UFC 311: Makhachev vs Tsarukyan 2 prediction | Six years in the making, but same result

The first UFC pay-per-view event of the year will feature renewed hostilities between Islam Makhachev and Arman Tsarukyan. Saturday night local time the pair will share the Octagon at the Intuit Dome in Los Angeles, California. Can Makhachev grab another victory over the opponent he defeated five years ago? Read on for our Makhachev vs Tsarukyan 2 prediction.

Tale of the tape

Makhachev has been on a 14-fight winning streak as he prepares to enter the arena for the 28th time in his career. Adriano Martins knocked the Dagestani fighter out in 2015. Since then, Makhachev has been flawless and also defeated Tsarukyan in 2019. He rose to become the UFC lightweight champion in 2022

Tsarukyan has come a long way since losing his debut UFC fight to Makhachev. He has fought 25 times in his career and lost just three times. 

Since the initial Makhachev battle, the Armenian has, nevertheless, won nine of the 10 contests he contested. Following his April 2024 beating of Charles Oliveira, he has his first chance for divisional UFC title glory.

Islam Makhachev vs Arman Tsarukyan 2 hot tip: Makhachev to win via decision

Makhachev and Tsarukyan were not household names when their paths first crossed. They will enjoy a bigger spotlight this time around, but the fight should proceed the same way. 

Makhachev got hold of the UFC lightweight belt when he beat Oliveira in Dubai to claim the vacant strap. He has defended the title three times since then. The two-time champion beat Alexander Volkanovski twice and stopped Dustin Poirier last June.

Tsarukyan has hardly made a mistake thus far in his ascent of the UFC ladder. So far he has received two Fight of Night and three Performance of the Night bonuses.

Tsarukyan has worked on his shortcomings since losing to Makachev. That said, he should still find it difficult to convince the judges against Makhachev. It should be another feisty affair, but Makhachev should do enough to defend his belt once again.

Islam Makhachev vs Arman Tsarukyan 2: key stats 

• With 819 days on top of the in the 155 pound division, Machakev has spent the second longest amount of time as the undisputed lightweight champion.
• Makhachev, 33, is five years older than Tsarukyan. Their Octagon experience also shows a significant difference; Makhachev made his UFC debut in May 2015 while Tsarukyan joined the company almost four years later.
• Makhachev has won 46% of his fights via submission, on the other hand, Tsarukyan has been more comfortable knocking out his opponents. KOs helped him win 41% of his contests.

Fight odds and win probability 

Here are the current Islam Makhachev vs Arman Tsarukyan 2 odds:

Islam Makhachev: 2/7 (1.29) – Implied probability 77.76%

Arman Tsarukyan: 3/1 (4.00) – Implied probability 25%

*Islam Makhachev vs Arman Tsarukyan 2 betting odds from Boylesports, subject to change.

Keys to victory

The odds are largely in favour of a Makhachev win. But we don’t think it will be a walk in the park for the defending champion. Tsarukyan produced an excellent display the last time they fought, and he is expected to put up a fight again. 

Islam Makhachev: control and patience

Makhachev has an deep gas tank and knows how to lure opponents into danger. Persistent grappling and clinching could wear Tsarukyan down, allowing him to capitalise on fatigue in later rounds.

Rooted in Dagestani wrestling and Sambo, Makhachev's grappling lineage is maybe the greatest in mixed martial arts. Whether by securing takedowns or dominating in scrambles, he has regularly shown the ability to decide where the fight takes place.

Makhachev's winning plan will focus on controlling the fight by wrestling, keeping a regulated tempo, and minimising dangerous exchanges. He can frustrate Tsarukyan by throwing off his flow, either winning on points or grabbing a late submission chance.

Arman Tsarukyan: relentless attack and adaptability

With a mix of rapid combos, strong defence, and mid-fight adaptability, Tsarukyan's striking has been his strongest suit. Against Makhachev, this might be a deciding element.

Tsarukyan must mix his improved punching, wrestling, and cardio into a coherent plan if he wants to win. He could manage the pace by negating Makhachev's grapple dominance and control with his quickness, adaptability, and durability.

Tsarukyan has a clear road to either a decision victory or a late stoppage if he can upset Makhachev's rhythm, keep distance when necessary, and seize on transitions. The challenger is ready to test Makhachev in ways few others have with his development as a fighter and relentless pace.

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