Monday night’s Premier League fixture sees West Ham United host Brentford at the London Stadium, with both sides looking to spark an upturn in form.
The Hammers remain in a period of transition under Nuno Espirito Santo, who replaced Graham Potter late in September. His first two league matches have brought a 0-0 draw at Everton and a 2-0 defeat away to Arsenal, leaving him searching for his first win since taking charge.
Nuno has used the international break to refine ideas and experiment with shape, running a behind-closed-doors friendly against Ipswich Town to test a new system.
The former Wolves and Forest boss has emphasised tightening up defensively, but he also knows the London Stadium has turned toxic in recent months and that reconnecting with the home crowd is vital. A win here would go a long way towards that goal.
From a statistical perspective, West Ham have struggled to impose themselves this season. Their xG ratio stands below 35%, and they rank among the lowest in the league for expected points (6.41). Offensively, they average just 0.96 xG per game, with defensive lapses a recurring issue by conceding 1.82 xGA on average.
Brentford, meanwhile, continue to offer a threat on the road. They have scored in 18 of their last 20 Premier League away games, and this season have found the net in six of seven matches, including all three on the road. Keith Andrew’s side enter the weekend on a run of inconsistent results but remain competitive, ranking mid-table for xG (1.07 for, 1.15 against).
Their open, front-foot style and ability to create chances from wide areas should make this a lively London derby, with both sides desperate for momentum heading into a busy winter schedule.
How the bookies view it: Hammers slight favourites
West Ham are slight favourites at 29/20, giving them around a 41% chance of taking all three points. The draw at 5/2 implies a 29% probability, while Brentford at 19/10 suggests a 34% chance of an away win.
That reflects how closely matched these two London clubs are, with recent results and underlying numbers pointing to a competitive contest.
The goal markets expect action. Over 2.5 goals at 17/20 implies a 54% likelihood, while both teams to score at 4/6 is priced at around 60%. Brentford’s record of scoring in 18 of their last 20 away games supports those odds, while West Ham have found the net in all but one of their home fixtures this season.
With both sides showing defensive vulnerability, the market clearly expects chances at both ends and another lively Premier League meeting between these two.
Head to Head: Honours even
West Ham and Brentford have met 11 times across all competitions since 2020, and the head-to-head record shows a fairly even contest, though Brentford have held the upper hand in recent years. From those 11 games, West Ham have won 4, drawn 1, and lost 6, scoring 12 goals and conceding 16, giving them an average goal difference of –0.36 per match.
Brentford’s dominance in league fixtures has been clear since their promotion, with five Premier League wins from the last eight against the Hammers. However, West Ham did claim a 4-2 victory in February 2024 at the London Stadium, one of their best attacking performances of that campaign. The reverse fixture earlier this season finished 1-1 in west London, showing how tight this matchup can be.
Overall, goals have been a recurring feature, with both teams scoring in six of the last eight league meetings between the two.
Players to watch: Thiago fouls not goals
Thiago looks a strong pick in the fouls market under Keith Andrews. The Brentford forward has made at least one foul in six of seven Premier League games this season and two or more in five, showing how central he is to their pressing and hold-up play.
Andrews has his side playing with intensity and aggression, and that has been reflected in the numbers with only three teams have committed more fouls than Brentford this season. Thiago has been heavily involved in that physical side, committing 15 fouls in total, averaging just over two per match.
He constantly backs into defenders, contests aerial duels, and presses from the front, all of which make him prone to mistimed challenges. Against a West Ham side featuring Lucas Paqueta and Jarrod Bowen, both of whom are among the league’s most-fouled players, Thiago to commit 2+ fouls looks a well-supported angle based on both his personal record and Brentford’s combative tactical setup.
Predicted line-ups
West Ham (4-1-3-1): Areola; Wan-Bissaka, Mavropanos, Kilman, Magassa; Diouf, Fernandes, Ward-Prowse; Bowen, Paqueta, Summerville.
Brentford (5-3-2): Kelleher; Ajer, Van den Berg, Collins, Hickey, Kayode; Yarmoliuk, Henderson, Damsgaard; Thiago, Schade.
Anything else catch the eye?
Both teams to score looks a strong betting angle for Monday night’s clash. Despite their current league positions, both sides have attacking qualities and defensive issues that point towards goals at both ends.
Brentford have scored in 18 of their last 20 Premier League away games and in six of seven league matches this season. They average 1.07 non-penalty xG per match and rank in the top half for big chances created, generating over six shots on target per game across their last four fixtures.
Away from home, they have scored in every game so far, hitting 2+ goals in two of those three trips. Their attacking style, built on aggressive pressing and set-piece delivery, consistently produces scoring chances regardless of opposition.
West Ham, meanwhile, have been much stronger going forward at home than away. They average 1.07 xG and around 13 shots per match at the London Stadium, but they have also conceded in all four home games this season.
Their defensive process under Nuno Espirito Santo remains a work in progress, with the team allowing 1.82 xGA per match and ranking among the league’s worst for shots faced inside the box.
While the atmosphere at the London Stadium has been tense, it often translates to end-to-end football rather than control. With both sides preferring to counter quickly and attack space, there should be opportunities at both ends. Brentford’s record of scoring in nearly every away game combined with West Ham’s vulnerability at home makes both teams to score an appealing selection.
Recent meetings between the sides have been competitive too, with four of the last six Premier League encounters seeing both teams find the net.
West Ham United vs Brentford Betting Tips & Predictions
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