France’s World Cup qualifying campaign in Group D begins on Friday evening when they meet Ukraine at the Tarczynski Arena in Wroclaw, Poland. It is the standout fixture in the group, with the top seeds facing the second seeds on neutral ground.
Ukraine arrive with question marks over their consistency. They qualified for Euro 2024 but exited in the group stage after a 3-0 loss to Romania, a 2-1 victory over Slovakia, and a goalless draw with Belgium. Since then, results have been uneven, highlighted by a 3-1 win at home to Belgium in the Nations League playoff before a heavy defeat in the return leg.
Friendlies have not been kind either, with defeats to Canada and New Zealand. The underlying numbers suggest a side that is hard to beat but often lacks the cutting edge, as seen in their 2022 qualifying run when they drew six of eight matches. Roman Yaremchuk remains the leading forward option, supported by Viktor Tsygankov. The balance of responsibility falls heavily on those two to find a breakthrough.
France enter in a far stronger position. They finished third at the Nations League finals in June, losing a thrilling 5-4 encounter with Spain before defeating Germany 2-0. In their qualifying campaign they conceded just three goals while averaging 1.8 xG per match. Didier Deschamps has confirmed he will step down after the 2026 finals, so this represents his final qualifying cycle in charge.
Kylian Mbappe is the obvious star and will no doubt be at the forefront of the French attack. The squad remains largely stable, though Antoine Griezmann and Hugo Lloris have both retired from international duty, leaving Mike Maignan as the undisputed number one.
How the bookies view it: France to win
France are strong favourites for this clash, priced at 2/5, which equates to a 71% chance of victory, while Ukraine are 8/1 outsiders and the draw is 4/1. The goals markets suggest a fairly balanced view, with over 2.5 goals at 41/50 (55% chance) and both teams to score at 28/25 (47%).
That points to an expectation of France controlling the game, but without a guarantee of a high-scoring encounter. Ukraine’s low output in recent qualifiers makes their big price understandable, while France’s defensive record keeps both teams to score close to a 50-50 proposition.
Head to Head: France dominate
Ukraine and France have met regularly over the past decade, and the record leans heavily towards the French. In World Cup qualifying for Qatar, both games ended level, with 1-1 draws in Paris and Kyiv, showing Ukraine’s ability to frustrate them. Their most famous clash came in the 2014 playoffs, when Ukraine won 2-0 at home only to see France overturn the tie with a 3-0 victory in Paris.
At Euro 2012, France also came out on top with a 2-0 group stage win in Donetsk. Friendlies have been far more one-sided, with France running out 7-1 winners in 2020 and 4-1 in Donetsk back in 2011. Across these seven matches, France have taken four wins, Ukraine just one, with two draws. The goals tally tells the story too, with France scoring 19 to Ukraine’s six.
Players to watch: Mbappe shots look stand out.
Kylian Mbappe looks a standout option in the shots on target market, with his recent France record underlining the value. He has managed at least two shots on target in five of his last six internationals, including big games against Spain, Germany and Croatia. Over that stretch he has averaged more than five attempts per match, with nearly three of those landing on target.
Even when France have struggled, Mbappe continues to test the goalkeeper regularly, with his pace and movement ensuring he generates multiple efforts. Skybet currently lead the market at 8/11 for 2+ shots on target, which already looks appealing given his consistency.
For those seeking a stronger return, combining Mbappe 2+ shots on target with under 4.5 total match goals boosts the price to 11/10, making it a very backable option in what is expected to be a tight qualifier.
Predicted line-ups
Ukraine (4-2-3-1): Trubin; Konoplya, Zabarnyi, Matvienko, Mykolenko; Kaliuzhny, Zinchenko; Tsygankov, Shaparenko, Sudakov; Dovbyk
France (4-3-3): Maignan; Kounde, Upamecano, Konate, Hernandez; Tchouameni, Rabiot; Olise, Dembele, Thuram; Mbappe
Anything else catch the eye?
Backing France on the double chance, with France to score and under four match goals, looks the most sensible play in Wroclaw. The market is heavily influenced by the difference in attacking efficiency between the two sides. France generated 1.63 xG per game in their last Nations League campaign, compared to Ukraine’s 0.96. That gap is decisive, particularly given Ukraine’s consistent struggles to turn possession into clear chances.
Shots and chance creation figures back this up. France average 13.4 shots per game with 5.2 on target, while Ukraine sit at 9.1 shots with only 3.1 on target. In terms of big chances, France averaged 2.2 per 90 minutes in the Nations League, Ukraine only 0.9. That disparity suggests France are far likelier to score even if the match is tight.
As for the goals line, under four makes sense historically. Seven of Ukraine’s last eight competitive games have finished under this number. France also tend to keep things contained in qualifiers, with 11 of their last 13 ending below four goals. Their defence conceded at a rate of just 0.38 goals per game in the last group phase, the second-best record in UEFA.
The double chance covers the unlikely event of a stalemate. Ukraine are well organised at home or on neutral ground, but France’s superior xPTS from recent campaigns with 17.6 compared to Ukraine’s 12.3 which highlights the gulf between them. Combining France to avoid defeat, France to score, and under four total goals ties together the statistical profiles of both sides into a cohesive bet.
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