Shkendija face Ludogorets for the final ticket to the Europa League, after both teams suffered humiliating defeats in the Champions League qualifications last week. Which Balkan side will make it to the League Phase?
It's fair to say that Shkendija overachieved in the top-tier qualifications by reaching the penultimate round. Especially after taking out the Romanian champions, FCSB, with 3-1 on aggregate. But Qarabag proved to be an insurmountable challenge, hence the back-to-back losses with 6-1 on aggregate. And now, the Ballists enter yet another qualification round as significant underdogs.
Ludogorets have become a regular participant in UEFA's competitions, reaching the group stage of either forum in 11 of the last 12 seasons. On rare occasions, they have made it even further, like reaching the Round of 16 in the EL in 2014.
The Bulgarian side suffered a 3-0 loss away at Ferencvaros to kill their ambitions for Champions League football, but their international experience will be key against a far smaller side like Shkendija.
How the bookies view it: They lost faith in the Ballists
Bookmakers once again almost ruled out Shkendija's chances completely, putting them at 3/1 to win as hosts. Meanwhile, the Eagles are available at 4/5, while the draw has been priced at 23/10.
Recent head to head: A new Balkan rivalry
Shkendija have had few opportunities to perform internationally and have never met Ludogorets in a competitive fixture. This will be the first clash between the two Balkan sides.
Players to watch: Tamba scored twice last week
Few players in the two squads have left a lasting impression with their performance so far, which makes picking a betting target far more difficult. Shkendija's Fabrice Tamba has been improving with every match and has risen to the occasion multiple times in the qualis. His goal helped the team beat TNS in the first round, and then he scored Shkendija's only goal away at Qarabag last week. He will be Ludogorets' biggest worry in this match.
Meanwhile, we should put some respect on Ivaylo Chochev's name. The 32-year-old veteran has a huge role in Ludogorets' midfield this season and already has three goals across all competitions.
Probable line-ups
Shkendija: Gaye, Trumci, Cake, Fetai, Webster, Tamba, Ramadani, Alhassan, Zejnullai, Krasniqi, Ibraimi
Ludogorets: Padt, Nedyalkov, Kurtulus, Verdon, Son, Chochev, Duarte, Kaloc, Marcus, Caio, Bille
Anything else catch the eye?
Although both clubs come from small Balkan countries, there is a huge gap in class between them. For starters, let's look at the squad values – Shkendija are worth around €5.50 million, while Ludogorets' squad is worth over €50 million. The Eagles have quite a few solid international players with years of experience in Europe.
With this said, we expect to see Ludogorets in the Europa League once again, but they will need both legs to achieve it. Shkendija are hard to beat at home and have proven they can score goals against far better teams. Meanwhile, Ludogorets didn't win either of their three away games in Europe this season. We expect a couple of goals and another draw at full-time.
GambleAware