Slovenia take on Austria in the opening game of one of the most competitive groups in the UEFA Nations League.
Both sides have a point to prove after their performance at EURO 2024. Slovenia were one of the pleasant surprises of the tournament after making it to the ⅛ finals from one of the hardest groups. Three consecutive draws against England, Serbia, and Denmark earned them a match against Portugal, which went as far as the penalties.
Ralf Rangnick’s Austria reached the same stage in the competition but made a shocking exit after a 1-2 loss to Turkey. One could easily say that Austria were supposed to win that match after looking at the stats. Burschen had made 21 goal attempts and finished with 2.73 xG next to only six goal attempts and the 0.87 xG of Turkey.
Austria are the favourite for promotion in this group of League B but Slovenia have what it takes to cause problems and potentially ruin their plans.
How the bookies view it: Austria overpriced
Despite being the away side, Austria are Betfred’s favourite with 23/20. After Slovenia’s four draws at EURO 2024, the 12/5 odds for a tie look appealing, while the home win has been valued at 21/10.
Recent head-to-head: One-sided rivalry
These national teams have clashed three times in recorded history and all contests happened in 2018 and 2019. Austria kept a clean sheet across all three games and also won them. However, all of these results precede Rangnick’s era and Slovenia look far more decent now than the most recent clash in 2019.
Players to watch: New names in both squads
Matjaz Kek will enter the new competition with an almost identical squad. There have been few injuries among his usual group in recent months and he will have his best line-up at his disposal. The only new names in the squad are Nino Zugelj and Erik Janza. Watch out for Benjamin Sesko, who has contributed 17 goals across 33 appearances.
Ralf Rangnick has made significant changes to his squad and will give chances to five new players. There could be problems in defence as Lienhart and Danso will not be available for this international break. Watch out for Austria’s Christoph Baumgartner. He has been behind several of the team’s biggest wins in recent years.
Probable line-ups
Slovenia: Oblak, Karnicnik, Bijol, Drkusic, Balkovec, Stojanovic, Cerin, Elsnik, Mlakar, Sesko, Sporar
Austria: Pentz, Posch, Wober, Daniliuc, Mwene, Laimer, Baumgartner, Sabitzer, Wimmer, Arnautovic, Grull
Anything else catch the eye?
Slovenia’s compact defensive style has not helped them score plenty of goals. Expect them to be on the backfoot against Austria again, which could result in a straightforward under 2.5, currently valued at 4/5.
At the same time, Austria’s defensive efforts have been in vain lately, with the team conceding at least one goal in the last seven matches. They also conceded five in four games at the EUROs. The absence of Kevin Danso and Phillip Lienhart could open more chances for the home side.
This UEFA Nations League match between Slovenia and Austria will be played on Sep 6, 2024 and kick off at 19:45. Check below for our tipsters best Slovenia vs Austria prediction. You may also visit our dedicated betting previews section for the most up to date previews.
