In football betting, a “shot on target” typically refers to any shot directed towards the goal that would have gone in had it not been saved by the goalkeeper or blocked by the last defender.
This betting market involves predicting the total number of shots on target during a match by a team or individual player, often including shots that were saved or blocked but were otherwise on target.
Our shots on target betting picks
Brentford vs Nottingham Forest
Brentford host Nottingham Forest in what promises to be an entertaining, goal-filled affair at the Gtech Community Stadium. Both teams are in solid form, and the game offers a standout betting angle focusing on Forest’s in-form centre-back, Murillo, who continues to deliver value for punters.
Murillo has become a consistent performer when it comes to shots on goal, cashing our bets for the third consecutive weekend with another attempt against Aston Villa. Remarkably, he’s now registered a shot in each of his last ten matches, totalling 14 attempts during this run. Over the season, Murillo has managed a shot in 60% of his games, equating to implied odds of 1.67. However, Sky Bet is offering market-leading odds of 1.83 for him to have a shot this weekend, providing excellent value compared to other bookmakers like Bet365.
Brentford have been outstanding at home, with an unbeaten record of W7-D1-L0. Their matches have been goal-heavy, with both teams scoring in all eight of their home fixtures and over 2.5 goals landing in seven. A staggering 40 goals have been scored across those eight games, averaging five goals per match.
Nottingham Forest have been one of the Premier League’s surprise packages this season, with a record of W4-D2-L2 on the road. Forest rank fourth in the league for xPTS on the road, showing their ability to perform away from home and potentially challenge Brentford’s perfect record at the Gtech.
Murillo’s offensive contributions offer multiple betting angles. He’s not just a threat from set pieces—his ability to step up and take free kicks or drive out of defence to create shooting opportunities adds to his appeal. With Brentford conceding a high number of shots at home and Murillo’s consistent form, the odds of 1.83 for him to register a shot are generous. If his streak continues, these odds won’t be available for long, making now the ideal time to take advantage of this market.
- Best Bet: Murillo over 0.5 shots at 1.83 with Skybet
Manchester United vs Bournemouth
Manchester United's struggles continue under their new manager, despite a narrow win over a poor Man City side last weekend. This came after back-to-back defeats—a 3-2 loss at home to Nottingham Forest and a 2-0 defeat to Arsenal. Both Forest and Arsenal exposed United’s defensive vulnerabilities at set pieces, and Bournemouth will look to exploit this weakness as well.
United have the third-highest xGA from set pieces in the Premier League this season, conceding eight goals from dead-ball situations—second-most in the league—while also allowing 61 shots from set pieces.
Bournemouth, with strong set-piece delivery, are well-positioned to cause United problems in this area. Dean Huijsen, Bournemouth’s centre-back, has been a key aerial threat this season. Despite starting only five games and playing just 524 minutes, he has already registered five shots, four of which were headers. Hushen scored the decisive goal in Bournemouth’s 1-0 victory over Tottenham, demonstrating his ability to capitalise on set-piece opportunities.
On average, Huijsen is registering a shot every 100 minutes, which is impressive for a centre-back. Backing him to have a shot at 2.1 and a header on target at 8.50 presents excellent value, especially against a United side that continues to struggle defensively from dead-ball situations.
- Best Bet: Dean Huijsen to have 1+ shot at 2.1 with Skybet
- Best Bet: Dean Huijsen to have 1+ header on target at 8.5 with Skybet
Tottenham vs Liverpool
Tottenham’s defensive vulnerabilities are evident, having conceded in seven of their eight home games this season and in 12 of their 16 matches overall. The absence of their first-choice centre-back pairing, Micky van de Ven and Cristian Romero, adds to their struggles.
As a result, Archie Gray, typically a full-back or midfielder, is being deployed as a makeshift centre-back alongside Radu Dragusin. Behind them, Fraser Forster will continue in goal after a shaky performance against Manchester United, where two errors gifted United goals. His confidence looked severely affected toward the end of that match, raising questions about his form heading into this game.
Spurs are also vulnerable from set pieces, with the fourth-highest xGA from such situations this season (6.59). They have conceded 59 shots and five goals from set pieces, and the absence of players like Rodrigo Bentancur, who could help defensively in these situations, further weakens their setup. This creates a clear opportunity for Liverpool, particularly Virgil van Dijk, to exploit.
Van Dijk has registered 10 shots in 15 games this season, with eight coming from headers. Given Spurs’ defensive frailties and lack of a commanding presence in the penalty area, Van Dijk could dominate set-piece situations. Backing him at 3.75 to have a header on target on Sunday offers great value in what looks to be a prime opportunity for the Liverpool defender.
- Best Bet: Virgil van Dijk to 1+ headed shot on target at 3.75 with Skybet
Combining Van Dijk and Huijsen to have a header on target will give you odds of 31.88 with Skybet.
