Serbia host England on Tuesday night in Belgrade in what promises to be a crucial World Cup qualifier at the Rajko Mitic Stadium. The game pits Group K leaders England, who sit top with four wins from four, against a Serbia side who climbed back into contention following their hard-fought 1-0 win away in Latvia.
Dragan Stojkovic’s team had gone eight away games without victory before that result, and although they were far from their best, Dusan Vlahovic’s early goal proved decisive. Serbia have gathered seven points from their opening three qualifiers, sitting second with a game in hand. Their xPTS of 6.9 from those games is almost identical to their actual return, showing they have broadly matched expectations.
While Vlahovic and Aleksandar Mitrovic remain central to their attack, the introduction of young midfielders like Ivan Ilic and Lazar Samardzic has injected energy. There are still defensive issues to iron out, with Serbia conceding over 1.2 xG per game so far.
England, under Thomas Tuchel, have been efficient rather than exciting. A 2-0 win over Andorra at Villa Park extended their perfect record and kept them yet to concede a goal in the group. However, xG data suggests their dominance has not been fully convincing, with just 2.21 xG against Andorra and several attacking players struggling for fluency. Elliot Anderson’s debut provided a rare bright spot, while Marcus Rashford, on loan at Barcelona, again looked short on confidence.
The visitors may be top of the group and strong favourites, but Tuchel’s reign has been marked by a lack of attacking identity. In hostile conditions in Belgrade, this clash with Serbia will represent his sternest test yet and could go a long way towards defining the trajectory of England’s campaign.
How the bookies view it: Three Lions favourites
The odds for Serbia vs England make England the favourites at 4/5, giving them a 55% implied chance of winning, while Serbia are priced at 4/1 with a 20% chance and the draw at 27/10, which suggests a 27% likelihood. Goals are not strongly expected, with over 2.5 goals at 23/20, implying around a 48% chance, while both teams to score is set at evens for Yes and 17/2 for No, indicating the market leans slightly towards a low-scoring game but still expects chances for both sides.
Overall, the pricing points to a tight match, with England fancied to edge it but Serbia’s home advantage keeping them in the picture.
Head to Head: England dominate in recent history
England and Serbia have met only a handful of times as independent nations, with England holding the upper hand. The most recent encounter came at Euro 2024, where Jude Bellingham’s early header gave England a 1–0 win in Gelsenkirchen. Before that, the sides met in a 2003 friendly at Leicester, which England also won 2–1.
Overall, Serbia have yet to record a victory against England in their current form, leaving the head-to-head record firmly in England’s favour.
Players to watch: Noni to shoot
Noni Madueke has yet to score for England, but his numbers make him an appealing pick in the shots market. Over his last five international appearances he has attempted 10 shots, averaging two per game, with three on target. That includes three efforts in the 1–0 win over Andorra in June, where he also supplied the decisive assist. Tuchel has started him in four of those fixtures, and his role drifting in off the right gives him both freedom and volume.
On Tuesday he will most often be matched with Strahinja Terzic down Serbia’s left. The wing-back is keen to get forward, and any gaps left behind him should give Madueke opportunities to drive inside and shoot. England’s attack under Tuchel has lacked fluency, but Madueke has been one of the brighter outlets, recording more touches in the box than either Marcus Rashford or Anthony Gordon in recent qualifiers.
Bookmakers have set his line at over 1.5 shots, which is priced at 4/6. That may feel a little short for some backers, but it reflects the consistency of his output. To boost the return, combining it with under five goals pushes the price to 4/5. Given both sides’ recent low-scoring tendencies with Serbia’s qualifiers are averaging 1.67 goals per game and England have yet to concede in this group this feels like a sensible addition.
With Kane occupying Serbia’s centre-backs, Madueke should get the room he needs to shoot at least twice. Even without a goal, his profile suggests clearing this line is well
Predicted line-ups
Serbia (3-5-2): Petrovic; Milenkovic, Erakovic, Pavlovic; Zivkovic, Gudelj, Maksimovic, Samardzic, Terzic; Mitrovic Vlahovic
England (4-2-3-1): Pickford; James, Guehi, Burn, Lewis-Skelly; Anderson, Rice; Madueke, Rogers, Gordon; Kane
Anything else catch the eye?
Recent performances from both Serbia and England suggest that under 2.5 goals is the most logical betting angle for Tuesday’s meeting. Serbia’s 1-0 win away to Latvia was typical of their approach so far with tight games where chances are scarce.
Across their three qualifiers, Serbia’s matches are averaging just 1.67 goals per game, with an xG for of 1.08 and an xG against of 1.23. Their victory in Riga summed it up: they produced 1.39 xG but allowed only 0.70 at the other end, reflecting how games often lack attacking flow.
England are in a similar place under Thomas Tuchel, with results positive but displays uninspiring. Their 2-0 win over Andorra may look comfortable on paper, but they managed just 11 shots, seven of which hit the target, and their xG came in at 1.94.
Across the group stage so far, England average just 2.0 goals per game despite recording 83% possession against Andorra. Big chance creation is also down, from six in June’s 1-0 win over Andorra to only four this time out, showing a lack of cutting edge.
The head-to-head meeting at Euro 2024 ended in a 1-0 England win, further evidence that this fixture often produces cagey affairs. Serbia will likely look to stay compact, as they did against Latvia, while England’s struggles in open play continue to limit their attacking threat.
The odds reflect expectations of a low-scoring contest, and with both sides favouring structure over risk, under 2.5 goals looks a strong play. Neither team has shown the ruthlessness to run away with games, and with Serbia’s defensive set-up and England’s sluggish attacking patterns, this clash in Belgrade should follow the same pattern.
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