Roma host AC Milan at the Stadio Olimpico in a crucial Serie A clash with European qualification at stake. While this is not the final round of fixtures, it’s the penultimate weekend, and both sides are running out of time.
Roma can still reach the Champions League, but they must beat Milan and hope other results go in the favour. AC Milan, currently eighth, also need a win and favourable results elsewhere to have any hope of qualifying for Europe.
Roma come into this fixture as one of the form sides in Italy. Under Claudio Ranieri, they have W15-D5-L4, with three of those defeats coming in his first four games. Only Inter and Napoli have collected more points in that time, and no team has conceded fewer goals. Roma are unbeaten in their last 11 home matches, winning nine and conceding just five goals. They havd kept nine clean sheets in their last 13 overall and have only failed to score twice at home.
Milan rank fifth in the away table with W9-D2-L7, but four of their five clean sheets came against the bottom six. Against top-half sides away, they have gone W2-D1-L5. Despite strong xG numbers and ranking second in xPTS away, their defensive issues and patchy form could cost them again.
How the bookies view it: Roma to edge it
Bookmakers have Roma priced at 13/10 to win, reflecting their strong home form and impressive run under Claudio Ranieri. AC Milan are slight underdogs at 21/10, with the draw offered at 27/10. These prices suggest a tightly contested match, with a slight edge given to Roma due to their unbeaten home streak and Milan’s mixed away record.
The implied probabilities point to a 43.5% chance of a Roma win, 32.3% for Milan, and 27% for the draw — underlining how closely matched the teams are. Both teams to score is priced at 3/5, while over 2.5 goals is 7/10, reflecting expectations of an open game. That aligns with recent head-to-head history, where both teams have scored in 11 of the last 12 meetings.
Head to head: Card heavy
AS Roma and AC Milan have a long-standing rivalry, with their last 61 meetings producing 22 wins for Milan, 19 for Roma, and 20 draws — a near-even split that reflects the fixture’s competitiveness. Their first Serie A clash this season ended 1-1 at San Siro, while Roma won 2-1 in April’s Europa League quarter-final, advancing 3-1 on aggregate. The rivalry consistently delivers drama, with both teams scoring in 11 of the last 12 meetings. It’s also been a fiery contest, averaging 7.33 cards across those games, with both sides receiving at least two bookings in all 12.
Players to watch: Pulisic the main man for Milan
Christian Pulisic has started 27 Serie A games this season, registering at least one shot in 22 of them and two or more in 13. He has averaged just under 1.6 shots per start, highlighting his regular involvement in AC Milan’s attack. Over those starts, he has produced 43 shots with 20 on target, scoring 11 goals and providing nine assists in what has been a career-best season.
Ladbrokes and Coral have priced him at 5/6 to have 2+ shots — generous considering he has hit that mark in nearly 48% of starts. Bet365, by contrast, offer just 4/11, suggesting the 5/6 represents strong value in a key fixture.
Predicted line-ups
Roma will be without Lorenzo Pellegrini and Paulo Dybala, both of whom are side lined and unavailable for selection. On the Milan side, Samuel Chukwueze, Warren Bondo, and Riccardo Sottil are all ruled out through injury. While none are guaranteed starters, their unavailability limits Milan's depth and options off the bench.
Roma (3-4-2-1): Svilar; Celik, Mancini, Ndicka; Rensch, Cristante, Kone, Angelino; Soule, Shomurodov; Dovbyk
AC Milan (3-4-2-1): Maignan; Tomori, Gabbia, Pavlovic; Jimenez, Fofana, Reijnders, Hernandez; Pulisic, Leao; Gimenez
Anything else catch the eye?
Roma’s Serie A matches this season have averaged 4.25 cards, with the Giallorossi receiving at least one booking in 29 of their 36 league fixtures, including 14 of 18 at home. Interestingly, every visiting team to the Olimpico has collected at least one card, averaging 2.67 cards per game. In fact, 14 of those 18 visiting teams have picked up two or more bookings.
AC Milan have also been consistently involved in carded contests. They have collected at least one card in 31 of their 36 league games, with an away average of 1.56 cards and at least one shown in 16 of their 18 road trips. Like Roma, their matches also average 4.25 total cards.
The referee for this match, Marco Piccinini, has overseen 15 Serie A games this season, averaging 3.73 cards per match. Both teams have been carded in 10 of those 15 outings, which adds weight to the expectation of a competitive and physical game. Given the recent head-to-head history and what’s at stake, the stats support a high potential for cards on both sides once again.
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