Slovakia host Germany at Tehelne pole in Bratislava on Thursday evening in a World Cup qualifying Group A clash that pits two nations at very different levels of the international ladder. For Slovakia, ranked 52nd in the world, this fixture comes with the weight of expectation at home but the knowledge they face a side unbeaten in qualifiers since 2021.
Francesco Calzona’s side enter the campaign on the back of a mixed Nations League run. They won four of six games against Estonia and Azerbaijan but came up short against Sweden and then lost their promotion play-off to Slovenia. Their home form shows resilience, with just four defeats in their last 17, though goals have been an issue against better nations. A backline anchored by Milan Skriniar and Stanislav Lobotka’s composure in midfield will again be crucial.
Germany, ranked ninth, arrive with a formidable qualifying record. Across their last six qualification campaigns they have played 58 games, winning 47, drawing nine and losing only twice. Julian Nagelsmann has overseen an upturn in intensity, with a Nations League campaign last year that included a 7–0 thrashing of Bosnia and a 5–0 win over Hungary. Their last 19 fixtures have brought 11 wins and just two defeats, both against top-five ranked sides Portugal and France.
Nagelsmann has freshened the squad with newcomers Finn Dahmen, Nnamdi Collins and Paul Nebel, while Kai Havertz is ruled out with injury. Joshua Kimmich may be restored to a central midfield role, and Germany’s blend of experience and new blood looks well balanced. For Slovakia, finding attacking sparks against such pedigree is the challenge as they look to frustrate and counter.
How the bookies view it: Germany to win with goals
Germany are clear favourites at 1/2, which carries an implied probability of 66.7%, while Slovakia are 6/1 at 14.3% and the draw is 18/5 at 21.7%. The goals markets suggest an open contest, with over 2.5 goals at 7/10 implying 58.8% and both teams to score at 22/25 implying 53.5%.
The prices underline Germany’s superiority but also indicate the bookmakers expect Slovakia to have a reasonable chance of finding the net.
Head to Head: Honours even
Germany and Slovakia have met twice in recent years, with each side claiming one win. In May 2016, Slovakia stunned Germany 3–1 in a friendly in Augsburg, overturning an early deficit with three unanswered goals. Just a month later at Euro 2016, the two nations met in the round of 16, where Germany produced a dominant 3–0 victory through goals from Jerome Boateng, Mario Gomez and Julian Draxler.
The head-to-head is therefore balanced, but Germany’s win came on the biggest stage, while Slovakia’s success was in a pre-tournament warm-up.
Players to watch: Goretzka to get Germany going
Leon Goretzka looks a strong candidate to record at least two shots against Slovakia. His role under Nagelsmann has been more progressive, and the recent Nations League finals showed his willingness to step forward. Across four matches from March to June he attempted nine shots, averaging 2.65 per 90 minutes, including four in the away leg against Italy and two on target against Portugal. Even when deployed deeper, he consistently gets into advanced positions, carrying the ball into the final third and supporting Fullkrug.
Slovakia are organised defensively but concede territory and possession against top sides, which suits Goretzka’s late runs from midfield. Germany are expected to dominate the ball in Bratislava, and with Wirtz and Gnabry creating space around the box, Goretzka should find shooting opportunities, making two or more attempts highly achievable given his recent output.
Predicted line-ups
Slovakia (4-3-3): Dubravka, Pekarik, Skriniar, Hancko, Obert, Lobotka, Hrosovsky, Duda, Schranz, Bozenik, Haraslin
Germany (3-4-3): Nubel, Tah, Rudiger, Koch, Kimmich, Goretzka, Gross, Raum, Gnabry, Fullkrug, Wirtz
Anything else catch the eye?
Germany have been ruthless in qualification for over a decade, winning 47 of their last 58 games across six campaigns. They average close to three goals per qualifier and have only twice failed to hit the two-goal mark in their last ten. A bet on them to win and for the game to produce at least two goals has strong foundations.
Their Nations League campaign showed both their cutting edge and consistency. They scored 18 times in six group matches, averaging three shots on target per game more than their opponents, and created 17 big chances across that span. Against Bosnia they produced 21 shots, 11 on target, while against Hungary they found the net five times from an xG tally of 3.2. Even against Italy in the knockout stages, Germany scored five across two games with an xG of 5.5.
Slovakia’s defensive shape is solid against mid-tier sides but their numbers soften when stepping up in class. In their Nations League play-off with Slovenia they managed just three shots on target across 210 minutes. Their xPTS from that campaign was 7.9 compared to Germany’s 13.6, a clear indicator of the gulf.
Germany have scored in 18 of their last 19 fixtures, blanking only once. Given the attacking metrics, their ability to create volume and quality chances, and Slovakia’s struggles to sustain threat against elite sides, backing Germany to win with over 1.5 goals looks a sound approach.
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