FOR the second time in under a week French Ligue 2 delivered us an early Christmas present in the form of a goal in the first half of all 9 matches.
Fresh from Friday's 57-1 success it landed again last night with a late first-half goal glut. It was 40-1 but thanks to Grant and others who pointed out it was boosted to 70-1 in places. It's a bet I've been posting for a few seasons now but for it to land at such massive odds twice in a week is tremendous.
Disappointing my man Timo Kadewere missed a first-half penalty as that would have brought up both bets in the Le Havre game and punters weren't far off 28-1 over 1.5 goals and 700-1 goal in both halves.
Wednesday's card is small but it's action-packed with a full card of games from the Scottish Premiership, six matches from the EPL and five games from the French top flight.
The Scottish games I mentioned on Sunday night for early best price.
Ross County vs Hibs (7.45pm)
For the sixth time this season my NAP involving Hibs landed on Saturday as they fought out a 2-2 at home to Kilmarnock.
Given how frail Hibs have been defensively but how impressive they have been in attack it was no surprise there were four goals in a match the bookies got massively wrong.
Jack Ross will feel disappointed his Hibs team yet again didn't see the game out but have an opportunity for swift redemption as they travel north to play a Ross County side who are struggling at the moment.
Hibs have scored 2 or more now in seven consecutive games, their last seven have seen over 2.5 goals and both sides score and they are without a clean sheet since the opening day which is awful (14 games no clean sheet).
County have conceded two or more goals in their last eight games and they are fortunate St Johnstone, St Mirren and Hearts have been as equally poor although no one has collected fewer points in their last six games than County.
It's relegation form from the Staggies, without a win in nine but for goal backers their last eight games have all seen three or more goals and that's definitely in with a great chance tonight.
Hibs, as we know, are scoring goals for fun at the moment but can't defend – County can't defend but have seen over 2.5 goals in all 7 home matches this season. Should see both sides scores and another match involving these two that deliver at least three goals.
Recommended Bet:
- Over 2.5 goals
- 4/5 (Betfair) (NAP)
Kilmarnock vs St Johnstone (7.45pm)
These two clubs are in two different places at the moment.
Killie have kicked on under a new boss angelo Alessio and look certs to compete in the top six – defensively solid they have a terrific group of players and are tough to beat at Rugby Park.
St Johnstone on the other hand are bottom of the league, have shipped an embarrassing 33 goals and desperately need some experienced heads. It's essentially a back four of young boys and if you watch some of the goals we have conceded this season you'll understand why I highlighted Killie on Sunday night as being way overpriced.
We have conceded two or more goals in 80 per cent of our matches this season and travel to play a Kilmarnock side who have only lost once in their nine home games this. We've lost our last three visits to Rugby Park 2-0 and it will amaze me if we get anything from this match.
Strange things can happen in football but there are no holes in the Killie case – they should collect another three points. We are powder puff in attack and defensively we are all over the place.
Recommended Bets
- Kilmarnock to win
- 10/11 (Betfred)
- Kilmarnock to score 2+ goals
- 6/5 (Coral)
Aberdeen vs Rangers (7.45pm)
Match of the night under floodlights at Pittodrie as Rangers roll into town looking to maintain their terrific run of results. Aberdeen too is in fine fettle in what should be a lively affair between two sides where no love is lost.
Two bets – A bet builder and a Lewis Ferguson card
Recommended Bets
- Over 1.5 goals
- Over 3.5 cards
- Over 8.5 corners
- 1/1 (bet365 Betbuilder)
- Lewis Ferguson to be booked
- 1/1 (Skybet)
Total Goals Specials
It's a tremendous looking card for goals tonight and Sky Bet are offering total goals across Scotland, England, France and a featured list.
Fancy goals in all of them, a shame you can't double them.
You are getting 17+ goals in Scotland at 5-6 but I will take over 1.5 goals in all six games. The six games in England also look attractive with 19+ goals priced up at 10-11.
Could easily back all of them but opting for the following:
- All 6 Scottish Premiership games over 1.5 goals
- 10/3 (Skybet)
- All 6 EPL games 19+ goals to be scored
- 10/11 (Skybet)
I'm a St Johnstone diehard and football tipster from Perth, now living in Glasgow. I've been writing football previews and tips for Mr Fixit since 2015, with in-depth knowledge of Scottish football and betting markets, particularly goals and corners markets. You’ll often find me conversing on Twitter @GregBrowning84.
I’ve been all over the Kilmarnock tip since Sunday night, odds dropped last night from 1.950 to 1.775, but returned this morning again. Any idea why they didn’t keep shortening? Great work by the way.
Not sure, team news is fine. Good news though for anyone who wants to back Killie.
Cheers Mr F, it’s dropping again now ?
Well done Greg brilliant tipping.
Does anyone know what other bookies offer first half over 0.5 goals for ligue 2? It definitely seems better value than 1.5 for and doesn’t always show on skybet.
I do mine on either betfreds or billy hills shop terminal.
If it’s 8 games I do 7folds £2.50 costs £20 or if 9 games I do 8folds £2.25 costs £20.25.
It’s worth doing in case one lets you down.
Returned £441 off a £20.25 stake last night. Usually returns between £70-&140 if one lets you down depending on prices
Most bookies will offer it but you will need to go into each individual game and select it 1st half goals
Well done Newt ??
All bookies do it.Just do it match by match untill youve got all of them in an accumulator.If you do it on oddschecker you will see who pays most.Sometimes a certain bookie isn’t priced on odds checker so just go onsite and do it.Hills and lads offer a bet boost on accas.They will take it off you if you win to much tho.
I am on the featured list with Sky . 21 + goals 5/4. 22 + 13/8 Hopefully see a few at Celtic . PSG . Aberdeen . Good luck .
Best make sure you write them down this week eh Cocker! ? Good luck
No reason at all for the drift – we certainly haven’t signed any new defenders ?
Yeah the featured Games look good cocker ??
great podcast again greg that I had a listen to on the way to work this morning
one team that was not mentioned and I have spotted is Hamilton at home to st mirren on Saturday
interested in your take on that game?
From what I can see Hamilton are viewed as the outsiders according to the bookies but I cannot see any evidence to support that. st mirren are the worst away team in the division, when I’ve recently seen highlights of Hamilton games they seem to have given a good account (especially against rangers I think) and the H2H record shows they have a good record against Hamilton
You can get a boosted 7/2 on betfair for the Scottish Premier games going over 1.5
Over 1 goal in each of the premier league games tonight – 9/4 on William Hill vs 15/8 on SkyBet.
Will take the Hills special and will also have a dabble in the total goals markets on featured games as well as over 1.5 gls in each of the Scottish Prem games tonight.
Goodluck
Afternoon Greg.
Will be on your tips tonight.
Just a quick question for you and Mr F.
I’d say that a large majority of us regular site visitors, whether posting or just viewing, have an interest in Kilmarnock tonight.
I have a few different bets running on this game both singles and final legs in a few accas.
Having read your reasoning. Looked at H2H. Form. Team news. Weather. Home advantage.
How does a bookmaker ‘get it wrong’ to this extent? Obviously anything can happen and if it does go wrong for us tonight then the bookies have played a blinder. Do they do this every now and then as a leveller so to speak? To engage people and reel them in? Have we seen something that they haven’t or will they base a price on a law of average say?
Sorry for the long post I just wonder if there are any kind of mindgames/tactics used with prices like this?
Because if not…….£££££
They get it wrong on Scottish games because the oddsmakers are mostly based in England.
However, it’s only wrong if Killie win. Setting odds is about opinion and gut feeling as well as the usual factors.
If the price is wrong it will quickly be cut by weight of money to the correct odds which is why Greg advises early bets.
Thanks for the reply Mr F.
Interesting stuff regarding the Scottish markets.
A little insight goes a long way.
Keep up the good work and good luck tonight lads ?
I had the same thoughts as you wireflyer. I got very excited when I read Greg’s comments about Kilmarnock being overpriced and thought wow let’s take advantage and get on early. But I kept asking myself, do the bookies know something we don’t? Why would they do that? Well, we were right to doubt because not only did Kilmarnock fail to score 2+ goals, they couldn’t even manage to win the game outright. They also ruined the tip for all 6 matches to have over 1.5 goals.
It happens. The price was wrong but Killie still needed to perform and they didn’t. Every game is a gamble – still in profit for the night which is the main thing.
My local bookie priced up the City game at 11/8 for Overs and has a sheet that doesn’t change. Gladly going to have a bash at the Hibernian game. Cheers guys
Having a large bet on Ross County to win.
Done over 0.5 fhg on 5 french games kicking off at 6pm and btts in all matches-13/2 and 25/1. 1 of the matches as been postponed and the rest came in. Why do Skybet void the bet instead of settling on the prices of the other games?? Very frustrating.
Gaz, just commented on Mr F’s thread on tjisn
Really frustrating mate
I backed 12+ goals ( there been 10 in the first half ) and all games over 1.5 at 9/2
They don’t hide the fact the bet will
Be voided if any games are called off or postponed but very still. Very frustrating
I’ve had it in the past Greg where they’ve actually paid out when the total goals as come in so you might have some hope with that. But they won’t pay out on the others that’s for sure. I don’t see why they can’t settle at the appropriate price.
My bets have been voided – maybe different if the bet is already up and the game gets abandoned
Also I thought they had arule where if it’s rescheduled within 48 hours the bet still stands, so don’t understand why it’s been voided already.
Your bets were voided because you are Greg The Saint who keeps bashing them every day of the week and twice on a Sunday! How come they haven’t taken down your account yet? Have they restricted your account at all?