I'VE already posted my scene-setter and tactical breakdown of what we can expect at #SuperbowlLV, now it's time for the serious business of Player Props and Game Props.
I've put my neck on the on line andsaid that IF I were betting the main lines I'd be taking Chiefs -3, and Over the 56 but you really should be aiming to profit from the countless number of prop bets available and here's my take.
Player props
The lines are tough here, obviously there's a lot of evidence out there for the bookies to make their lines so it's tough to find much value on them.
I think there's value in Watkins topping his line, set around 36 yards but that's a bit of a leap of faith assuming he'll have the same role as earlier in the year.
Hill and Kelce lines have risen all week since they were released and while they might both hit 100 yards, lines of 92.5 and 97.5 aren't for me. The muddle of the Chief backfield and the Bucs rush defense has both RBs lines low, I'm sure one will go over rushing and/or receiving lines, but I couldn't say which, I'd think Clyde but again it's not a bet.
The Bucs lines aren't a lot easier to pick. I don't mind Brate to go over his line, set at 28.5, but I think it's more sensible to attack his receptions Over 2.5 as he gets redzone work, Gronk might step up in the big game as he tends to do, but the evidence suggests he's the second option at the position and he shouldn't be 1 yard higher than Brate.
I don't want any part of Evans, Godwin, Brown, they spread the ball around and it's tough to pick who gets the yards in any game. I'd lean under on Evans (63.5) though.
Miller is always a teaser, if he gets a catch it's probably for about 25 yards, so over 14.5 for him is tempting. If you think Ronald Jones gets a catch you can take o2.5 yards on him at a better price than o0.5 receptions. Fournette lined at 3.5 receptions seems sensible, he's gone over that in all 3 playoff games.
Game props
This is where you probably want to attack this game, there's ~700 markets available at certain places, as well as the many hundreds of Request-a-bets and the likes.
First quarter under 10 points – Brady led teams have 3 points in first quarters in the big game, they lost that quarter 9-3, it's the one Superbowl he's been involved in which has landed over 10 points. Whether that's Brady or the Pats, it's significant.
The Chiefs last year finished the first quarter at 7-3. You can take under 10.5 points at 8/11 on Skybet, or under 10 at Evens in most other places.
Longest field goal under 47.5 – I like this one as well, the Bucs have only attempted two over 50 yards this year, Succop is 1-2 from them.
Butker has a huge leg, but Superbowls aren't won with field goals, and last year his long was under 40 yards. Available on Bet365 at 5/6
Total penalties under 10.5 – This is something that's been highlighted and the line has come down from last year, but it's the showcase event for the NFL and they don't want it ruined by over-zealous refereeing so they let things go.
The playoff games haven't seen more than 9 accepted penalties, last year there were 10 in the Superbowl. I still like the under here though, at 5/7 on William Hill.
Total punts under 6.5 – Two ways to target the punt market here, either both teams combined, or aim for Tommy Townsend to go under his 2.5 line.
The Chiefs don't punt. You don't win games against the Chiefs by giving them the ball back and both head coaches are offensive-minded, you'll probably see a few 4th down attempts (actually not a bad bet for attempts/converted 4th down tries)
Patrick Mahomes to throw a TD pass in the 2nd quarter – A bit of a weird one here, but one I like at 4/6 on Paddy Power. As above Superbowls tend to start slow, but we know that Mahomes can score 4 TDs in a quarter when he fancies it.
The two playoff games this year he's thrown a 2nd quarter score, he did in the Superbowl last year as well. Not the best price, but one of my favourite spot-bets this year.
Most rushing yards – Buccaneers – This is one which was mis-priced (in my opinion) earlier in the week where William Hill had the Bucs +10.5 yards – I got on then, and it's now Scratch, so a straight heads up on most rushing yards.
The Chiefs like to throw, and the Bucs are a pass-funnel defense, while the Bucs will run for the first 2 downs with playoff Lenny against a badly ranked run defense. The one worry would be if the game gets away from the Bucs, but I still like it even straight up at 10/11 on William Hill now Bucs-6.5 on there at 10/11 so 5/6 on 365 the preferred bet.
If you're betting in-play and it starts slow as many Superbowls have try and see if there's any value on the over after the first quarter. If there's fewer than 10 points in the first and you can get over 50 then it's probably worth a bet.
What am I on?
- First quarter under 10 points – 1/1 (Bet365, William Hill, Redzone)
- Longest field goal u47.5 yards – 5/6 (Bet365)
- Patrick Mahomes to throw a 2nd qtr TD – 4/6 (Paddy Power)
- Most rush yards – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 5/6 (Bet365)
- Kelce over 100 yards and a TD – 5/2 (Skybet)
Good luck with whatever you're on, well done if you stay awake. Should be a belter.
Thanks for reading and interacting all season. It's been fun.
Adam (@TouchdownTips on twitter)
