THE ATP World Tour moves seamlessly on from Madrid to Rome and the second of the back-to-back Masters 1000 tournaments, the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, look at today's first-round matches.
The historic Foro Italico is the venue for this red-dirt event which will be played in slower conditions than we witnessed last week at altitude in Madrid and although the weather is set fair for the opening days we could have many delays later in the week when rain is forecast.
Today's play in Rome features the likes of Kei Nishikori, Milos Raonic and Ernests Gulbis on show and I fancy a couple of these to struggle with Nishikori looking much too short at 1.34 to beat home favourite Paulo Lorenzi.
The Rome-born 31-year-old is no mug in conditions he knows well and Kei has never won a match at this particular tournament so there is a clear advantage straight away for Lorenzi.
Paulo is hardly the most consistent of sorts but has beaten Tommy Robredo, Pablo Andujar and Benoit Paire on the dirt this year and he's performed well in front of his home fans before, which isn't something you can say about a few Italians here, mentioning no names (Fabio Fognini).
Lorenzi has beaten Thomaz Bellucci and Nikolay Davydenko here in the last two years and he took a set from Rafa Nadal in 2011 so he clearly relishes the challenge of playing at home.
Nishikori is too short after beating Roger Federer last week and the Japanese star can get bogged down on clay if he's not able to hit winners and prefers players coming at him as Federer does rather than the more patient approach of someone like Lorenzi.
Kei's results on European clay have been poor, with Madrid last week being his best finish and his loss to Andujar in the last eight was another example of his tendency to struggle on the clay against lesser players.
The 4.5 game start given to Lorenzi today looks well worth taking and I'll be backing that at a price of around 1.8 when this match takes place in the cool evening conditions at 8pm UK time.
Elsewhere, Gulbis takes a 4-0 and 8-0 in sets record into his match with Jarkko Nieminen and I'm not sure I'd like to be backing odds-on about Jerzy Janowicz today against the capable Santiago Giraldo who's finding some form after injury.
The all-Italian clash between Fognini and Seppi this afternoon has the look of a long affair about it as their last three clashes have all gone to a decider and I'd probably side with Seppi today.
Fognini has never done well here and Seppi is defending quarter-final points from 12 months ago, plus Fogna will be edgy anyway after a monumental choke against Mikhail Youzhny last time out.
Recommended Bet
Back Lorenzi +4.5 games to beat Nishikori at 1.8
Milesey (Betfair)
Resident football tipster at Scotland's most read newspaper, the Daily Record, for over 20 years and proud host of one the best betting communities on the web with daily betting tips.
Seppi leads 5-3 on the head to heads vs Fognini at one point he was 5-0 up Fognini has won the last 3 times they’ve meet & on them statistics I’m happy to back Fabio
Fabio Fognini to Beat Andreas Seppi @ 1.72
Jerzy Janowicz to Beat Santiago Giraldo @ 1.66
Venus Williams to Beat Laura Robson @ 1.72
the treble @ 4.97
& small stakes on
Laura Robson to win 1st set & lose the match @ 6’s
Fognini to beat Seppi 2-1 @ 3.75
Janowicz to win 1st set 6-4 @ 5.50
@ 123/1
With just two weeks to go until the world’s stars descend on Paris for the French Open, the leading ladies in the game head to the clay of Rome hoping to continue their preparations with triumph in the Eternal City.
Russian ace Maria Sharapova heads to the Italian capital looking to make it a hat-trick of tournament wins, but while she sits out the first round having been handed a bye, there is plenty of action elsewhere in the draw.
The likes of Victoria Azarenka, Na Li and Angelique Kerber will all await the conclusion of the first round to find out who they will face to begin their tournament, but we take a closer look at some potential upsets on the first two days of play.
Perhaps the pick of the round is the clash between Venus Williams and British hopeful Laura Robson. If further spice were needed for this match, then it comes in the form of the winner facing Serena Williams. With a potential meeting between the Williams-sisters arriving so early, it undoubtedly opens up the draw.
Robson has yet to face the elder of the Williams sisters in her career to date, but the 19-year-old will be buoyed by her win over Agnieszka Radwanska in Madrid, which will certainly give her confidence of upsetting the odds.
Elsewhere, home favourite Roberta Vinci will receive a great atmosphere in front of a partisan crowd but may find life difficult when she takes on Elena Vesnina. The pair have met five times, with the Russian winning four including their clash at the Australian Open earlier this year.
Both players have had a solid year thus far, sharing a title apiece, but history favours Vesnina and she will step into the lion’s den hoping to silence the Roman faithful.
Another Italian hoping to impress on her homeland will be Flavia Pennetta, who was handed a wildcard to take part having struggled through the year. She faces American world number 17 Sloane Stephens in the first round, and despite having beaten her at the same venue in the round of 32 last year, she may have her hands full.
Similarly, fellow Italian wildcard entrant Nastassja Burnett will be hoping to please the crowd when she faces Alize Cornet. The Frenchwoman isn’t having a particularly impressive year to date, with a record of 12-10, and could have an uncomfortable afternoon against a youngster desperate to impress.
The first round draw is scattered with top seeds, including Madrid semi-finalist Ana Ivanovic who should have few problems in dispatching Urszula Radwanska. Meanwhile Carolina Wozniacki takes on Bojana Jovanovski and two-time champion Jelena Jankovic should overcome Tsvetana Pironkova.
However, eleventh seed Nadia Petrova might find life a little more testing, when she takes on one of the few Spaniards in the draw in Carla Suarez Navarro. If there is to be an early exit for a seeded player, this match may well provide the shock of the round considering the Russian’s poor form this year.
It promises to be an intriguing week of tennis in Rome, and as the world’s best enter the fray in the second round there is undoubtedly plenty to look forward to.
Recommended Bets
Back Burnett to beat Cornet @ 2.66
Back Navarro to beat Petrova @ 1.96
Back Stephens to beat Pennetta @ 2.52
Back Robson to beat V. Williams @ 2.46
Back Vesnina to beat Vinci @ 3.00
Milesey
Burnett N. (Ita) 2-0 Cornet A. (Fra)
Williams V. (Usa) 0-2 Robson L. (Gbr)
Milesey
it’s going to be great tournament…