this battle: 

Marvin Vettori – capitalise on work rate

Vettori is a work horse who can keep his opponents under relentless pressure with his incredible work rate. He needs to maintain the tempo from start to finish. Vettori is an excellent striker and also has great defensive abilities. He can sway the judges in his favour if he maintains the combination throughout, just as he did in his previous fight.

Roman Dolidze – stay calm and be patient

Dolidze has the power to win the fight in an instant. However, he needs to stay calm in this fight. Vettori’s gas tank must have taken a hit after a two-year hiatus. So, he should look to survive the early stages. Once Vettori becomes fatigued, he should switch gears and try to finish the fight with a decisive blow. He needs to look for openings continuously and make use of the best chances. 

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