There are some irregularities in the Bundesliga standings, like the fact St Pauli are 4th and Stuttgart 12th. But this could all change after the two teams meet at the MHPArena on Friday.
Stuttgart's otherwise tragic season was saved at the last minute with their unexpected triumph in the DFB Pokal in 2024/25. For this reason alone, the Swabians will play in Europe again, but their campaign starts with hints at potential problems. Stuttgart managed a single win in the Bundesliga after three rounds, while losing to Union Berlin and Freiburg. The latter managed to come from behind too, scoring three goals between the 81st and 92nd minutes.
And then St Pauli, who escaped relegation by three points last season, are currently 4th in the league and remain unbeaten. While Augsburg and Hamburger are not top opposition at this point, the Neighbourhood Kickers managed a 3-3 draw against Borussia Dortmund. St Pauli have looked dangerous in attack and will certainly have their chances away at Stuttgart.
How the bookies view it: The odds feel very wrong
While the hosts are underperforming, it is unmistakable that they have a far stronger squad as individuals and the home advantage. Therefore, bookmakers gave their support to them, pricing them at 3/4. Alternatively, you can pick the draw at 16/5 or St Pauli at 33/10.
Recent head to head: Stuttgart's dominance is in the past
The previous campaign revived this ancient rivalry, as the teams had not met in many years. Back in the day, they were regular opponents in the two highest tiers. And if we go back a little while, we can confirm that the Swabians have an overwhelming advantage in the H2Hs. For instance, they won eight of the last 10 meetings. But in most recent times, the teams exchanged a 1-0 win each last season.
Players to watch: Nubel has been one of the busiest keepers
There are quite a few options when it comes to player-involved bets. For instance, we'd bet on Alexander Nubel to make 3+ saves in the match at 13/10 in Betano. For your information, he made at least three saves in 3/4 appearances this season. The high number of saves also reveals the problems at Stuttgart's defence, and there are players at St Pauli, who are prepared to do damage.
Andreas Houtondji, for instance, appears to have finally found his place and form after his previous loan at St. Liege was unsuccessful. He finished last season with four goals and he already has three after only three rounds. He scored a goal in four of his last five matches for club and country, making him an unexpected threat for Stuttgart.
Probable line-ups
Stuttgart: Nubel, Mittelstadt, Chabot, Jeltsch, Vagnoman, Karazor, Stiller, El Khannouss, Tomas, Leweling, Demirovic
St Pauli: Vasilj, Dzwigala, Smith, Wahl, Oppie, Fujita, Sands, Pyrka, Sinani, Houtonjdi, Pereira Lage
Anything else catch the eye?
One way or another, expect a very tight match. In fact, much closer than the odds suggest. St Pauli have played some great football, while Stuttgart have mostly been surviving the 90 minutes every time and unfortunately, with little success.
We'd go as far as betting on the double chance for a draw or St Pauli to win. We want to believe that the visitors have what it takes, but just to be safe, we'd pick the Double Chance. And regardless of the end result, we will see goals from both teams.
GambleAware