INTERNATIONAL weekend always fills me with dread from a betting perspective but over the years I've found a way to make profit from these qualifying games.
It involves backing against those international minnows who seldom get themselves on the scoresheet. The likes of San Marino, Andorra, Gibraltar and Liechtenstein, whose resources and player pools are miniscule compared to much larger and more successful nations, tend not to trouble the opposition goalkeeper too much when up against a highly-ranked country.
This round of fixtures throws up three matches where minnows are likely to draw blank. Thereafter, it's all about making an educated guess as to how many they'll concede.
San Marino v Azerbaijan (Sunday, 5pm)
Andorra (more on them later) are the only European team to rank below San Marino in the FIFA rankings – and when I tell you that's a massive improvement for La Serenissima, who used to be joint bottom of the dubious ranking system until 2014, you'll get an appreciation of how big a gulf there is between them and some of the leading lights of European football.
So it won't surprise you to learn they've managed to avoid to defeat on just five occasions since they were officially recognised by UEFA in 1990. Three of those have been in competitive matches – draws with Turkey (1993), Latvia (2001) and Estonia (2014).
San Marino's last four qualifying campaign stats read like a horror story – P40 W0 D1 L39 F3 A190 Pts1. That's one goal scored every 13 games and an average of 4.75 conceded each match. “San Marino nil” should be the first thing on your betting slip this weekend.
Sunday's opposition don't rank much higher than San Marino at 136 but they're making progress and posted their best points tally (9) in World Cup 2016 qualifying. Worryingly though their record against the minnows isn't overly impressive. Draws with Liechtenstein, Luxembourg and Malta don't inspire much confidence ahead of their trip to San Marino but I'm backing them to have enough about them to secure the three points.
Azerbaijan aren't blessed with a lot of goals at international level and I suspect they'll be happy with any kind of victory to get the group stage off to a winning start. Take them to win 1-0, 2-0 or 3-0.
Spain v Liechtenstein (Monday, 7.45pm)
Seldom do you see odds of 10-1 quoted for a team in a football match but in all honesty if bookies priced up Liechtenstein's chances of winning in Spain at the same price as they did Leicester City winning the Premier League last season (5000-1) no one would bat an eyelid. The truth is there's more chance of me being called up by Gordon Strachan to lead the line for Scotland in Malta than “The Blue Reds” shocking Julen Lopetegui's side.
I don't really need to justify why Liechtenstein won't score in this one so let's move on to how many Spain might notch.
In the last four campaigns the only real whipping boys that Spain have been drawn against were Liechtenstein in Euro 2012 qualifying. That's handy for us as the Spaniards won 6-0 at home when the two sides met in Northern Spain in 2011 and we can expect more of the same on Monday.
Despite boasting a near-perfect qualification record in each of the last four campaigns, Spain's average goals per game is relatively low; 2010 = 2.8 goals, 2012 = 3.25 goals, 2014 = 1.75 goals & 2016 = 2.3 goals. But for a more accurate picture, let's look at how many they averaged against the bottom two teams in their qualifying groups; 2010 = 3.0 goals, 2012 = 4.0 goals, 2014 = 2.25 goals & 2016 = 3.25. At home those numbers rise again but not too significantly; 2010 = 3.5 goals, 2012 = 4.5 goals, 2014 = 2.0 goals & 2016 = 4.5 goals.
For me that points to being relatively conservative when predicting how many Spain will score. The sensible play would be to cover Spain to win 4-0, 5-0 or 6-0.
Andorra v Latvia (Tuesday, 7.45pm)
Andorra have competed in every UEFA Euro and FIFA World Cup qualifying campaign since 2000, winning just once, a 1-0 victory over Macedonia in 2006. They've scored just 23 goals in 92 competitive matches in that time (one goal every four matches) and only four of their current squad have ever scored a goal at this level. Despite having a better record at home than away the odds are in our favour that they won't score v Latvia.
The Latvians are no world-beaters but they should be good enough to win in Andorra. However, they failed to win a game in Euro 2016 qualifying and were held to a 1-1 draw at Liechtenstein in their World Cup 2014 campaign so that's a note of caution we should be aware of. On a more positive note they've recently beaten fellow minnows Gibraltar (5-0) and Luxembourg (3-1) in friendlies as well as recording a 2-1 over 125th-ranked Lithuania.
You have to go back to 2009 to find the last time Latvia scored more than 2 in a competitive match, that was a 3-2 win over Moldova on their way to an impressive 17-point haul. They also scored four against Luxembourg in that Group but since then they've struggled in front of goal.
With all that in mind the sensible play is for a 1-0, 2-0 or 3-0 win for the team from the Baltics.
Placing the bet
This bet requires you to perm each of the three results from each match as trebles; 3 x 3 x 3 = 27 bets in total. I placed the bet at Bet365 since Coral weren't offering odds on the correct in the Spain match.
- Azerbaijan to win 1-0 (9/2), 2-0 (7/2) or 3-0 (9/2)
- Spain to win 4-0 (9/2), 5-0 (11/2) or 6-0 (15/2)
- Latvia to win 1-0 (6/1), 2-0 (5/1) or 3-0 (13/2)
- 0.2 pts per bet = 0.2 x 27 = 5.4 pts stake
Best win possible is 70.1 pts. Worst win possible is 29.4 pts
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GambleAware
Like the look of this – something a bit different. 20p a line, £5.40 stake – let’s see how it goes!