The Saint Greg Browning’s Tips: Unders is best for Brest

NOT much on today but I feel the French play-off is worth getting involved in and for the first time I think in two seasons (maybe longer) I’m posting unders for goals (last time was when Blackpool’s pitch had no grass).

Le Havre v Brest (7.45pm)

The hosts are due us all a turn after downing everyone’s 80-1 over 2.5 goals 10fold on Friday night (2-0 after 10 mins and that’s how it stayed). Mr F and I are on the same page here and both agree this looks like it could be a tight affair.

Le Havre finished the season like title winners, collecting 19 points from 21 in their last seven games to seal their play-off spot. That was built on a strong defensive foundation having gone 495 minutes since they last conceded a goal (five and half games ago).

Like a lot of French teams most of their points have been collected at home and impressively they only lost one of their 19 home games this season (best in the league) and only Reims conceded fewer goals at home (12 goals in 19 matches – 50 per cent clean sheets).

The visitors also ended the season well and haven’t been shy in seeing a goal in their away matches, however, they travel to play against the second best defence in the league and against a side who don’t conceded many at home and have also scored fewer goals than any side in the top eight.

Add to the mix that last 9 games between the sides have all finished under 2.5 goals (just nine goals scored in those games) and if you go back further just three of the last 22 games have goals over 2.5 goals, there’s a fair case to be made given the magnitude of this match we could expect to see another tight game between these two.

• Back under 2.5 match goals (3-4, Marathonbet) (NAP)
• Back under 1.5 match goals (113-50, Marathonbet)

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