Tennis Tips: Day 3 at Wimbledon

IT was three winners from three yesterday and there's plenty of possible bets around on day three.

Ruben Bemelmans, Radu Albot, Jared Donaldson, Sergiy Stakhovsky and Andreas Seppi are all possible underdogs with chances, while Philipp Kohlschreiber and Adrian Mannarino look decent favourites.

John Isner vs Ruben Bemelmans

At these prices I’m happy to take another chance on Bemelmans, with Isner’s form and stats at Wimbledon not standing up to a great deal of scrutiny.

The big man is only 11-9 at Wimbledon, where the low-bouncing grass doesn’t suit his game (apart from his serve) and his movement generally gets exposed on this surface.

Isner has only broken serve 6.6% of the time in those 20 main draw matches at Wimbledon, which is only a tiny amount more than Ivo Karlovic and last year Isner was beaten as a 1.24 chance by Dudi Sela.

That’s pretty much the same price Isner is for this match and with Bemelmans’ confidence boosted by beating another big-serving American in the last round the Belgian has a decent chance here.

He broke Johnson six times in that round one match and while I wouldn’t expect Bemelmans to break Isner that often (Isner holds 94.4% of the time at Wimbledon) once or twice may well be enough to win the match.

Indeed, if we compare the service hold/break numbers of both players at Wimbledon there’s only 2% in it, while Isner has also lost five of his last eight matches against lefties on all surfaces and he’s 6-11 against them at majors (5-9 in completed matches).

He’s played at least two tie breaks in 11 of those 14 completed matches against lefties at majors and for me either the +4.5 games at 1.84 or the outright win for Bemelmans at 4.10 look the bets.

Another big server, Ivo Karlovic, is in action on Wednesday too and surely tie breaks are virtually guaranteed when he faces Jan-Lennard Struff, who breaks only 8.1% of the time in his last 10 on grass and 11.3% of the time in his Wimbledon career.

The fact that over 1.5 tie breaks is a 1.45 chance tells you everything about this match and with Struff 5-13 in breakers on grass at main level the 3.4 about Karlovic 7-6 in the opener isn’t a bad option.

Philipp Kohlschreiber vs Gilles Muller

I’m willing to take this 2018 version of Muller on with Kohlschreiber in this one, with the German an odds-against 2.14 shot to win the match minus 3.5 games on the handicap.

Muller’s elbow injury has had a major impact on his game and his results this season show that, with a 7-15 win/loss mark in 2018 and only one win over a top-50 opponent since last August.

He struggled again in round one here, with a laboured five set win over Michael Mmoh, and while Kohlschreiber hasn’t been in the best of form himself in this grass swing I still fancy he’ll beat this current Muller.

Kohli has had a decent record against big servers over the years, taking the ball nice and early on return and rushing the big men into errors, and he has won all three priors against Muller, but two of them were many years ago.

The German has won six of his last 11 against the big servers on my database, including wins over Marin Cilic (twice), Muller, Isner, and Karlovic (twice) and he has a fine record against left-handers too.

If we exclude Rafael Nadal, Kohlschreiber has won 16 of his last 19 against lefties and now that he has a match under his belt at Wimbledon again he really should be wining this one.

Kohli’s been unlucky with draws here in recent years, facing Cilic first up last year, Djokovic in round one in 2015, a retirement in 2013, all after making the last eight in 2012.

Muller’s break of serve percentage at Wimbledon is just 8.9% and I’m happy to take Kohli on the handicap here.

If Sergiy Stakhovsky hadn’t played a five setter in the previous round I may well have been tempted to take him to shock Sam Querrey, with the Ukrainian’s awkward style likely to cause problems for the rather one-dimensional American.

Stakho beat Querrey the last time they met and he’s another one of those players that raises his game for Grand Slams, but he’ll need to be at his best and that five setter puts me off a bit.

Jared Donaldson has started his Wimbledon career well, with three wins from four now in the main draw and while he’s still rather inexperienced on grass (20 career matches at all levels) it’s still more than twice the amount that Stefanos Tsitsipas has played.

Both men like to play aggressively, which should see them go well on grass as their careers progress, but neither of them break much at main level on this surface and I can see this one going long.

Tsitsipas hasn’t shown a huge amount on grass yet and Donaldson was the more impressive of the two in round one and he did beat Tsitsipas in Chengdu in their only career meeting, so a Donaldson win here wouldn’t be the biggest of shocks.

Andreas Seppi has a weak record against big servers and he was beaten in straight sets by Kevin Andersonhere a year ago, but Anderson hasn’t been in great form of late and I’m not sure he should be shorter now than he was 12 months ago.

Seppi’s record at Wimbledon is good, with a very solid 105.0 hold/break total in his career here (which is better than Anderson’s 101.3) and if he serves as well as he did in round one he’s a danger to most in this draw.

His record of losing 11 of his last 13 against the big servers on my list is off-putting, but if he can avoid tie breaks he has a shot here.

The Italian’s issue (or one of them) against big servers is clear from the stat that he’s lost 22 of the 26 tie breaks he’s faced versus the big servers on my list, but I’d still expect him to take a set in this one.

Aljaz Bedene vs Radu Albot

I can’t be having Bedene as a 1.32 chance on grass to beat most players and we saw in the last round here at Wimbledon that Albot is no pushover and loves a long match at a major.

We backed the over 3.5 sets in his clash with Pablo Carreno Busta in round one and that was a comfortable winner as once again Albot went the distance at a Grand Slam.

He’s now gone to either four or five sets 15 times in 17 Grand Slam matches and he’s unlikely to be worried about facing Bedene, who’s never been a natural grass courter by any means.

The Slovenian just about got the better of Cam Norrie, whose limitations on this surface are clear, and while his serve is more of a weapon than Albot’s I’d question whether Bedene has the same tenacity as the Moldovan, who loves a scrap at a major.

As far as stats are concerned Albot’s seven career matches at main level on grass and Bedene’s last 10 are just 1% different and I like the over games here.

Finally, I'd expect Adrian Mannarino to be too good on grass for Ryan Harrison, whose results on this surface have been poor for some time, and the -1.5 sets on the Frenchman is an option as well.

Best Bets

• 1.5 points win Bemelmans +4.5 games to beat Isner (1.97, Unibet)
• 1 point win Kohlschreiber -3.5 games to beat Muller (2.14, Unibet)
• 1 point win over 35.5 games in Bedene v Albot (1.78, Unibet)

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