WHEN the snooker world gathers at The Crucible Theatre for the Betfair World Championship on Saturday there will be one particularly notable absentee.
For the first time in over a quarter of a century, the event will take place without the most successful player in the sport’s history. The now retired seven-times champion Stephen Hendry will be sorely missed but at least snooker fans can count their blessings in one other respect.
Shortly after winning his fourth world title 12 months ago, snooker’s star attraction Ronnie O’Sullivan withdrew from all of this season’s events.
Thankfully the Rocket has changed his mind and will defend the title but, without any competitive snooker under his belt, his form and wellbeing is anyone’s guess.
Given that the other two most successful players of recent times, John Higgins and Mark Williams, both appear to be in decline, this year’s renewal has a transformative feel about it, with a new generation ready to assume dominance.
Choosing a leader from this emerging generation, however, is far from straightforward. Indeed, the World Championship betting has never been so open, reflecting the ever-changing order at the top of the world rankings.
Judd Trump and current incumbent Mark Selby have spent this season swapping top dog status while the consistently impressive Neil Robertson went close to usurping them both with victory in the latest tournament, the China Open. The gap between that trio and the rest of the top-10 is miniscule.
Many people, of course, will still consider Ronnie as the man to beat. It is certainly fair to say nobody has produced a better performance since his dominant Crucible campaign last year.
Coming out of retirement and recapturing your best is never easy but if there’s one player capable of doing so, O’Sullivan is the man. Easily the most natural player of his generation, if not ever, Ronnie often gave the impression the only thing holding him back was a lack of commitment.
Surely he wouldn’t be bothering with this comeback if he wasn’t committed to it and, given his talent, he shouldn’t need that much practice to find his range again. He starts against Scot Marcus Campbell who qualified on Sunday night.
If he doesn’t, much public and media focus will shift to his assumed successor Trump but smart punters should have learned by now to be wary of the hype machine otherwise known as the “Juddernaut”.
In the two years since Trump lost a classic world final to Higgins he hasn’t notably improved. So far in 2013 he hasn’t reached a single final and has been knocked out by non-seeded players in four of the last seven big events.
While Judd seems perennially over-rated and under-priced, the exact opposite sentiments can be applied to Mark “The Pistol” Allen. The pair fought out a thrilling 2011 UK Championship final, won 10-8 by Trump, but their careers have moved in opposite directions since.
A prolific breakbuilder since his teenage years, Allen has improved markedly this term and the fact he’s only landed one recent ranking event owes plenty to misfortune.
When winning the World Open, nobody managed to stay within two frames of Allen and some of his Championship League form has been equally explosive. The first-round draw handed Allen a meeting with Mark King.
Elsewhere, he has repeatedly lost classic high-class matches to the likes of Robertson and Ding Junhui. Such unlucky runs are an inevitable hazard of events with short match formats but form can always be expected to stand up over the marathon matches at the World Championship.
One of the keys to successful betting at The Crucible is identifying which players thrive over longer matches in the pressure cooker atmosphere. Allen ticks both boxes, reaching the quarter-finals three times from six previous attempts while still learning the game.
Most memorably in 2009, he stunned O’Sullivan before falling prey to Higgins’ superior tactical prowess in the semis. Currently available to back at 16.0, Allen is trading around double the odds of Trump, despite a superior all-round game and much better recent form.
This could be a rare opportunity to beat the market by backing a vast improver, still under the radar of most pundits and punters.
Milesey (Betfair)
First-round draw
Judd Trump v Dominic Dale
Mark Williams v Michael White
John Higgins v Mark Davis
Barry Hawkins v Jack Lisowski
Stuart Bingham v Sam Baird
Matthew Stevens v Marco Fu
Ali Carter v Ben Woollaston
Neil Robertson v Robert Milkins
Mark Selby v Matthew Selt
Ricky Walden v Michael Holt
Ronnie O’Sullivan v Marcus Campbell
Shaun Murphy v Martin Gould
Ding Junhui v Alan McManus
Stephen Maguire v Dechawat Poomjaeng
Graeme Dott v Peter Ebdon
Mark Allen v Mark King
Resident football tipster at Scotland's most read newspaper, the Daily Record, for over 20 years and proud host of one the best betting communities on the web with daily betting tips.
Betting on snooker is far from easy, I think it will b either Selby or Robertson, thev bn the 2 most consistent performers this season. Selby has already 1 the UK & the masters this season & needs the World 2 complete the triple crown, only 7 players have done this b4 in the same season. Robertson beat Selby in the recent china open final bt reckon selby will beat Robbo in the semis. The top half of the draw is harder 2 predict with Ronnie, Higgins, Trump & Murphy bt dnt think any of them will win tho Murphy cld get 2 the final, he’s capable of beatin out of form Trump &Higgins & also a lack of match sharpness Ronnie, so 4 me it’s a Selby v Murphy final tho if any1 will beat Selby or Robbo it will b Allen.
Higgins or the rocket for me although Graeme dott is my outsider
the rocket 4 me too he,s the master ronnie
IT HAS TO BE NEIL ROBERTSONS YEAR AGAIN!!! CMON THE THUNDER FROM DOWN UNDER!!
Just cant see ronnie being up too scratch after such a long absence, definatly cant see him winning the tournament and think i will have a piece of marcus campbell too beat him in the opener at 5/1.
Joebin, I’d expect Ronnie to get past Campbell although I’d love to see a shock. Used to watch him practise hard at Clydebank’s Lucky Break club before he joined the pro circuit. I don’t think Ronnie would be playing if he wasn’t ready but I’d like to see how he performs before even thinking about him as a title contender.
Yeah i agree that Ronnie should get past campbell pretty comfortably, i just think there’s plenty of value in 5/1 on campbell, worth a little nibble.
BETVICTOR’S 2013 WORLD SNOOKER CHAMPIONSHIP MONEY BACK PROMOTIONIf Ronnie O’Sullivan wins the World Snooker Championship 2013, BetVictor will refund all losing pre-event Tournament Outright Winner bets up to £50 per person/household!
We can back a handful of snooker players to give us a decent chance of making some money.
BET £20 ON MARK SELBY, WIN £150.00
Mark Selby has already won the Masters and UK Championships this season, showing that the can peak at the big events, but more importantly has the temperament to do what it takes at the Crucible.
BET £10 ON ALI CARTER, WIN £290.00
Ali Carter has a particularly impressive record at the Crucible and makes plenty of each way appeal at 28/1. Carter has reached two finals and a semi final in the last five years and has been in decent form in the 2012/13 season, winning the German Masters and making the semis of the UK Championship.
BET £20 ON JOHN HIGGINS, WIN £180.00
With an outstanding record of three world titles in the last six years, it’s something of a surprise that Higgins is available at 11/1 with Coral. The 37-year-old Scot has seen off Selby, Trump and Shaun Murphy in Crucible finals to add to his earlier success in 1998. He has a ranking title to his name this season, having beaten Trump in the final of the Shanghai Masters.
If Ronnie O’Sullivan wins again, we will get our money back!
If any of the other players win the tournament, we will lose £50. However, we have three good players against the field with this example and also insurance with the Rocket cash back.
Naturally, you can change the staking plan to reflect the players that you feel can win the World Championship and also win you some money or get your money back!
BETVICTOR’S – 2013 World Championships – Outright odds
•Ronnie O’Sullivan 7.00
•Neil Robertson 7.00
•Mark Selby 7.50
•Judd Trump 8.00
•John Higgins 9.00
•Ding Junhui 11.00
•Mark Allen 12.00
•Shaun Murphy 15.00
•Stephen Maguire 17.00
•Stuart Bingham 26.00
•Ali Carter 29.00
The big talking point ahead of this year’s World Championship concerns whether the defending champion can pull off a successful comeback having missed the entire season. Some fear Ronnie O’Sullivan will struggle, but i disagree and think going in fresh could even improve his chances…
Throughout his 20 year career, I’ve rarely backed or argued the case for Ronnie O’Sullivan. That wasn’t due to a lack of respect for his ability, rather that his popularity always ensured short-priced favouritism at the false expense of other candidates. John Higgins, for instance, has won as many world titles and the last two Crucible encounters between them, yet was always the bigger price. Plus of course, he has never been reliable. Taking short odds about a player that could quite possibly lose interest halfway through a match, or even walk off, is never going to be a shrewd betting plan.
This year’s Betfair World Championship will therefore be a new experience. For once, I reckon layers have erred too far on the side of caution and the trading value lies in backing the Rocket at 7.2 before he hits a ball. Whether he ultimately wins or not, and there are others with similarly strong claims, these odds could look massive in a week or so.
As the betting illustrates, this is the most wide-open World Championship in living memory. That doesn’t, however, mean it will look the same way by the latter stages. Big-names will be eliminated by then and the chances are one or two players will have shone, sparking a betting bandwagon. Every year somebody catches punters’ imagination early on. Ronnie has often been that man, including 12 months ago when pre-tournament odds of 10.0 had collapsed to heavy odds-on by the semi-finals.
An ideal draw suggests we could see a repeat. First up he faces journeyman Marcus Campbell, against whom Ronnie has won all four previous encounters. Next he’ll probably face the man he beat in last year’s final, Ali Carter. A difficult match in theory, apart from the fact their head-to-head record reads 14-1 to Ronnie. These are perfect opportunities to impress and build a good trading position ahead of tougher opponents. If he faces Higgins in the quarter-finals, laying back might become an option but there’s a decent chance his old rival will be out by then.
Now, it would be wrong to ignore the legitimate doubts over the fact he hasn’t played competitively since last summer or that his fragile temperament might crack. The latter point is always a risk with backing Ronnie but regarding the first, I’m really not deterred. A player with Ronnie’s extreme talent should be able to find his rhythm quickly and if he’s been practising as reported, his game may very well be in cracking shape. There is no good reason to disbelieve Peter Ebdon’s glowing report of their recent practice session.
Before overstating the scale of Ronnie’s task, lets remember what happened last year. During that season, he’d been out of form, struggling to obtain results in ever more frequent tournaments that he obviously wasn’t bothered about. That indifference nearly caught him out under the new rankings system, leaving him on the verge of losing his top-16 place and automatic qualification for the World Championship. Ronnie needed to progress in the German Masters to save his place, so he stepped up and won it in style, then produced his best ever performance to win a fourth world title. In short, he was bothered about two tournaments all year and won them both.
His snooker at Sheffield was close to perfect. More disciplined, mature and business-like than ever before. It may just turn out that an older, wiser O’Sullivan finds this kind of light schedule works, allowing him to stay motivated for the big events. From next season, so long as he stays in the top-128, only a minimal advantage will be gained from retaining a higher ranking, meaning he can afford to dodge PTCs and inconvenient overseas trips. This week Ronnie has spoken of his desire to win this tournament in his forties. Given that he’s only 37, that doesn’t sound like a player who is only half-hearted about this comeback.
Recommended Bet:
Back Ronnie O’Sullivan @ 7.2 to win the Betfair World Championship
Milesey
( BETFAIR )